I saw some numbers posted by benis(??) that showed users were up even AFTER the freebies were gone.

This is very misleading, even if it's true. Something like 30-40% of the human coaches left before the rollout of 3.0, so even if there has been a rebound since that time numbers are clearly still down from 12-15 months ago before the user base starting reacting to the concept and the beta.

Posted by pkoopman on 12/20/2016 3:01:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 12/20/2016 3:00:00 PM (view original):
Have you ever taken a large rock and just slammed it against your head for hours and hours? If so, you'd know that's what arguing with metsmaniac is like.

Stop it.

I know. Anyone here will tell you I have a problem avoiding rabbit holes.

I bet he hasn't read any entire post from you before he started typing R-N-G.

Posted by dahsdebater on 12/20/2016 3:02:00 PM (view original):

I saw some numbers posted by benis(??) that showed users were up even AFTER the freebies were gone.

This is very misleading, even if it's true. Something like 30-40% of the human coaches left before the rollout of 3.0, so even if there has been a rebound since that time numbers are clearly still down from 12-15 months ago before the user base starting reacting to the concept and the beta.

I guess you have some concrete numbers to back this?

there was a while back a thread listing world populations - this data is knowable. But I dont know how to find that thread

actually here is a thread with data thru July

https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=495032

and a partial more recent thread

https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=497740

I have not attempted to analyze this data

I thought benis was comparing pre/post 3.0 in his post. Not sure it matters. The only real way to know if the changes worked won't come until a year from now. Assuming all the freebies stayed in D3, it will be awhile before they're moving to D1. But someone else posted numbers from their world and D1/D2 increased.

To me, D3 will always be fluid. People will come in, try it and quit. Or move up. Those that settle in D3 will be few and far between.

Yeah, the 2nd one is one I also recalled. Of course, that doesn't compare to world pops before 3.0.

quickly comparing the two threads, one can see some basis for analysis

the thread showing years of data thru July showed Naismith DI rather stable at 120-130 players

the more recent thread shows Naismith DI at 97. Thats a drop. Someone - not me - back to work - hush dont tell clients - could look at other worlds and compare the pre July levels to now.

I pretty lazy but Naismith D1-D3 in S86/87 was 371.5
Naismith D1-E3 in S92 was 367.

Not much to see there. But, if there was a mass exodus, other joined.

If one dives one step deeper, DI went down and DIII went up. That is what one would expect as some old customers didnt go for the new product. We knew that subjectively.

Could be that dahsdeb meant DI in his comment above - that would be in the vicinity of accurate for Naismith

The interesting question will be whether the new customers sustain and become long term customers - thats the WIS business challenge with 3.0, right?

Yeah, that's why I said a year from now. New user signs up for 6 seasons. Does he stick? Does he run 2-3 teams(as I suspect the disgruntled vets did)? Does he move up the ladder to D2/D1? It's about 8 seasons per year, right?

Last summer the average D1 world population was a little over 130 coaches, after the update it dipped all the way down into the 80s, and now has rebounded to ~100. D2 average world population was ~100 pre-update, dipped I believe just below 70, and has now rebounded to the low 80s. D3 populations are virtually meaningless during freeHD promotions.

It takes time to move to D1. D1 population right now is equally meaningless. And, for any n00b learning the game, he's probably staying in D3 because he doesn't even know he can move up. Average world population, post freebies, is about the same as it was in S86-87.

The bottom line is that HD is down almost 500 coaches in D1 and D2 from where it was 16 months ago.