Ask the 'Someone who isn't MikeT' thread. Topic

Relatively certain there are weights to different ratings. I really wonder how some of them play a role in overall because some players seem unplayable for key ratings (vL, vR, etc) but have higher overall which eventually result in becoming Type A free agents no one wants to sign.
12/3/2022 9:32 PM
Yeah, it definitely is a weighted average. But I doubt if anyone knows the actual weighting. If I had my guess, I would think that health, patience, temper, and make-up would be universal, then after that it gets weighted heavily toward pitcher vs. position player importance ratings. For example, I have had pitchers with high OVR, but mediocre pitcher ratings. Then I see they have a 100 health rating, high patience, etc. Once you get a feel for what ratings are important, you can start with the OVR, but you can find some hidden gems if you look under the hood. A 58 OVR DH can still be a masher. Likewise. a 62 OVR pitcher might just be because his durability + stamina is very low, but if his other pitcher ratings are very good, he could be an effective closer.
12/3/2022 10:26 PM (edited)
Posted by dedelman on 12/3/2022 6:53:00 PM (view original):
Player A: 250 innings, ERA in OAK (AL) of about mid-to-high twos.
Player B: 160 innings, ERA in OAK (AL) of about low-to-mid twos.

So you have to decide whether you want the extra 80-90 innings of slightly lower quality work. I have staffs where I'd rate one higher, and staffs where I'd rate the other higher... also, very disparate health and/or signability would affect my decision as well.
I'd take Player A in most situations, but you're right -- some of my staffs would benefit more from Player B.
12/3/2022 10:56 PM
Mostly agree with BJ above. I do think health and durability have a major weight. I see many 3b types with mid-90+ durability and health, plus defensive rec ratings, but slightly below average hitting ratings (i.e. high 60s/low 70s) and he is still rated an 88 overall. Then I see players with mid 70s durability and health, but better hitting and fielding ratings, but their overall rating is like mid to high 70s because they can't play every day without getting fatigued.
12/3/2022 11:01 PM
I'm not going to say the Overall rating is unimportant. In particular, I think some pitchers - starters in particular - can have their overall performance "floated" by higher DUR/STA. Anecdotal evidence, I've had a few good SPs who get knocked around for an inning but then if they don't get pulled they "settle in" after that and give you six more with no runs. Good with the bad.
However, on balance, Overall IMO takes everything into account with perhaps less "weighting" that has been proposed. DUR/STA - especially for position players - factors in heavily, as do Health, Patience, and Makeup. The Intangibles.
A SS who can hit well will always have a super high Overall simply because he has more of more high ratings.
A C will always have a low Overall unless he has 80+ DUR.

When I sort my draft prospects, I sort by what I think are critical performance ratings - the Hit ratings only, the Pitching ratings only. After I'm done moving all those players to the top, I end up with this bulge of players with high Overalls who I've kept moving down, down, below my preferred prospects. I look at those players and they inevitably are the ones with high DUR - almost always 90+.

Those are the players with high Overalls who IMO won't hit or pitch at the Major League level. They will be higher round draftees who you'll see in the Rule 5 draft one day.

12/4/2022 8:45 AM
Overall matters most in these ways to me - a good player with a low overall is cheaper and may resign regardless while a borderline player with a high overall will be more expensive and less likely to be worth it through all arb years and/or less likely to harvest comp picks if rating is much higher than value
12/4/2022 9:38 PM
Opposite Hand Platoon Vs Same Hand Platoon-

So here is something I have been curious about, say you have a RH Hitter that has a 80 vRhp compared to a LH Hitter with a say 70 vRhp, who would be best to play in a platoon situation. I guess it could also be asked is how many rating pts would your reckon an opposite handedness advantage is worth?
1/3/2023 6:28 PM
80 vs 70 is close, probably within 1 statistical margin of error over one or two series'. So for me, then I look at contact, batting eye, and power. Put your guy in the lineup who has those best ratings. A lot of guys downplay contact, but I think that rating is huge, especially if your hitter has power or 99+ speed. Of course, defense also factors into those decisions about who to start.
1/3/2023 8:43 PM (edited)
Also, do you look at the players statistical RH/LH splits when you organize your line-up? That helps me a lot. OBP splits is important at 1 and 2. The 3 hole guy is always the most important hitter in your line-up. You want your best overall hitter there. Then 4-5-6 are all about OPS, with an emphasis on Slugging. 7-8-9, batting eye would help to get those guys on base to get back around to the top of the line-up.
1/3/2023 8:49 PM
Interesting. I honestly don't have a current platoon issue like this, just kind of posed the question as more of a theory crafting discussion. But you would say that in general an opposite hand hitter can make up, up to about 10 points in splits when compared to a same handed hitter?
1/3/2023 11:26 PM
Posted by McGirkTheJer on 1/3/2023 6:28:00 PM (view original):
Opposite Hand Platoon Vs Same Hand Platoon-

So here is something I have been curious about, say you have a RH Hitter that has a 80 vRhp compared to a LH Hitter with a say 70 vRhp, who would be best to play in a platoon situation. I guess it could also be asked is how many rating pts would your reckon an opposite handedness advantage is worth?
So, here is something that is a little unwritten that most people miss / don't think about.

It is very very unlikely that you will be able to have a player play 162 being at 100% the entire time. I look at your situation and this is an excellent problem to have. Any time I can platoon a player (catchers I try to do every season) I'm all over it. This way when you go down the stretch your guys are more likely to be at or near 100% where as other teams may have played their best players into the ground and may be at 90% or lower. It may not seem like a big deal at first but compare your lineup with your opponents. Now multiply the ratings on your opponents players by 0.9. All of the sudden your lineup should look a lot better.

I can't count the times I've been out of a playoff spot at the all star break to come back and win the division based entirely off of this. Food for thought anyways.
1/4/2023 9:16 AM
Another thing I would mention is odds are 1/3 or so of your at bats will come against relievers, who's handiness you can't predict very well. To Hockey's point above, I tend to platoon more based off which players have lower durability vs. splits.
1/4/2023 1:57 PM
I know many will disagree with this, but I'd play both for 200 Abs, then whomever is having the better season, go with him the rest of the way. I do this with all of my non-superstar players. When a superstar has a down season, it is usually still better than a non-superstar. However, when a non-superstar has a down year, it can put a damper on team Rc. I've seen it too many times -- a player on one side of the platoon is having a geat year and the player on the other side is having an average or down year. I just remove one player from the platoon and have him on the bench, but used as player rest. This way he continues to get some at bats and you can see if he's getting out of his funk.

I'd mostly agree that a RHB with 80 split is close to a wash with a LHB with a split of 70. I'd give a very slight edge to the RHB with higher splits, but it's negligible.
1/4/2023 5:39 PM
Posted by McGirkTheJer on 1/3/2023 11:26:00 PM (view original):
Interesting. I honestly don't have a current platoon issue like this, just kind of posed the question as more of a theory crafting discussion. But you would say that in general an opposite hand hitter can make up, up to about 10 points in splits when compared to a same handed hitter?
I platoon a TON, and rate the platoon advantage as being worth about 12 points. That number is "calculated" by:
1) The knowledge that the average platoon split for a pitcher is about 10 points-- that is, the average RHP will have his VsL about 10 points lower than his VsR,
2) How much I value pitcher splits based off regressions I did over a decade ago, and
3) How much I value hitter splits.
Your mileage might vary on numbers (2) and (3), but I actually bothered to calculate the number in statement (1) about 10 years ago.
1/4/2023 6:11 PM
I clearly don't understand baseball. Someone is going to have to explain this one to me.

Team A has the 17th overall pick in the draft. There is 1 type D player ahead of him in the draft.

He signs 2 of my type A free agents.

I don't get his 17th pick. I get 2 sandwhich picks and his second and third round.

Does the type D bump the protected picks back a spot? I always thought that 16 was a hard and fast rule.
1/19/2023 9:14 AM
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