Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 2/21/2008
Quote: Originally Posted By hartjh14 on 2/21/2008
mike isn't getting it. Majority is irrelevant here. All that matters is X number of Ks = Y number of runs/game. For mike to win, he needs the number of Ks to increase as the number of runs decreases. For example:
5 Ks = 8 rpg (runs per game)
6 Ks = 7.5 rpg
7 Ks = 7 rpg
etc.
I don't think it's going to work out that way, so he needs to argue to the extreme where it has a chance of working in his favor by throwing out a meaningless statistical measure for this study. Majority doesn't represent anything in this case. All that matters is the relationship between Ks and runs scored and how it changes as the number of Ks increases.
That's silly. Of course it's not going to be a sliding scale. The world doesn't work that way. Flip a coin 50 times. It's not coming up heads 25 times even though, statistically speaking, that's the probability.
But, if out are outs, an extreme number of the ones I think are worse shouldn't alter the runs scored.
But if the sample size is big enough, it will be pretty close. You need to stop giving the hitter all the credit for the strikeout. The pitcher has something to do with it as well. More often than not, if a pitcher strikes out 14, they probably had a pretty good game, which is going to keep scoring down by nature. If they only struck out 4, they probably didn't pitch so well, which will lead to more runs. this isn't rocket science.
Is an out an out? In the big scheme of things and in moderation, yes, it is. In the context of a moment however, an out isn't necessarily an out. Use mike's coin flipping anaolgy here. Most of the time the out type makes no difference. A few times it will, but the bigger the sample size, the less likely it is to matter.