Moke away, mikey. You and I both know that the MLB season is far too long for someone to stay lucky for an entire season.

The O's have won the close games and beaten the teams they've needed to beat. You'll have to show me the rule that says if your wins are close and your losses aren't, that you're lucky. The Yanks and O's have the same record - and yet somehow the Yanks have earned it and the O's have lucked out?

Only 3 teams have more wins than the Orioles right now - so I guess there are 26 very unlucky teams in MLB.

Not to mention the D'Backs won 90 games a few years back and were outscored on the season. I don't recall any cries of "lucky!!" back then.

I don't recall any "D-BACK ARE THE BESTUS EVER!!!" threads either.

So now you're jumping from "FIRST PLACE!" (factual) to "O'S ARE THE BEST EVER!!" 

Ya, I can totally see how you made that ju...oh wait, no I can't. Maybe they O's hang on, maybe they don't, but it's gonna feel so damn good if the O's are playing in October and the Yankees aren't. I won't be shy about letting you know.

Orioles won't be playing anything in October except for golf.

Posted by Jtpsops on 9/4/2012 10:56:00 PM (view original):
Not to mention the D'Backs won 90 games a few years back and were outscored on the season. I don't recall any cries of "lucky!!" back then.

Yeah, but you have one of the most selective memorys in history.  That being said, I'm sure no one was talking much about it here since no one cares about the D-Backs - but it was certainly noticed and discussed.  Teams that dramatically overperform expectations in 1 run games typically fall off (and of course the reverse is also true),  I seem to remember the D-Backs making some additions and being a trendy pick to win 95+ the next year, but they actually went backwards.

And all of that being said, none of that really matters for this year, they are where they are, and even if they've been "lucky" to get to this point, all that matters going forward is how they finish off the season. 

Posted by Jtpsops on 9/4/2012 10:56:00 PM (view original):
Not to mention the D'Backs won 90 games a few years back and were outscored on the season. I don't recall any cries of "lucky!!" back then.

I was.  Nobody listened.

If the Yankees are doing a Mets impression, they're doing it wrong.  Too early.

I will agree that the Orioles have been lucky to have the record they have.  Relevance?  If the Yankees lose more than 2 games in the 4-gamer this weekend, which comes with the O's hot and the Yankees cold, they're going to be  in trouble.  Better hope Tex really brings the team up when he comes back, because you don't want to have a big hole to dig out of in that kind of pressure cooker.

I saw a stat last night that the O's are like -62 in games started by Arietta, Hunter and Eveland, 3 guys who were demoted/dfa'd and only Hunter has started since.

Bottom line is the O's have built leads and kept them, or kept games close and struck late. Is there luck in there? I'm sure there is. But no team, especially with the length of an MLB season, lucks into the playoffs. If the Orioles get there, they'll have earned it.

Though we all know the Yanks and Sux fans will come up with every excuse in the book to save face. I guarantee if the O's get in and the Rays don't, you won't hear their fans whining about how lucky Baltimore got.

Every study ever done shows that record in 1-run games boils down to luck.  As much as we want it to be related to bullpen quality, statistically it just isn't.  Probably has something to do with the fact that bullpens are used similarly with 1 run leads, 1 run deficits, or 3 run leads, so the team with the good bullpen is just as likely to hold the 3-run lead and keep it from becoming a 1-run game as they are to hold the 1-run lead and win a 1-run game.  Similarly, they're equally likely to hold the 1-run deficit.  The team with the bad bullpen is equally likely to blow the 1-run deficit into a bigger deficit, blow the 1-run lead into a 1-run deficit, and whittle the 3-run lead into a 1-run lead.  Anyway, that's just conjecture.  The statistical fact is that historically having a great bullpen DOES NOT make you more likely to win 1-run games.  I'm sure you will give me some logical reason why this is wrong.  I don't care.  Empiricism always wins.  It's a fact.  Deal with it.

In fact, nothing correlates to record in 1-run games.  It's luck.  Still doesn't change the fact that more recently not that many of the Orioles wins have been of the 1-run variety, and they did just lose the streak of winning 1-run games.  Doesn't seem to have damaged the team psyche.  The fact is that both the Orioles and the Rays are playing much better than the Yankees RIGHT NOW, and with less than a month left in the season and the standings even with the Rays not far behind, right now will very quickly become all that matters.  The Yankees still have the best roster of the 3 teams, but if they don't start playing up to that talent level in a hurry it just isn't going to matter.  Everybody seems to love playing in Baltimore right now, the one ML player we traded away verbally expressed being sad to leave and feeling like "something special" was going on in Baltimore.  The team dynamic is great at the moment.  So good, in fact, I would even consider picking up the Reynolds option for next year in spite of the fact that statistically he's nothing in the vicinity of worth it.  Or even half of it.  But right now he's carrying the team, and if he hits another 6 or 8 homers this month and the O's make the playoffs it would be awfully hard to say "thanks for pulling us out of that 15-year funk, bye bye now!"

I also think the argument that "luck evens out over 162 games" is bullshit.  It's a 162-game season, but it's looking like the difference between being in or out of the playoffs is likely to be 1 or 2 games, if not going down to tiebreakers and 163rd games.  If you don't think luck can contribute well over 1 to 2 games over the course of a season you're crazy.  If the O's were at the expectation value of .500 in 1-run games they really wouldn't be meaningfully in playoff contention.  Based on how they've been playing recently and their extreme September success since Showalter has been here, they'd be a very good bet to get over .500 for the first time since 1997.  Preseason that was what most of the more realistic fans were hoping for - continued improvement, good signs from the younger guys, and a .500 season.  I think most O's fans would still be happy if the more probabilistic outcomes had occurred.  Fortunately for us, the team has done better than that and is now a real threat to make the playoffs.  I will cite again the aforementioned September success during Showalter's tenure and the fact that since the All-Star break the O's have been as good as anybody, probably better than anyone other than *maybe* Tampa Bay.  We should anticipate having our luck regress to average, so we'll have to outplay the Yankees and/or Rays to make the playoffs.  I think they have a shot to do it.  That doesn't mean they won't have gotten lucky if they make the playoffs.  It also is a copout for Yankee fans to spend much time pointing to it.  As of right now they still have as good a chance as anyone to win the division, and as I said earlier I think they have the most talent to do it with.  The division is still as much theirs to lose as anyone's.  They just need to get it done down the stretch to get in, and if they don't do it it's still their own fault.  Certainly they have the payroll to cover for a little luck deficit, and so far they have.  Now they just have to earn it, same as Baltimore.

If the Yanks keep playing like they have been of late, all the O's/Rays have to do is play .500 ball the rest of the way (regardless of score) to finish in front of them.