Quote: Originally Posted By dalter on 4/15/2010
The issue here is that you're quite bad at recognizing which outcomes are truly, inherently flawed, and which are not.

Quote: Originally Posted By zhawks on 4/16/2010
When everyone disagrees with you, at some point wouldn't you start to think "Maybe it's me?"

Quote: Originally Posted By dahsdebater on 4/16/2010
To be fair, a few people agreed with him(/her?).

I always tend to assume everybody on this site is a guy, but I'm sure there are some women so I don't want to jump to conclusions too quickly...

Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 4/16/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By zhawks on 4/16/2010

When everyone disagrees with you, at some point wouldn't you start to think "Maybe it's me?"

If everyone in the world disagreed with me, but I still had good reason to believe that I was/am right/justified, I wouldn't give in and admit that I was/am wrong.

Just because you're in the (vast) minority doesn't mean that you're incorrect or that you don't have good logic, theories, etc.

Quote: Originally Posted By dalter on 4/16/2010

For you, colonels ... anything.

The story of the first game is told in the first half. The home team was extremely hot (66%) and the away team was extremely cold (29%). Nearing the outskirts of expectation here, is it not? That resulted in a lopsided 39-17 halftime score. If these teams played 100 times you wouldn't expect a halftime score that lopsided very often, but this in itself is hardly crazy, unprecedented or something that should never happen. Unprecedented and should never happen, certainly not...my initial comments I made in this thread are/were a bit off because I hadn't looked at the game(s) too closely...crazy and maybe/probably got screwed...I think the argument's there, especially when game 2 rolls around.

In the second half that margin continued to widen, in large part because the away team's reserves played a lot more than normal, and on this team there is a monumental difference between the starters and backups (the starters were recruited by a human, the backups by a sim).

In the second game, the sim team was at home Clark's HCA was worse than pitino's team's HCA...Clark was a C...Lane was a B...I would expect Pitino's team to play better at home than Clark's would/should at home...something you're not considering when you're just looking at the fact that Clark is at home., so of course we know already that's a significant factor in the equation. Instead of one team being very hot and the other being very cold, there was a more normal result, with both teams shooting 41-44%. The sim team was able to play their starters for normal minutes, so that makes a real difference, too. I'm going to have to look closer at the ratings, but you do realize that Lane has an OTR that's 70 higher than Clark? Why, when the game "normalizes" should Clark now get the edge, especially when they didn't make any adjustments, just because they're playing at home? Again they have an HCA of C...not impressive at all.

So I'd say that the biggest factor was simply a very hot first half for Lane paired with a very cold first half for Clark in the initial game. That led to Clark's really crappy reserves playing the majority of the 2nd half, widening the gap even further. Then factor in the home/road advantage.

Mistakes that the Lane coach made:

-Not running uptempo. As mentioned, there was a huge disparity between the sim team's starters and reserves. The sim team also ran a press. So the Lane coach missed a great opportunity to make sure that the sim's reserves would be on the court as much as possible.

-Running a +1 defense. Clark-Atl takes a decent amount of 3p's (as most sims do), but they are simply an awful 3pt shooting team at 29% for the season (vs. a 245 sos). Their starting guards and sf have pe ratings of 54, 47 and 36. You practically want to beg that team to shoot more threes. I would've backed off a little and dared them to shoot more 3p's, probably a -1 or -2.

If he does these two things, he wins the second game, no question in my mind. And then this thread doesn't exist, and the world is a better place. And again I would point out to you, why would you change ANYTHING when you won a game by 39 points, against a sim who you know isn't going to adjust strategy?