Posted by cbriese on 12/29/2010 11:14:00 PM (view original):
I like it being difficult. I just want to make sure it's accurate.

A couple of years ago I submitted a ticket to WIS asking which coach had the greatest effect upon the development of a catcher's PC. They said the fielding coach did. I asked them to double check, and they said, "yep, it's the fielding coach". There are some things that just aren't right.

In HR this season my team ended up with 156 (+) plays and 4 (-) plays. That 152 play delta was twice as much as any other team had. Yet my DER is less than anton's and just slightly better than a handful of other teams'. I fear that, in many way, +/- is purely cosmetic.

• Fielding coaches have the greatest impact developmentally on your organization. They affect each level and every position, and you can visibly see the difference between a high-end fielding coach versus a mediocre one. Other coaches can simply have their effects nullified by proper game management on your end.
• I got on patrickm about UZR and BABIP before, thinking these could easily be added to the statistics on the system. They shouldn't be hard for the simulation to account for and actually provide to us. I feel like there's a hole in the logic of DER that just doesn't correlate with on-field performance... I'm just working to figure out where it is. I'm wondering if it's more of a "only as strong as the weakest link" situation where across the board mediocrity is more favorable than 7 gold glovers and one statue... I just don't know how that could be quantified into the statistics.
• Pitches themselves wouldn't account for defensive fielding. The sinker in the sim doesn't actually draw any more groundballs than the fastball, that's strictly based on the groundball/flyball ratio. I've seen sinkerball pitchers with very low GB/FB ratings that survive off drawing flyballs... But the pitch ratings themselves more or less correlate to what the batter is actually seeing. Generally it's more visible with strikeouts when someone has exceptionally strong ratings, but when factoring in PC, a pitcher with a weak pitch might be mixing in one or two bad pitches an inning that lead to most of the damage they face. It's not like it's programmed in for batters to wait on pitches, but it's more or less random when they'll face a subpar pitch. It'd be great if play-by-play indicated the pitch thrown on specific plays...
• If pitching stats do affect it, I see it being more in regards to the vL and VR ratings.
• HBD has a lot of mislabeled players at different positions. I think that's created a haves and have-nots situation where people playing them at their labeled position are suffering, and people who are playing them at their best positional fit generally reap some rewards, but the DER you're coming back with doesn't necessarily support it. If you're looking at HR, the left side of my infield involved Terrell and Moorhouse for most the season, and to my knowledge that might be the best fielding SS/3B combo I've seen in HBD. But I don't know how much of an impact those two have when the right side of the infield is somewhat weak, and a lot of their effectiveness can be tied back to the batters themselves. Push/Pull ratings might never be fully analyzed as to their significance in this game... It seems like more or less players are hovering around the median in that category with a few outliers being definitive push or pull guys, when it seems like there are more pull hitters in real life... But if the batter is effectively able to hit both ways, it might negate any attempts to load up defensive talent and allow for more hits going towards the weaker fielders... Speculation that ties back into my "weakest link" point earlier.
• I had been told before that having a 90 range SS next to a 65 range 3B was actually meant less ground was covered than an 80 SS next to a 75 3B... While the first team would have a gold glover, the second team would have better defense. The conversation was specific to playing two poor range 2B side-by-side as a 2B and a 1B... For infielder range, the sum seems to be more beneficial than a truly outstanding individual.

Posted by larry_jew on 12/30/2010 8:28:00 AM (view original):

local news here rules.  Listening to rednecks give earthquake reports...

"This one was way worse than the last.  It shook my whole house, and I live in a double-wide."

I trust you.  Just send my 10% when you get a chance.

"Well, the first thing I'd like to clear up is that this was no earthquake.  This was alien terrorists from Mars..."

How could they have cut that guy off?

Posted by cbriese on 12/29/2010 11:14:00 PM (view original):
I like it being difficult. I just want to make sure it's accurate.

A couple of years ago I submitted a ticket to WIS asking which coach had the greatest effect upon the development of a catcher's PC. They said the fielding coach did. I asked them to double check, and they said, "yep, it's the fielding coach". There are some things that just aren't right.

In HR this season my team ended up with 156 (+) plays and 4 (-) plays. That 152 play delta was twice as much as any other team had. Yet my DER is less than anton's and just slightly better than a handful of other teams'. I fear that, in many way, +/- is purely cosmetic.