I GOT SCREWED BY WIS!!! Topic

mrpolo09
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Quote: Originally posted by colonels19 on 1/18/2010Lol...ok thenLet's compare the dice throwing to free throws.  The odds of making a free throw are 50-50....let's say a player makes 90% of his free throws over the course of an entire season...the odds are still 50-50, but isn't it more likely for him to make one or both because of how good he is/has become shooting free throws?  Its just like this woman with the dice....let's say before she got to Atlantic City, she's practicing and throwing a 7 or what have you 90% of the time.  I'm not sure what the exact probability of throwing a 7 is...5% or so...less?....but if the odds are still 1 out of 20 or what have you isn't she more prone to throw more consecutive 7s because she's practiced throwing 7s or what have you?  The odds may be the same, but the likelyhood of her throwing a 7 over Joe Blow is significantly greater.On top of all of this, he's comparing real life randomness with sim randomness which he admits how real life has more random factors.


the odds of making a FT are NOT 50/50. what the hell are you talking about?
1/18/2010 5:59 PM
arssanguinus
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Quote: Originally posted by colonels19 on 1/18/2010Lol...ok thenLet's compare the dice throwing to free throws.  The odds of making a free throw are 50-50....let's say a player makes 90% of his free throws over the course of an entire season...the odds are still 50-50, but isn't it more likely for him to make one or both because of how good he is/has become shooting free throws?  Its just like this woman with the dice....let's say before she got to Atlantic City, she's practicing and throwing a 7 or what have you 90% of the time.  I'm not sure what the exact probability of throwing a 7 is...5% or so...less?....but if the odds are still 1 out of 20 or what have you isn't she more prone to throw more consecutive 7s because she's practiced throwing 7s or what have you?  The odds may be the same, but the likelyhood of her throwing a 7 over Joe Blow is significantly greater.On top of all of this, he's comparing real life randomness with sim randomness which he admits how real life has more random factors.

If the guy makes ninety percent of his free throws the odds are 90 - 10, not fifty fifty. . .
1/18/2010 6:02 PM
colonels19
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Quote: Originally Posted By mrpolo09 on 1/18/2010
Quote: Originally posted by colonels19 on 1/18/2010
Lol...ok then

Let's compare the dice throwing to free throws. The odds of making a free throw are 50-50....let's say a player makes 90% of his free throws over the course of an entire season...the odds are still 50-50, but isn't it more likely for him to make one or both because of how good he is/has become shooting free throws? Its just like this woman with the dice....let's say before she got to Atlantic City, she's practicing and throwing a 7 or what have you 90% of the time. I'm not sure what the exact probability of throwing a 7 is...5% or so...less?....but if the odds are still 1 out of 20 or what have you isn't she more prone to throw more consecutive 7s because she's practiced throwing 7s or what have you? The odds may be the same, but the likelyhood of her throwing a 7 over Joe Blow is significantly greater.

On top of all of this, he's comparing real life randomness with sim randomness which he admits how real life has more random factors.


the odds of making a FT are NOT 50/50. what the hell are you talking about
Two things happen when you shoot a free throw, you make or you miss...50-50
1/18/2010 6:02 PM
mrpolo09
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and the fact that you are arguing that people can perfect a dice throw is completely moronic. YES, it can be done. NO, it cannot be done in a casino. You would be kicked out in 2 min...


Buddy, you're an idiot. but if you can find someone, anyone than can increase their chance at throwing a seven from 16% to even 25%, you could easily be a millionaire.

Craps in a casino is about as controlled of an environment as you can get. To argue that its not, just because your idiot neighbor bought some trick dice is utterly moronic.
1/18/2010 6:02 PM
arssanguinus
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Colonels, you REALLY don't have a clue about probability if thats how you think about it./
1/18/2010 6:03 PM
colonels19
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Quote: Originally Posted By zhawks on 1/18/2010
Quote: Originally Posted By mrpolo09 on 1/18/2010

it was this lady's second time EVER playing craps. stop nitpicking.



That is all he can do. If it doesn't fit with his argument he throws it out as false info.

Who's to say that she didn't or hadn't practiced before....yes it very well could have been her second time playing craps IN A CASINO, but that doesn't mean that she didn't have prior experience. How exactly do you catch a "cheat" that has programmed themselves to throw the same way time and again. Its not like card counting or machine rigging.
1/18/2010 6:04 PM
colonels19
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Quote: Originally Posted By mrpolo09 on 1/18/2010
and the fact that you are arguing that people can perfect a dice throw is completely moronic. YES, it can be done. NO, it cannot be done in a casino. You would be kicked out in 2 min...


Buddy, you're an idiot. but if you can find someone, anyone than can increase their chance at throwing a seven from 16% to even 25%, you could easily be a millionaire.

Craps in a casino is about as controlled of an environment as you can get. To argue that its not, just because your idiot neighbor bought some trick dice is utterly moronic.



I saw it on the History Channel, not from my next door neighbor...I think you're rather silly for taking this 154 roll streak at face value, thinking this is only her second time playing craps....man you're easy. If things seem too good to be true, they probably are.
1/18/2010 6:06 PM
mrpolo09
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Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 1/18/2010
Quote: Originally Posted By mrpolo09 on 1/18/2010

Quote: Originally posted by colonels19 on 1/18/2010

Lol...ok then

Let's compare the dice throwing to free throws. The odds of making a free throw are 50-50....let's say a player makes 90% of his free throws over the course of an entire season...the odds are still 50-50, but isn't it more likely for him to make one or both because of how good he is/has become shooting free throws? Its just like this woman with the dice....let's say before she got to Atlantic City, she's practicing and throwing a 7 or what have you 90% of the time. I'm not sure what the exact probability of throwing a 7 is...5% or so...less?....but if the odds are still 1 out of 20 or what have you isn't she more prone to throw more consecutive 7s because she's practiced throwing 7s or what have you? The odds may be the same, but the likelyhood of her throwing a 7 over Joe Blow is significantly greater.

On top of all of this, he's comparing real life randomness with sim randomness which he admits how real life has more random factors.


the odds of making a FT are NOT 50/50. what the hell are you talking about?
Two things happen when you shoot a free throw, you make or you miss...50-5
please do me a favor and verify this statement you just made. if this is not a joke and you truly believe this. . . . . then you are a complete and utter moron.

and you're trying to come up with and "sell" a ranking system? you have zero grap of simple mathematics. You had me going though. You have made a couple valid and logical points. but its all thrown out the window with this one post.

You are really dumb, sorry.
1/18/2010 6:08 PM
colonels19
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The odds of making a free throw are 50-50...this isn't debatable, its fact....LOL!
1/18/2010 6:09 PM
arssanguinus
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Quote: Originally posted by colonels19 on 1/18/2010The odds of making a free throw are 50-50...this isn't debatable, its fact....LOL!

Um. .COlonels. . you haven't even a leg to stand on here at all.

Just because there are two possible outcomes doesn't make something a fifty fifty probability, which is something that even a elementary school grasp of mathematics should tell you. ..
1/18/2010 6:14 PM
tkimble
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Quote: Originally posted by colonels19 on 1/18/2010The odds of making a free throw are 50-50...this isn't debatable, its fact....LOL!

So another situation with two outcomes: The sun does come up tomorrow or the sun doesn't come up tomorrow. So is there a 50% chance the sun will come up tomorrow?
1/18/2010 6:15 PM
arssanguinus
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I suppose since its technically possible for a coin to stand on its side, that means its a 33% chance of each outcome as well?
1/18/2010 6:16 PM
colonels19
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Guys, this is hilarious...our state lottery is having a raffle drawing this month....6 tickets will win $1 million out of a total 600,000 tickets....what are the odds of winning $1 million?

What are the odds of drawing a "47" out of 50 numbers, numbered 1 to 50, even if you're keen to selecting "47s"...what are the odds gentlemen?

The odds of making a free throw are 50-50.
1/18/2010 6:19 PM
mrpolo09
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Quote: Originally posted by colonels19 on 1/18/2010
Quote: Originally Posted By mrpolo09 on 1/18/2010 and the fact that you are arguing that people can perfect a dice throw is completely moronic. YES, it can be done. NO, it cannot be done in a casino. You would be kicked out in 2 min...


Buddy, you're an idiot. but if you can find someone, anyone than can increase their chance at throwing a seven from 16% to even 25%, you could easily be a millionaire.

Craps in a casino is about as controlled of an environment as you can get. To argue that its not, just because your idiot neighbor bought some trick dice is utterly moronic. I saw it on the History Channel, not from my next door neighbor...I think you're rather silly for taking this 154 roll streak at face value, thinking this is only her second time playing craps....man you're easy.  If things seem too good to be true, they probably are.


that episode about the Dominator and Scoblete has been highly scrutinized. its 90% fiction.

never figured you for it, but you must be one of those "we never landed on the moon" and "the CIA bombed the WTC"

now, i'm not saying that you cannot improve your chances at dice throwing. but if it is even possible. its fraction of percentages. it takes the small edge the house has and give a small edge to the player.

instead of throwing and eight 13.8% of the time. you could maybe increase it to 14.5% or 15%.

I dont know why i keep arguing. its apparent you are clueless in this discussion. so i guess that makes me the idiot.
1/18/2010 6:20 PM
arssanguinus
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Um. . .no COlonels?

Again, a coin could stand on its edge, or land heads or tails. Are you saying the probability of it landing on its edge is 33%?
1/18/2010 6:20 PM
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