One more losing sesh and I’m going insane

I just don’t understand the sim sometimes (all the time)….if my team was good enough to go 68-25, how is it suddenly so bad it can’t win 2 games in a row and has gone 5-15 over it’s last 20 with a sweet 1-8 record in extras….I’m getting swept by last place teams at this point. Is the team good or not?! I have no idea.

annnnd swept by another last place team. this quickly becomes tedious.

Posted by ronthegenius on 7/20/2023 7:33:00 PM (view original):

Posted by redcped on 7/17/2023 2:36:00 PM (view original):

Posted by schwarze on 7/17/2023 1:35:00 PM (view original):
57-63 record since the midway point. Nobody else in the top 40 overall has done worst since then. I figured there's be some regression. But geez.

I'm not exactly what anyone would call an optimist, so I've been expecting regression since Opening Day. Part of me believes I'm going to hit a triple mauch every single day. The miracle is we've passed 100 games without it happening yet.

Redcped’s domination has been incredibly consistent and thorough so far. Every team and every 1/6th span of games. No weaknesses or slumps - very well done.

Alas, all this does is reinforce my imposter syndrome. Why would suddenly all the stars align for this set of teams in this competition? Must be a cosmic correction coming soon, I'm sure.

Posted by cubbies84 on 7/21/2023 1:47:00 PM (view original):
I just don’t understand the sim sometimes (all the time)….if my team was good enough to go 68-25, how is it suddenly so bad it can’t win 2 games in a row and has gone 5-15 over it’s last 20 with a sweet 1-8 record in extras….I’m getting swept by last place teams at this point. Is the team good or not?! I have no idea.

I feel every bit of your pain. That feels like almost every WIS team I have.

Here's a fun way to get knocked out of the division lead (and potentially miss the playoffs).

Blow an 11-3 lead in the 8th inning, when Andrew Bailey (0.88 whip) and Wade Davis (0.85 whip) combine to give up 8 runs w/o recording an out. They were 100% and weren't even overused during the inning. They combined to throw only 26 pitches.

5-1, 4-2, 1-5, 0-6. I’m seriously considering making this my last tournament. The inconsistency nullifies all the time spent roster building and managing. Feels like the results would be exactly the same if I just left all my teams on autopilot.

i just dont understand how 100 games in teams are what they are, except when they arent.

Another ****** day costs me another playoff team and sees what was an 8-game division lead 10 games ago now down to 3. I’m tapping out of this garbage. Good luck to everyone the rest of the way.

Posted by cubbies84 on 7/22/2023 12:06:00 PM (view original):
i just dont understand how 100 games in teams are what they are, except when they arent.

I just built a table in Excel to simulate 100 seasons of a team with a "true" winning percentage of .550.

Here are just a few examples:
Season 1:
Record after 100 games: 58-42 (.580)
Record in games 101-162: 32-30 (.516)
Season 3:
Record after 100 games: 47-53 (.470)
Record in games 101-162: 40-22 (.645)
Season 4:
Record after 100 games: 57-43 (.570)
Record in games 101-162: 32-30 (.516)
Season 7:
Record after 100 games: 57-43 (.570)
Record in games 101-162: 28-34 (.452)
Season Season 9:
Record after 100 games: 59-41 (.590)
Record in games 101-162: 26-36 (.419)
Season 13:
Record after 100 games: 56-44 (.560)
Record in games 101-162: 43-19 (.694)

I could go on and on and on...those are just from the first 13 sets of 162 games.

This is as pure a simulation as you can create. No accounting for fatigue or quality of opposition or team matchups or manager decisions or anything - just run the random variable over and over again.

Anyone who thinks there is ANYTHING unusual about a simulated baseball team's performance fluctuating susbtantially after 100 games needs to learn some basic probability and statistics.

On more than one occasion, I've run "Same Roster Challenge" theme leagues where 24 teams all used the exact same players (and same ballpark). Using the exact same teams, you see some teams win 95 games and others lose 95 games. And there is wide variation in stats for the exact same players. I'm sure there is a forum post somewhere out related to this.

Schwarze in the PM2 sesh!

And thank you for the analysis on the randomness of results. Both the post-100 sim and the “Same Roster Challenge” bear out some longstanding closely held beliefs. I choose to take comfort from what you’ve shared and to keep plugging.

all 6 of my teams are playing below expected win %

my 110m team is 0-10 in extra innings..

I have moved up to 4th place after being in 84th place on day 3

First 12 sessions - 29-43 .403

Next 106 sessions 369-267 .580

Stand by for forum jinx

I just completed my best ever schwarze, not that run differential really matters. Nevertheless, I just won all 6 pm games by a combined 39-4 score. Throw in my 3-0 Juice tourney games as well and I won all nine tournament games by a 68-11 differential with 5 shutouts.