Quote: Originally Posted By jvford on 1/01/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By dedelman on 1/01/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By pstrnutbag44 on 1/01/2010
Based on the page I linked in the Data Across Worlds thread, WiS' own data, there are less HR/G and H/G overall in the last 6-8 weeks. Moreso than any other time in the history kept on that very page. Significantly more, especially considering the sheer amount of data they have used. Until recently, both had been very stable numbers. I'm not misreading the data. It's there for everyone to see, if they chose to.

HR are down 0.6 per game, and hits are down 0.06 per game. The HR are 90% becoming singles, and 10% outs.

Not sure where pstrnutbag is seeing the drop in H/G, it's just a normal fluctuation. 19.154 now, 19.215 on 11/9, and 19.150 on 9/28.

I went back much further, my fault for the 6-8 weeks. Again, I'm not "fighting" either side, just discussing what I see in the numbers provided. Including the staggering gradual decline in HR's overall. I saw a gradual decline in offesne over the last few months as well. The H/G have been much higher than 19.20 prior to August-September of this year. Was it a large shift in owner strategy? Unannounced "update"? I am not arguing against or for anything, just provoking discussion. There seems to be a questionable implementation of the update. Looking at some of the data, it's understandable that there is room for debate. I certainly don't think 80 means more than 90 or whatever the current rhetoric being tossed around is.

Quote: Originally posted by mark3313 on 1/01/2010If the update is impacting ALL players, then I have no issue with it. I'm saying, and said, that's not what customer service told me the other day. They said, without any editing,

"When we developed the original power formula in HBD, Bonds was hitting 73 HR / season. All our data and formulas were based on a time period that is no longer valid in the MLB, so we brought the upper end down. The change we put in place only impacts the upper echelon of HR hitters and only impacts HR. We, and many users, did not like seeing players blast 70,80,90 HR in a season."

If they are wrong, I'm happy. If they are correct, then I think it was the wrong way to correct the problem.

I have seen examples of players' HRs definitely just becoming outs. Maybe that's an exception to the overall rule, who knows. Maybe slow runners are losing HRs to outs while faster runners are seeing them become more 2bls and 3bls. I posted on here to see if others had seen similar examples.

** The 90 being better than 80 was an illustration to say if you only change one group, and not all the others, their ratings become misleading and inaccurate compared to all other hitters. **

I received the exact same answer verbatim.

And yes, I can post several examples of players experiencing huge drops in OPS, because HRs are now becoming outs (not singles, 2Bs, and 3Bs). But I'll be accused of cherry-picking. Earl Weaver is turning over in his grave right now.

I noticed something interesting today. For my pinch hitting I generally just use the recs for pinch hitting. Today was roster expansion day so I called up some players and hit recs. Bill Fossum was ahead of Pasqual Hernandez against both righties and ies in late/close need power. I would be interested in hearing why Fossum is ahead of Hernandez against righties? I don't think this happens pre power nerf.

Bill Fossum

Pasqual Hernandez

Hernandez is higher rated in CON, POW, VS Righties, and Eye yet the Recs suggest Fossum over Hernandez late/close need power.

Quote: Originally Posted By plague on 1/02/2010I noticed something interesting today. For my pinch hitting I generally just use the recs for pinch hitting. Today was roster expansion day so I called up some players and hit recs. Bill Fossum was ahead of Pasqual Hernandez against both righties and ies in late/close need power. I would be interested in hearing why Fossum is ahead of Hernandez against righties? I don't think this happens pre power nerf.

Bill Fossum

Pasqual Hernandez

Hernandez is higher rated in CON, POW, VS Righties, and Eye yet the Recs suggest Fossum over Hernandez late/close need power

That seems like a ticket worth sending....as opposed to these countless "whaaah, my player's having a bad year" complaints.

Yeah if I am manually setting those pinch hitting replacements, there's no way Fossum is ahead of Hernandez

My only guess is because Fossum has higher durability (?), which is still pretty dumb. Definitely ticket worthy.

Quote: Originally Posted By robproc on 1/02/2010

...

And yes, I can post several examples of players experiencing huge drops in OPS, because HRs are now becoming outs (not singles, 2Bs, and 3Bs). But I'll be accused of cherry-picking. Earl Weaver is turning over in his grave right now.

You could find that before the update, too. I've had players with big changes in OPS season to season before the update: Lloyd,Milton,Groom . If you look at a whole league or follow that link provided earlier to all active worlds, you see AVG and OBP have not changed overall while SLG has dropped. Page also shows that hits, doubles and triples per game hasn't changed but HR per game has dropped. You'll always have players whose stats fluctuate season to season but overall if hits, doubles and triples stay level and HR drops, it looks like the HR are turning into singles.

You can also look at that table I posted on pg 6 - it shows changes for one league with players grouped by power rating. I included AVG in the table so you can see whether or not AVG changed as power fell in each group. Overall league AVG stayed the same for the league and AVG within each group does not support the theory that the update is turning HR into outs.

Happy New Year, guys. It's nice to see you're having so much fun arguing over fractions of seasons and handfuls of players. Don't take yourselves too seriously, though, on those shreds of info. Have fun, though ... why not?

This post could not be converted. To view the original post's thread, click here.

I've seen that before -- pinch-hitting auto rankings are weighed heavily towards current performance rather than ratings.

Quote: Originally posted by antonsirius on 1/02/2010I've seen that before -- pinch-hitting auto rankings are weighed heavily towards current performance rather than ratings.

That is not my observation. The recs are consistent through the season regardless of current statistics. If you do the recs at the start of the season and continue to update recs after each game the recs won't change or update based on statistics.. It's obvious to me that the recs are ratings based not performance based.

Here ... Home Runs

A lot of you won't be able to understand it, but it is useful for everybody else.

Admin is not really correct with his assertion that the missing home runs are becoming double and triples. They are becoming singles, as this post shows

Home runs are down 34% throughout WIS, and doubles and triples are essentially unchanged. AVG and OBP are identical too.

Isn't it wonderful to draw conclusions from fractions of seasons? Well, maybe "conclusions" isn't the right word. Isn't wild speculation wonderful fun? There, that's better.