Quote: Originally Posted By mark3313 on 1/01/2010Anyway, I think this post has run it's course.

There isn't enough data to disprove or prove administration's claim as, I don't think, any one league has finished a complete season with the update.

Quote: Originally posted by antonsirius on 1/01/2010I just threw together a few scenarios to try and explain that 32 point OPS drop using the theory that only "upper echelon" hitters were affected (which directly contradicts the data trsnoke posted earlier from your own world, mark). These are purely hypothetical, and I have no idea how realistic the numbers are. I did this only to illustrate what kind of drop-offs you'd have to be looking for:
Scenario 1:

Hitters are divided into five groups. The top group (the "upper echelon") accounts for 25% of the world's plate appearances, scaling down to 15% for the bottom group (since better hitters should get more PAs). The OPS average for each group ranges from 850 down to 660, to produce a world average of 780.

In this scenario, that top group would have to see their OPS collectively drop to 740 (a 110 point drop) to produce a new world average of about 752. 740 falls between the averages of the third (780) and fourth (720) groups.

Scenario 2:

Same five groups, same PA weights. OPS averages now range from 900 at the top down to 660, skewed more heavily towards the top (next-best group averages 800). OPS of the top group would have to drop to 785 (a 115 point drop) to drag the world average down to 752.

Scenario 3:

Ten groups this time. PA weights range from 12% at the top down to 8% at the bottom. OPS averages range from 930 at the top down to 625 at the bottom. The top group would now have to see their collective OPS drop to 695 (a 235 point drop, and just below the eighth group's average of 700) to drag the whole world down to 752.



Generally speaking, mark, the more narrowly you define "upper echelon", the more massive their drop is going to have to be to account for the entirety of that 32 point OPS loss. Are you really seeing elite hitters now hitting like defensive specialist shortstops? Because that's about what you'd have to be seeing for your theory to explain what happened.

Quote: Originally Posted By tecwrg on 1/01/2010

I'll say again what I said yesterday, becaue it's been lost in the noise.

My casual observations about the impact of power has always been that extreme power ratings have traditionally had far too much of an impact on productivity than it should have. It was as if the closer to 100 the power rating got, the more exponential the productivity curve was. That was just wrong.

Now, they've made a change which cuts down on the top end. It's silly to think that it only affects the top "x" power-point guys. It's much more reasonable to think that the power algorithm was adjusted such that the high end was less exponential. Everybody is affected, but it's the "upper echelon" guys who are impacted the most because the far end of the exponential-like curve has flattened to something more reasonable.

Mark's been focusing on one (of many) statements, the one that is misleadingly written to indicate that it's ONLY the upper echelon that's affected. He's also been cherry picking certain guys in an attempt to back up his argument. ("Look at this 90 power guy that had a bad year!"). In the meantime, others have provided examples of (a) players who have had extreme productivity swings from year to year prior to this change, and (b) players who do not seem to be drastically affected by the change. As well as differening responses from ADMIN with respect to the change itself (i.e. only the "upper echelon" guys vs. everybody).

The bottom line: the power rating now works more in-line with the way the other ratings work. Extreme power no longer over-compensates for poor or mediocre ratings elsewhere. Offense is down. Pitching and fielding now have more importance. The game is now more about having a well rounded team in all three aspects (hitting, pitching and fielding) in order to achieve maximum success.

Quote: Originally Posted By tecwrg on 1/01/2010
All those Q & A's, including the one that Mark was focusing on, were from the 11/9/2009 dev chat.

Question 4 directly addresses Mark's claim that after the update, a guy with 90 power was now worth less than a guy with 80 power, and that the ratings should be adjusted to reflect that.

The last two questions address where all the home runs went. ADMIN says they're not becoming outs.



I think we are focused on whether or not the update cuts HRs for all players of just elite HR hitters, 4-6 do not address that. And again, I don't believe that none of the lost HRs are becoming outs.

Again, I think the evidence supports that it is effecting all players, but just don't jump on someone about admin's confusing message. Looking at all those statements the one in question is a more definitive statement than any of the others, so thats on admin.