Early Entries - seble responds Topic

zhawks
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I just lost him to EE.
2/13/2010 9:31 AM
zhawks
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More proof that stats litteraly do not matter, what-so-ever.
2/13/2010 9:31 AM
tracyr
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not reading thru 13 pages of this - but i did read that project draft position and postseason success has something to do with the decision to leave - and then some randomness thrown in - fine, but how does this happen

UCLA - IBA - 2 EE's - did not make the NCAA or PIT (thanks to forgetting to schedule)

seriously, 2 EE's off one non-postseason team - what are the odds?, since at that point, it's randomness (supposedly)
2/13/2010 9:43 AM
tracyr
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and yes, they both got drafted in the first round
2/13/2010 9:44 AM
zhawks
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Interesting tracyr, goes to show that EEs might need more work then was believed. Although I do think that it is ok for players to leave off of poor teams if EEs are going to be part of the game, the fact that it has been stated that postseason success is most important AND that they are supposedly a way to "Even the playing field" that shouldn't happen.
2/13/2010 11:58 AM
seble
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Postseason success is not the most important. Ratings are the most important. Team success is a modifier. Then the decision to come out is determined by where that value places them in the draft along with their class. A younger player would require a higher draft slot before leaving than an older player. Then there is some random chance at the end.
2/13/2010 12:28 PM
zhawks
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2/13/2010 12:35 PM
seble
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I don't think I would have said that, but I'd have to see the message. My guess is that something was taken out of context.
2/13/2010 12:47 PM
fd343ny
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Quote: Originally Posted By seble on 2/13/2010Postseason success is not the most important. Ratings are the most important. Team success is a modifier. Then the decision to come out is determined by where that value places them in the draft along with their class. A younger player would require a higher draft slot before leaving than an older player. Then there is some random chance at the end
it makes total sense that postseason success is not most important - I assume - and think there have been statements indicating that the steps are something like

1. establish universe of kids who kid go EE based on ratings (since it is step one, it is most important, in a sense)

2. then adjust odds of actual EE for each kid based on some combination of

a. post season team success

b. the kid's stats

c. the kid's personality/propensity to leave/stay etc

d. projected draft position (which may be a separate variable or just a way of summarizing items 1, 2a and 2b)

3. then let loose the random number generator and we see who goes EE

Now, once upon a time stats were MORE significant and could be controlled to keep a kid for additional seasons. When that changed, we lost our ability to do much about this. And so, we look at postseason success looming large because a bunch of other factors are inside the black box

I WISH there was some ability to affect the process. My favorite concept would be to create a further promise loop - have the kid send a message that he is THINKING about leaving early and give the coach options to promise starting role, promise minutes, give him an escalade, in order to induce him to stay.....
2/13/2010 12:52 PM
seble
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I understand completely that desire to have more control over it, but in reality most of those guys are already starting and/or playing good minutes, so a kid isn't going to pass up a guaranteed NBA contract because of that.

As I've said before, I think there are some tweaks that can be made to limit the damage to a single team. That seems to be the main concern.
2/13/2010 1:01 PM
zhawks
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Quote: Originally posted by seble on 2/13/2010I understand completely that desire to have more control over it, but in reality most of those guys are already starting and/or playing good minutes, so a kid isn't going to pass up a guaranteed NBA contract because of that.

As I've said before, I think there are some tweaks that can be made to limit the damage to a single team. That seems to be the main concern.

I understand that you have said we'll look into in the future, which is fantastic seble and is very appreciated.

But that said there have been numerous players that are pointed out on a yearly basis that people have questions as to why they , or why many other players didn't leave when they lost 3+ players.
2/13/2010 1:14 PM
mullycj
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Quote: Originally Posted By seble on 2/13/2010I understand completely that desire to have more control over it, but in reality most of those guys are already starting and/or playing good minutes, so a kid isn't going to pass up a guaranteed NBA contract because of that.

As I've said before, I think there are some tweaks that can be made to limit the damage to a single team. That seems to be the main concern.
I think the piece WIS misses completely is the fact that in REAL LIFE many players who are good enough tom be drafted still stay the EXTRA SEASON to improve their draft spot.

I have no problem with a player leaving early who is a top 10 pick But to have a SO. leave early just to get drafted in the 2nd round is dumb and happens way to often in HD.
2/13/2010 1:53 PM
seble
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Some top players in HD do stay even if they're slotted to be drafted high. That's what leads to all the "Why did player X leave but player Y didn't".
2/13/2010 2:11 PM
metsmax
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I remember when I was doing a home visit at the Fuller house and he promised his mom that he would get his degree no matter what......his ratings are nice as his junior year runs on....I'm hoping that less-than-stellar PERI will make the NBA scouts wonder about his ability to shoot at the next level.....

NameYr.Pos.ASPDREBDEBLKLPPEBHPWESTDUFTTOT
Phillip FoleyJr.SG99100359816218999100788968B892
2/13/2010 3:43 PM
dalter
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Quote: Originally Posted By seble on 2/13/2010



I understand completely that desire to have more control over it, but in reality most of those guys are already starting and/or playing good minutes, so a kid isn't going to pass up a guaranteed NBA contract because of that.

OK, so does that mean it should only be for kids who are going to be selected in the first round? Because while I appreciate your point, that's the only way they're getting a guaranteed NBA contract. That's a huge distinction.

As I've said before, I think there are some tweaks that can be made to limit the damage to a single team. That seems to be the main concern.

I think there are a couple main concerns, that may be one of them. But above all else, I think people are just frustrated when the early entries don't make sense -- when one kid leaves and there are half a dozen other guys who are clearly better than him that stay. I see guys 98-99 in all the cores that stay.

2/13/2010 5:56 PM
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