I GOT SCREWED BY WIS!!! Topic

arssanguinus
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Quote: Originally posted by arssanguinus on 1/18/2010
Quote: Originally posted by arssanguinus on 1/18/2010
1/18/2010 7:09 PM
mrpolo09
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wait, so you're saying the odds of making a layup, FT, 3, and half court shot are all the same???
1/18/2010 7:10 PM
colonels19
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I find the mushroom penises disturbing
1/18/2010 7:10 PM
colonels19
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mrpolo...I don't have enough information, but in its purest form, there are 2 outcomes.
1/18/2010 7:11 PM
mrpolo09
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okay. so odds of making a half court shot are 50/50. odds of making a layup are 50/50....

what information do you need? according to your views, all four shots have the same odds of going in.
1/18/2010 7:14 PM
mrpolo09
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i see we are in the wrong class here. math is just not colonels strong point. we need to go across the hall to English. . . ..


odds: the probability that something will occur or is more likely to occur than something else

probability: the relative frequency with which an event occurs or is likely to occur.

1/18/2010 7:14 PM
colonels19
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mea culpa
1/18/2010 7:16 PM
colonels19
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The point was, the guy's chances of making a free throw don't get any better or worse because he's made X amount in a row or missed X amount in a row and as usual it got lost in the fray.
1/18/2010 7:25 PM
arssanguinus
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Are you going to LOL at yourself and call yourself a boob now, COlonels?
1/18/2010 7:27 PM
schroedess26
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This post could not be converted. To view the original post's thread, click here.
1/18/2010 7:29 PM
colonels19
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What I was arguing essentially and eventually came out wrong and I got caught up in the ridiculousness of the argument, and failed to realize how much I was mis-speaking. I'm certainly a boob for not realizing this sooner...my apologies.
1/18/2010 7:30 PM
schroedess26
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Quote: Originally posted by colonels19 on 1/18/2010The point was, the guy's chances of making a free throw don't get any better or worse because he's made X amount in a row or missed X amount in a row and as usual it got lost in the fray.

Will you bet me then that the Lakers vs the Nets the rest of the season? It is a 50/50 as you say since they both can either win or lose.
1/18/2010 7:31 PM
mrpolo09
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its all cool. anyone that can admit when they're wrong is okay in my book.. . .

and colonels. thats what we've been saying all along. its just that the starting value is not 50%. if a guy shoots 80% and missed 10 in a row, his odds on the next FT are still 80%.
1/18/2010 7:31 PM
mrpolo09
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Quote: Originally posted by schroedess26 on 1/18/2010
Quote: Originally posted by colonels19 on 1/18/2010The point was, the guy's chances of making a free throw don't get any better or worse because he's made X amount in a row or missed X amount in a row and as usual it got lost in the fray.
Will you bet me then that the Lakers vs the Nets the rest of the season? It is a 50/50 as you say since they both can either win or lose.

guys, he's admitted to his mistake. drop it.
1/18/2010 7:32 PM
colonels19
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Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 1/18/2010
Lol...ok then

Let's compare the dice throwing to free throws. The odds of making a free throw are 50-50....let's say a player makes 90% of his free throws over the course of an entire season...the odds are still 50-50, but isn't it more likely for him to make one or both because of how good he is/has become shooting free throws? Its just like this woman with the dice....let's say before she got to Atlantic City, she's practicing and throwing a 7 or what have you 90% of the time. I'm not sure what the exact probability of throwing a 7 is...5% or so...less?....but if the odds are still 1 out of 20 or what have you isn't she more prone to throw more consecutive 7s because she's practiced throwing 7s or what have you? The odds may be the same, but the likelyhood of her throwing a 7 over Joe Blow is significantly greater.

On top of all of this, he's comparing real life randomness with sim randomness which he admits how real life has more random factors.

Here was the original posts and this is where it all began to go wrong, I again apologize for carrying on this argument while not realizing my missteps.
1/18/2010 7:33 PM
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