Quote: Originally Posted By schuyler101 on 7/22/2009
Agreed. His doesn't take into account travel for the visitor (or lack of it for the home team), umpire bias, testosterone, home team's familiarity with home park, etc...

And that is what the 10% can account for, all these factors. And then we can get results that play a little closer to real life.

• identifying, quantifying, proving and programming such intangibles as "travel for the visitor (or lack of it for the home team), umpire bias, testosterone, home team's familiarity with home park, etc." and
• throwing an arbitrary, divorced-from-all-logic, across the board boost into the game.

Quote: Originally Posted By antonsirius on 7/22/2009Also, please quote the post where I push for "a 10% greater likelihood of winning programmed into the SIM." Thanks bunches

Quote: Originally Posted By schuyler101 on 7/22/2009

Quote: Originally posted by antonsirius on 7/22/2009

Quote: Originally posted by iain on 7/22/200

Quote: Originally Posted By antonsirius on 7/22/2009You're the one who seems to have the issue with it, not me. I'm fine with teams earning a home field advantage in the playoffs.[/QUOTE
My definition of HFA: more games in your home park, with whatever inherent advantage your team construction gives you.

Your definition of HFA: more games in your home park, with whatever inherent advantage your team construction gives you, as well as an artificial 10% greater likelihood of winning programmed into the SIM.

If you can't see the difference (hint: it's in italics), and why that's ridiculous, well... I think we're done here.

Your definition, unfortunately, doesn't match reality's.

Agreed. His doesn't take into account travel for the visitor (or lack of it for the home team), umpire bias, testosterone, home team's familiarity with home park, etc...

And that is what the 10% can account for, all these factors. And then we can get results that play a little closer to real life.

Quote: Originally Posted By iain on 7/22/2009
What world were you the #1 seed that got knocked out by a WC qualifier, shuyler??

Quote: Originally Posted By schuyler101 on 7/22/2009




Conclusion - A really good sample size simply isn't available, nor are adequate controls of extraneous variables.[FTFY]


You definitely cherry picked the convenient example. [no shoot, sherlock! So did you.]

There really is something that happens in RL MLB that isn't accounted for in the HBD sim.

I would like us to account for it. [As long as you ignore those intangible variables that might actually exist, and continue to trumpet the call for an arbitrary, divorced-from-any-logic, indiscriminate, across the board 10% boost that's exactly the opposite of what you're doing. You're burying any real HFA that there might be.]

Quote: Originally Posted By schuyler101 on 7/22/2009I'm not as familiar with GD so I can't really comment on how f'ed up HFA is in that. It seems to work pretty well in HD though.

Quote: Originally Posted By schuyler101 on 7/22/2009
I'm not as familiar with GD so I can't really comment on how f'ed up HFA is in that. It seems to work pretty well in HD though.

I don't see[Exactly. And as long as you don't, and don't even try to understand the difference, your argument will go exactly where your understanding goes, nowhere.] why you have to define each variable (it would be impossible anyway) that results in HFA in RL and not just apply a modifier that takes all into account. We don't define each variable that goes into a hitter's contact rating (bat speed, hitting mechanics, swing arc length, uppercut/level swing, hitting philosophy), we just apply a rating.

Quote: Originally Posted By schuyler101 on 7/22/2009

Quote: Originally posted by MikeT23 on 7/21/2009

Quote: Originally Posted By schuyler101 on 7/21/2009
I don't think owner decision making is what causes there to be a negligible home/road winning % split in HBD. I'd be surprised if there were many owners who have custom tailored their team to the point where, year in year out, they win 10% more at home. I welcome examples of owners who have managed to average 10% more wins at home over the course of 3 or 4 seasons (a reasonable time period). It takes a number of seasons to custom tailor your team like that but since we have so many vets around here and a number of worlds going on 10+ seasons I would think if there were an example of this someone could provide it



In seasons 5-8 of Joey Belle, I won 25 more games at home than on the road. 397 wins, 211 at home, more at home every season in Dover. Not quite 10% but I think it proves it can be done.

It can be done but can it be done consistently?

Or are you just cherry picking your best example?

Let's look at other worlds you are currently in and have been in for more than 5 seasons. Of all people I would think you would know better than most how to custom tailor your team to your park. So I wondered if you could consistently do this, given the time.

Here is what I found.

I took the last 4 seasons of Cooperstown (Charleston Charge), the last 2 of Happy Jack (Las Vegas Pit Boss) and the last 5 from Moonlight Graham (Rochester Rage). All teams you had for at least 6 seasons prior and had plenty of time to custom tailor them to your parks.

I only used completed seasons and looked at all of those completed after having spent 6 seasons with the franchise. (NOTE - MikeT, if you took over any of these teams mid season let me know and I can change the parameters, if 6 season is not enough time to tailor a team to your park, or too much, I welcome input)

I set up the parameters of what I wanted to look at before I looked at the records.

Cooperstown (Charleston Charge)
Seasons 7 - 10
178 home wins
179 road wins
.6% more wins on the road

Happy Jack (Las Vegas Pit Bulls)
Seasons 10 - 11
90 home wins
93 road wins
3.3% more wins on the road

Moonlight Graham (Rochester Rage)
Seasons 7 - 11
218 home wins
227 road wins
4.1% more wins on the road


Totals
486 home wins
499 road wins

including your Joey Belle stats it comes to
697 home wins
687 road wins
1.4% more wins at home

Conclusion - A really good sample size proves you come FAR short of the 4 to 10% that is the average in RL MLB for the last 20 years.

You definitely cherry picked the convenient example. As a very experienced owner you should be able to tailor your teams to their home parks. You clearly have not been able to do it with any team except for possibly your Joey Belle team.

Either the affect of tailoring your team to it's home park has been drastically overstated, or you're just inept at doing it. I don't think you're inept at all, you are a solid owner and a consistent winner, and I don't think you're winning in spite of not being able to take advantage of this facet of HBD. I simply think the advantage gained by tailoring your team to it's home park is at the most 1 or 2% more wins at home.

It seems this isn't a case of HBD owners simply making diff't decisions regarding personnel and that causing us to get diff't results from RL MLB. There really is something that happens in RL MLB that isn't accounted for in the HBD sim.

I would like us to account for it.





Of course I used the example of where I did it. Charleston/Vegas are pitcher's parks, Rochester is neutral and Dover(JB) is a hitter's park. Maybe I can only do it consistently in a hitter's park.

I build teams a certain way. It's less about "tailoring" it to my ballpark and more about fielding a team that can win games anywhere.

I, for one, would not welcome the opportunity to lose more road games.

Quote: Originally Posted By tecwrg on 7/22/2009

I've noticed that road wins count just as much as home wins do in the standings.

Just thought I'd point that out.

Quote: Originally Posted By swamphawk22 on 7/22/2009

Quote: Originally Posted By tecwrg on 7/22/2009

I've noticed that road wins count just as much as home wins do in the standings.

Just thought I'd point that out.

Soring a run with a walk, stolen base, bunt and a Sac Fly to deep counts as much as a Home run. Does that mean we dont need power ratings?