Since you want to complicate things - You will have to clarify the injuries... I will take the 5 injuries.... (clarify things like - what do you mean 10 games simultaneaously, which players, etc.)

I am in for the bet. $25 for the Hawks ending up as an 8th seed or worse (including your 'excuse' clause) and $25 that Frolik ends up with 'Less Than' 20 goals this season (20 goals = you win).


I won't bet on the flyers - call it superstition. But I will say the flyers are a playoff team with injuries or without. They have a ton of depth still and executive management that will go out and spend for more if they need it before the trade deadline. The organization has missed the playoffs 7 times in its entire history... 5 of those years were due to no talent. I'm pretty sure they can handle a bunch of injuries. We get them every season.


Also - Flyers are NOT doing anything close to what the hawks did. They kept the guys like Giroux and JVR (Hawks dumped guys like Ladd and Buff). Then they retooled with NHL Ready prospects like Simmonds, Voracek, Schenn (unlike the hawks who retooled with draft picks and non-nhl ready players like Morin, Paradis, Stalberg, and DiDomenico). The flyers traded the so-called 'core' and the hawks kept theirs. We discarded our deadweight (Boosh, SOD, Carcillo, Versteeg, etc) whereas the hawks are collecting it (Mayers, SOD, Carcillo). I don't see the similarity?


Lastly. There is a difference between getting players with:

'high talent AND high character'
OR
'low talent AND high character'
OR
'high talent AND low character'


Which do you think the Hawks acquired? Carcillo, SOD, Mayers, Lepisto, Brunette, Montador.

First off no team in the league has 23 high talent, high character guys. The Hawks needed to go out and complement a core which no one can deny is among the league's best and most talented. They did that exceptionally better than they did last season.

Secondly, you cannot equate losing Byfuglien and Ladd to Carter and Richards. Expecting Schenn and co. to replace the guys you lost is exactly the same as the Hawks expecting Morin and co. to do the same last season. The difference is the Flyers are asking young players to replace their core, not depth players. Say what you want about everyone the Hawks got rid of, but on their roster, Versteeg, Ladd, Byfuglien and the rest were not top line players. Byfuglien since went on to have 3 good months and 4 where he was invisible in the middle of his team's playoff race, Versteeg is on his 3rd team in less than 2 seasons, and Ladd had a career season scoring 59 points playing first line minutes.

As far as the bet, since we cannot agree when it comes to injuries (call my sticking to that superstition as well, as I feel I may jinx them injury-wise), let's make the 25$ bet only on Frolik if you prefer. If you still would like to do both, then the players I would consider for the injury clause are Toews, Kane, Sharp, Hossa, Keith and Seabrook.

Posted by andru2797 on 7/19/2011 3:44:00 PM (view original):
First off no team in the league has 23 high talent, high character guys. The Hawks needed to go out and complement a core which no one can deny is among the league's best and most talented. They did that exceptionally better than they did last season.

Secondly, you cannot equate losing Byfuglien and Ladd to Carter and Richards. Expecting Schenn and co. to replace the guys you lost is exactly the same as the Hawks expecting Morin and co. to do the same last season. The difference is the Flyers are asking young players to replace their core, not depth players. Say what you want about everyone the Hawks got rid of, but on their roster, Versteeg, Ladd, Byfuglien and the rest were not top line players. Byfuglien since went on to have 3 good months and 4 where he was invisible in the middle of his team's playoff race, Versteeg is on his 3rd team in less than 2 seasons, and Ladd had a career season scoring 59 points playing first line minutes.

As far as the bet, since we cannot agree when it comes to injuries (call my sticking to that superstition as well, as I feel I may jinx them injury-wise), let's make the 25$ bet only on Frolik if you prefer. If you still would like to do both, then the players I would consider for the injury clause are Toews, Kane, Sharp, Hossa, Keith and Seabrook.

Lets just keep it to $25 for Frolik. If a bet is getting that complicated it should not be bet on.

I understand no team has 23 high talent, high character guys.... but you filled the bottom half of your team with low skilled, high PIM brutes. You say the FAs you acquired are 'high character' players. I guess we should clarify - do you mean high character as in Toews character - i.e. always trying 100%, do the right things at the right times, top leadership, guys play better around him - or do you mean high character as in Carcillo/Mayers character - i.e. always fighting and taking on stupid penalties but never take **** from anyone? I don't know much about Monty but other than Brunette the Hawks acquired a bunch of meatheads with low-end skill. Yes the hawks needed some physicality - and they got it - infact they got toooo much. I personally think the Hawks swung the pendulum from way way way too much inexperienced, highly skilled (potentialwise), low physicality players to way way way too many low-skilled (no potential), high physicality players (like John Scott). Character is a none-issue.


Next, I think you misunderstood me.... I was saying that if the hawks did the same as the flyers they would have unloaded Kane and Toews (Carts and Richie)... and promoted Ladd and Buff (JVR and Giroux). These young players we got back and are asking to step up are 3 year NHL vets (Simmonds and Voracek) with over 200 games each, unlike Morin, Stalberg, etc. Only Voracek (38, 50, 46 points) is being asked to be a top 6 player. Hartnell-Briere-Voracek, JVR-Giroux-Jagr. Simmonds will be on the 3rd line with C/W Talbot and the inexperienced Brayden Schenn. You are mistaken if you think Homer expects Schenn to replace the guys we lost. He will only get 3rd line minutes and his expectations are to mimic Richie's rookie season (34 points, solid 2-way play). Don't forget we used that money from unloading "our core" to buy ourselves a goalie and keep our Defense intact. Those are the players expected to offset to scoring that we lost in Carts and Richie.

I actually think the Flyers did the complete OPPOSITE of the Hawks.

Couple other points -

I love how you bring up Buff playing poorly for 1/2 the season on a way more crappy team than the Hawks ... remind me how many goals Toews had down the stretch last season when the Hawks were fighting for a playoff spot... and how many goals he scored in 7 playoff games? Buff is a solid player (even though Hawks fan are in denial). If Buff had Toews work ethic he'd be unstoppable. Hell - even inconsistent as Buff was/is.... how many other DMen can score 20 goals? Most teams are lucky to get 10 goals out of a DMan.

I agree the Hawks have a solid core (although less solid w/o Campbell)... Its the way they fill out the other 2/3rds of the roster where they suck.

In other news.... Stamkos finally signed.... 5 yr @ 7.5 aav

Agreed on the bet...better keep it simple.

As for the guys the Hawks acquired, you have to keep a few things in perspective here. Let's analyze the Hawks signings a little more deeply...

First, the only forward who will be getting any significant ice time consistently is Brunette, who by all accounts is a good leader, model teammate and character player. He also has good finishing skill around the net and is supremely durable. The big plus with him is that his game was never predicated on speed, so his age is not a factor in terms of losing a step. He will likely play most of the season as either LW1 or LW2 and get significant PP time as well, an area where he excels. He also understands coach Q and his system having played for him during some of his best seasons in the NHL.

Second we have Steve Montador, the other player who will get over 15 mins per game consistently. The last two years I've seen him quite a bit living in Montreal (and him being in Buffalo). Here's a guy who is somewhat physical, is a good shot blocker and penalty killer, is a decent skater and make a pretty good first pass. He doesn't turn the puck over a ton, but when he does it usually ends up going. He's the type of player that can play up and down the lineup, can provide good leadership for the younger defensemen like Nick Leddy, and doesn't really take nights off. Defensively he's an upgrade over Brian Campbell, offensively he's a downgrade.

Jamal Mayers will have a clearly defined role on this team: play 4th line center most nights, win some faceoffs, which he's done at a clip of over 55% the last few seasons, and maybe kill the occasional penalty. He'll also be asked to finish his checks, and occasionally drop the gloves. He's another guy who has played for Q before and will understand his role and the system well, but he won't be getting more than 10 mins per night.

Sean O'Donnell is a defenseman who is rugged and tough with lots of experience who will be filling the role of mentor and 6th or 7th defenseman. You know all about what he brings to the table so I won't go into detail here, but he's not playing in a spot where he'll be on the ice for more than say 13-15 mins per game. I think a player of his skill set and his experience will more than adequately fill that role.

Sami Lepisto I don't know a ton about to be honest, other than that he's a good skater with a bit of a mean streak. He makes a good first pass and will be playing anywhere from 5th to 7th in the d-corps, depending on Q's mood.

And finally we have Dan Carcillo, a player who is a gamble. He can be a loose cannon on the ice, but when he's actually playing he has good speed, is very physical and a relentless forechecker. He's also one of the best agitators in the game and will be learning alot from Dave Bolland, a guy who has learned to play on the edge without going over it. He'll be playing the 12th or 13th forward role, with no more than 10-12 mins per game in his future.

So you see, what you perceive as "loading the bottom half with no talent goons" isn't actually that. It's filling roles with the appropriately priced players with the right skill sets. You can't sign a Tim Connolly to play C4 and kill penalties, just like you can't have Jamal Mayers playing C2 and on the PP. They also have 3 players I believe are talented enough to do more, they just need to go out and prove it. The "talent with potential" tag you referred to can be applied to all of Viktor Stalberg, Michael Frolik and Rostislav Olesz.

Here's what their lineup looks like right now:

Brunette-Toews-Kane
Frolik-Sharp-Hossa
Bickell-Bolland-Olesz
Stalberg-Mayers-Carcillo
Scott-Kruger-Smith

Keith-Leddy
Hjalmarsson-Seabrook
Montador-O'Donnell
Lepisto

Crawford
Salak

I think everyone's role is perfectly defined and that makes a big difference on a hockey team. They also have a few guys that move up in case of injury like Stalberg, Bickell and Ben Smith up front and Montador on D.

I think their most glaring weakness is that, with the loss of Campoli, the back end lacks some creative players that puts alot of pressure on Nick Leddy to replace Campbell in a role that is quite important to this team's success. Can he do it? Possibly, but he'll most likely take his lumps along the way.

I would also prefer Patrick Sharp on the wing, but he's an excellent centerman so that need isn't as pressing I don't think.

So where did I go wrong?

BTW, sorry for the long-winded post...probably should have split it up, lol.

Posted by moy23 on 7/19/2011 5:24:00 PM (view original):
Couple other points -

I love how you bring up Buff playing poorly for 1/2 the season on a way more crappy team than the Hawks ... remind me how many goals Toews had down the stretch last season when the Hawks were fighting for a playoff spot... and how many goals he scored in 7 playoff games? Buff is a solid player (even though Hawks fan are in denial). If Buff had Toews work ethic he'd be unstoppable. Hell - even inconsistent as Buff was/is.... how many other DMen can score 20 goals? Most teams are lucky to get 10 goals out of a DMan.

I agree the Hawks have a solid core (although less solid w/o Campbell)... Its the way they fill out the other 2/3rds of the roster where they suck.

I didn't mean to downplay the fact that Byfuglien is a good player, but if he doesn't improve his work ethic and conditioning, that's all he'll ever be. I agree that he COULD be dominant, I just think he doesn't have the will to be and in the end, that's all that matters doesn't it? Alexandre Daigle had all the talent in the world...where is he now?

As for Toews, he had a remarkably consistent season compared to Buff. Look up his splits and compare. All of Buff's numbers came in OCT, NOV and DEC.

Posted by moy23 on 7/19/2011 12:50:00 AM (view original):

Posted by andru2797 on 7/18/2011 10:14:00 PM (view original):
Like I said, I'm just not a betting man...but it is telling how moy refuses to accept it. To me that simply implies that if the Hawks stay relatively healthy, he believes they're easily a top 7 team. ;-)

My my.... Isn't it just as telling that you are refusing to accept it without an injury clause..... It simply implies you think when healthy the hawks are barely a top 7 team.


HAWKS FINISH THE SEASON AS AN 8 SEED OR LOWER..... NO EXCUSES. Typical hawks fan trying to add in an 'excuse' clause.

I guess I'm atypical?

Posted by mudbone1969 on 7/19/2011 9:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by moy23 on 7/19/2011 12:50:00 AM (view original):

Posted by andru2797 on 7/18/2011 10:14:00 PM (view original):
Like I said, I'm just not a betting man...but it is telling how moy refuses to accept it. To me that simply implies that if the Hawks stay relatively healthy, he believes they're easily a top 7 team. ;-)

My my.... Isn't it just as telling that you are refusing to accept it without an injury clause..... It simply implies you think when healthy the hawks are barely a top 7 team.


HAWKS FINISH THE SEASON AS AN 8 SEED OR LOWER..... NO EXCUSES. Typical hawks fan trying to add in an 'excuse' clause.

I guess I'm atypical?

lol... the season hasn't even begun... there is plenty of time for you to pull out the excuse book.

Andru - only time will tell.

To me the Hawks are banking on TOO MUCH to go right:

Brunette-Toews-Kane
Frolik-Sharp-Hossa
Bickell-Bolland-Olesz
Stalberg-Mayers-Carcillo
Scott-Kruger-Smith

Of course your top 2 lines are solid.... even though I don't think Frolik will score 20 goals I think he can play on the 2nd line and you guys will be fine. But the bottom three lines ----

1) Will the oft-injured Bolland be healthy? (Of all the guys in the bottom 9 he is the best of them)
2) Will any of Stalberg (24 points/77 games), Smith (1 point/6 games), Olesz (17 points /44 games), Bickell (37 points/78 games), Kruger (0 points/7 games) have a break out season? In the case of Smith and Kruger they are rookies so I wouldn't bet on anything too crazy. Olesz has been a huge bust so far - will he get to 50 point form on a new team? Bickell I think will be the 50 point guy outta these 5.... if I had to choose one.
3) Scott playing forward - he was a joke as a DMan I don't see him any better at Forward
4) Carcillo and Mayers - Both players don't bring a lot to the table. Will they be more help than hinder?
5) In case of injuries to the top 6 - will any of these players step it up - can they?

They biggest question - Can the top 6 stay healthy?


Next up the D:

Keith-Leddy
Hjalmarsson-Seabrook
Montador-O'Donnell
Lepisto


IMO Leddy is not ready for 1st line duty (7 points/-3/ 46 games). Keith was pretty streaky last season - will he back in Norris form? Hammer and Seabs is a great 2nd pairing - no worries there. Montador is fine playing the 5th Dman role. Lepisto.... who? Be prepared for SOD's penalties... he takes on A LOT. He gets beat a lot due to his age/speed and will take the penalty to stop the guy.

Which brings me to Goalies:

Crawford
Salak

Crawford had a great rookie season - not calder-like as muddy would claim - but he was solid. I personally think he carried the hawks more than Toews last season. That said - Can he handle the increased PIMs and the increased PKs? A lot of pressure will remain on the second year player. I think he will put up similar #s but will that be enough? Salak - well, he's one you hope you don't NEED to see what he is capable of. It would mean something very bad happened to Crawford.


Only time will tell..... I'm sure I will revisit this post at some point, good or bad ;)

Everything you said in your assessment is fair and is your opinion. That's fine. I don't ENTIRELY disagree with most of what you said. Bolland (and Hossa) have to play a full season.

There are a couple of things where I would disagree:

- I don't think a 50 point 3rd liner is a necessity, unless there's an injury to the top 6.
- Bickell has to be more of a physical than offensive force, something he was reluctant to do on too many nights last season.
- Olesz at the worst will bring a solid defensive game and responsible play, and at best will find some of the scoring touch that made him such a highly touted draft pick.
- It's alot easier banking on just ONE breakout season from any one of Smith, Kruger, Bickell, Stalberg and Olesz that it is from ALL of them like the team did last season. To some degree, every team pins their hopes on at least one guy filling a bigger role than they did the previous season.
- Leddy didn't look out of place playing with Keith for short spurts, and he definitely has top 4 potential, so why not start the season with him there and see how he handles it? If he doesn't, you move Seabs up with Duncs and play a combination of Leddy and Monty with Hammer.
- Carcillo and Mayers bring what the team needed: toughness, grit, faceoffs and penalty killing, and they do it with so little ice-time that their window to hinder the team isn't very large. Same with OD.

All in all one thing I will agree with you on is that there are alot of questions going into this season. What I keep telling everyone though is that I feel much better going into this season with this roster than I did at this time last year.

I agree with a lot of that post. I think the biggest positive the Hawks pulled off this offseason is getting physical players that can at least skate well enough to 'enforce' when needed. Otherwise Toews and Kane would have had short careers. I still think they overcompensated (to the point they lost too much skill) but hey, thats my opinion.

Unloading Campbells contract was big. Although it does not help them this season, it will help later on when they are not carrying a 35-36 year old with a $7+ mil cap hit and when they want to re-sign Sharp for next season.

You guys are fecking up this thread with your pisseries.

  Fecking?  is that like necking but with a little pen? like the head only? and no panting like a dog?   ..if you hit the ceiling with the money shot..is it still fecking or full blown f-cking?