Which on for Cy Young Topic

kcden
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Posted by oriolemagic on 2/21/2012 4:57:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/21/2012 4:51:00 PM (view original):
It's not hard to figure out that anyone starting a thread like this is complaining because their guy didn't win.

KCD's point is that it's been said that ERA/WHIP are largely factors of "luck".  He's pointing out that Ducey's ratings didn't change but his FIP changed dramatically.  IOW, luck. 
There is a line between complaining and inquiring.

I dont care that his HRA dropped as a result of variance, luck or whatever.  Thats irrelevant.  Whats relevant is no matter how you look at the advanced stats, Ducey was the better pitcher this year.  Cy Young is not a career achievement so I dont care about previous years.
lol, he was the better pitcher, he just allowed more baserunners (on a total and rate basis) and more runs (on a total and rate basis).
2/21/2012 4:58 PM
oriolemagic
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Did you read anything Bobzilla wrote?  Did you read what I wrote?  No matter how you look at the advanced stats..


2/21/2012 5:02 PM
kcden
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Posted by oriolemagic on 2/21/2012 5:02:00 PM (view original):
Did you read anything Bobzilla wrote?  Did you read what I wrote?  No matter how you look at the advanced stats..


Yeah, it still comes down to Sheldon ACTUALLY ALLOWED runs and baserunners at a much better rate than Ducey, to the point that you can add a 4.55 ERA pitcher for those extra innings to make up that difference.
You must have missed the two times I said "BASEBALL IS NOT AN EXACT SCIENCE" or something of the like.  Those advanced stats are nice, but they aren't the end-all-be-all and they aren't near 100% accurate, in MLB or HBD (and are probably far less meaningful in HBD).
2/21/2012 5:06 PM
jvford
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Posted by oriolemagic on 2/21/2012 5:02:00 PM (view original):
Did you read anything Bobzilla wrote?  Did you read what I wrote?  No matter how you look at the advanced stats..


We all read what you and Bobzilla wrote.  You're both just wrong.

Other than FIP, all advanced stats show that Sheldon is the better pitcher.  And FIP is inherently flawed because it allows for too much luck in the HR rate and (incorrectly) assumes that pitchers and hitters in HBD have no control over BABIP.
2/21/2012 5:09 PM
JFerg
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Posted by jvford on 2/21/2012 5:09:00 PM (view original):
Posted by oriolemagic on 2/21/2012 5:02:00 PM (view original):
Did you read anything Bobzilla wrote?  Did you read what I wrote?  No matter how you look at the advanced stats..


We all read what you and Bobzilla wrote.  You're both just wrong.

Other than FIP, all advanced stats show that Sheldon is the better pitcher.  And FIP is inherently flawed because it allows for too much luck in the HR rate and (incorrectly) assumes that pitchers and hitters in HBD have no control over BABIP.
How was anything I said wrong?

Bobzilla
2/21/2012 5:12 PM
jvford
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Posted by JFerg on 2/21/2012 5:12:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jvford on 2/21/2012 5:09:00 PM (view original):
Posted by oriolemagic on 2/21/2012 5:02:00 PM (view original):
Did you read anything Bobzilla wrote?  Did you read what I wrote?  No matter how you look at the advanced stats..


We all read what you and Bobzilla wrote.  You're both just wrong.

Other than FIP, all advanced stats show that Sheldon is the better pitcher.  And FIP is inherently flawed because it allows for too much luck in the HR rate and (incorrectly) assumes that pitchers and hitters in HBD have no control over BABIP.
How was anything I said wrong?

Bobzilla
Well, for one thing your original post claimed that HR are almost 100% controlled by the pitcher and that's completely wrong.
2/21/2012 5:17 PM
kcden
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Bobzilla,
Do you have an equation for Pitcher Runs Created?  I've found the equation for Runs Created (never used it before, just taken for granted that where I saw it calculated it was correct and had the meaning that is claimed), but I can't find one for PRC.
2/21/2012 5:17 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by oriolemagic on 2/21/2012 4:57:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/21/2012 4:51:00 PM (view original):
It's not hard to figure out that anyone starting a thread like this is complaining because their guy didn't win.

KCD's point is that it's been said that ERA/WHIP are largely factors of "luck".  He's pointing out that Ducey's ratings didn't change but his FIP changed dramatically.  IOW, luck. 
There is a line between complaining and inquiring.

I dont care that his HRA dropped as a result of variance, luck or whatever.  Thats irrelevant.  Whats relevant is no matter how you look at the advanced stats, Ducey was the better pitcher this year.  Cy Young is not a career achievement so I dont care about previous years.

ERA, WHIP, BB9, OAV AND K9 say "Pretty sure Sheldon was the better pitcher."    Only 8 of your leaguemates saw what you saw.

2/21/2012 5:18 PM
JFerg
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Posted by jvford on 2/21/2012 5:17:00 PM (view original):
Posted by JFerg on 2/21/2012 5:12:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jvford on 2/21/2012 5:09:00 PM (view original):
Posted by oriolemagic on 2/21/2012 5:02:00 PM (view original):
Did you read anything Bobzilla wrote?  Did you read what I wrote?  No matter how you look at the advanced stats..


We all read what you and Bobzilla wrote.  You're both just wrong.

Other than FIP, all advanced stats show that Sheldon is the better pitcher.  And FIP is inherently flawed because it allows for too much luck in the HR rate and (incorrectly) assumes that pitchers and hitters in HBD have no control over BABIP.
How was anything I said wrong?

Bobzilla
Well, for one thing your original post claimed that HR are almost 100% controlled by the pitcher and that's completely wrong.
When I meant controlled, I probably should have said that they don't involve fielders.  The only involvement that fielders have on HR is by making HR saving catches.  That's what FIP looks at, plays that don't involve fielders.  Of the three stats that FIP looks at (BB+HBP, K, and HR), home runs are the least stable from year-to-year.

Bobzilla
2/21/2012 5:22 PM
kcden
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Of the three stats that FIP looks at (BB+HBP, K, and HR), home runs are the least stable from year-to-year.
 

Boy, that's a bit of a red flag to me, as far as saying that FIP has great value, given HR is weighted by far the heaviest in the equation.
2/21/2012 5:24 PM
JFerg
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Posted by kcden on 2/21/2012 5:17:00 PM (view original):
Bobzilla,
Do you have an equation for Pitcher Runs Created?  I've found the equation for Runs Created (never used it before, just taken for granted that where I saw it calculated it was correct and had the meaning that is claimed), but I can't find one for PRC.
If you're talking about Bill James' runs created, David Gassko invented a stat called Pitching Runs Created that is on the same scale.  Here's a link:  http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/pitching-runs-created-again/

Bobzilla


2/21/2012 5:30 PM
kcden
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Posted by JFerg on 2/21/2012 5:30:00 PM (view original):
Posted by kcden on 2/21/2012 5:17:00 PM (view original):
Bobzilla,
Do you have an equation for Pitcher Runs Created?  I've found the equation for Runs Created (never used it before, just taken for granted that where I saw it calculated it was correct and had the meaning that is claimed), but I can't find one for PRC.
If you're talking about Bill James' runs created, David Gassko invented a stat called Pitching Runs Created that is on the same scale.  Here's a link:  http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/pitching-runs-created-again/

Bobzilla


Yeah, I saw that article.  I was wondering if you have just the raw equation that he (or whomever) uses... I don't see it in the article, and would rather look at it and evaluate for myself what it is saying than interpreting the fluff of how he's describing it.
2/21/2012 5:41 PM (edited)
JFerg
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Posted by kcden on 2/21/2012 5:24:00 PM (view original):
Of the three stats that FIP looks at (BB+HBP, K, and HR), home runs are the least stable from year-to-year.
 

Boy, that's a bit of a red flag to me, as far as saying that FIP has great value, given HR is weighted by far the heaviest in the equation.
It's weighted the heaviest because HR have that much more of an impact than a BB or K.  You could also look at xFIP which replaces a pitchers HR allowed with the amount a league average pitcher would have given up with the same amount of flyballs.  SIERA and tERA/tRA are two other advanced metrics that do take into account balls in play.  You can also look at Bill James' component ERA.  I pretty much look at them all.

Bobzilla
2/21/2012 5:42 PM
kcden
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Posted by JFerg on 2/21/2012 5:42:00 PM (view original):
Posted by kcden on 2/21/2012 5:24:00 PM (view original):
Of the three stats that FIP looks at (BB+HBP, K, and HR), home runs are the least stable from year-to-year.
 

Boy, that's a bit of a red flag to me, as far as saying that FIP has great value, given HR is weighted by far the heaviest in the equation.
It's weighted the heaviest because HR have that much more of an impact than a BB or K.  You could also look at xFIP which replaces a pitchers HR allowed with the amount a league average pitcher would have given up with the same amount of flyballs.  SIERA and tERA/tRA are two other advanced metrics that do take into account balls in play.  You can also look at Bill James' component ERA.  I pretty much look at them all.

Bobzilla
Yeah, I get why it is weighted heaviest, but if it is by far the least stable from year to year (which makes sense), and is that heavily weighted, that tells me that equation is less valuable or accurate at actually predicting anything.
2/21/2012 5:45 PM
JFerg
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Posted by kcden on 2/21/2012 5:41:00 PM (view original):
Posted by JFerg on 2/21/2012 5:30:00 PM (view original):
Posted by kcden on 2/21/2012 5:17:00 PM (view original):
Bobzilla,
Do you have an equation for Pitcher Runs Created?  I've found the equation for Runs Created (never used it before, just taken for granted that where I saw it calculated it was correct and had the meaning that is claimed), but I can't find one for PRC.
If you're talking about Bill James' runs created, David Gassko invented a stat called Pitching Runs Created that is on the same scale.  Here's a link:  http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/pitching-runs-created-again/

Bobzilla


Yeah, I saw that article.  I was wondering if you have just the raw equation that he (or whomever) uses... I don't see it in the article, and would rather look at it and evaluate for myself what it is saying than interpreting the fluff of how he's describing it.
It's not just a simple equation, but a process.  He includes an example in the article.  

Bobzilla
2/21/2012 5:48 PM
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