great minds think alike...

But this batter didn't hit a HR, or anywhere to the outfield, the question would be would Kirk Gibson beat a throw from an INFIELD single in 1988 (and Kirk could at least trot so I would say he was above 20% ).

Plus I would likely say a batter who has played his last 50 game appearances at 0% more or less should have a broken leg and would have to crawl around the bases (or be carried).

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/unbelievable-act-of-sportsmanship/

I stopped reading the play by plays years ago. I am reminded that I made the right decision.

Posted by ozomatli on 9/9/2019 6:29:00 PM (view original):
It took halfway through the season, but I finally got my first schwarze

Gathering data from commissioners -- will post aggregated advanced standings later tonight

Looking forward to this.

Yes, by "tonight" I apparently meant "later this week"

On my to do list

I'm interested in this because it's revealing to see which first half factors are best predictive of second half results.

In the past, expected win % has been more predictive than record in 2+-run games, which was surprising to me. I thought all the blow-outs in WIS would mean expected win % wasn't that relevant. But we'll see what happens this year.

Both of these have been, by a distance, more predictive than straight win-loss record - because wins are really fluky even over 1/2 a season.

Posted by brianjw on 9/11/2019 8:56:00 AM (view original):
I'm interested in this because it's revealing to see which first half factors are best predictive of second half results.

In the past, expected win % has been more predictive than record in 2+-run games, which was surprising to me. I thought all the blow-outs in WIS would mean expected win % wasn't that relevant. But we'll see what happens this year.

Both of these have been, by a distance, more predictive than straight win-loss record - because wins are really fluky even over 1/2 a season.

Posts like this are why I still enjoy this site. When I read this I feel like the bee in the Blind Melon No Rain video when she finds the other bees.

Posted by brianjw on 9/11/2019 8:56:00 AM (view original):
I'm interested in this because it's revealing to see which first half factors are best predictive of second half results.

In the past, expected win % has been more predictive than record in 2+-run games, which was surprising to me. I thought all the blow-outs in WIS would mean expected win % wasn't that relevant. But we'll see what happens this year.

Both of these have been, by a distance, more predictive than straight win-loss record - because wins are really fluky even over 1/2 a season.

Do I hear multivariate statistics? Looking forward to a principal components analysis.

Second...Whatever that is...

Posted by BigScungil on 9/11/2019 12:26:00 PM (view original):

Posted by brianjw on 9/11/2019 8:56:00 AM (view original):
I'm interested in this because it's revealing to see which first half factors are best predictive of second half results.

In the past, expected win % has been more predictive than record in 2+-run games, which was surprising to me. I thought all the blow-outs in WIS would mean expected win % wasn't that relevant. But we'll see what happens this year.

Both of these have been, by a distance, more predictive than straight win-loss record - because wins are really fluky even over 1/2 a season.

Do I hear multivariate statistics? Looking forward to a principal components analysis.

Heh, that would be fun, but no. I was meaning nothing more than a correlation between second half win total and various things about the first half. And it was surprising to me that in the past, the highest correlation was with expected win percentage. Probably this is missing something subtle that some fancy analysis would reveal, but it's still a bit informative I think.

Meanwhile, at the bottom of the standings...

Will we see roster analysis for the $110M theme?

Posted by schwarze on 9/12/2019 3:40:00 PM (view original):
Will we see roster analysis for the $110M theme?

Yes, soon