Early Entries - seble responds Topic

dalter
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2/13/2010 5:58 PM
zhawks
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Thanks dalt, exactly what I was referring to.
2/13/2010 6:03 PM
dalter
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As I said, you clearly communicated that they are in place (in large part) to even out the playing field.

That's also why team success plays such a huge role -- yes, I know ratings are #1. But postseason success plays an exponentially larger role in HD than it does in real life, which is line with your above comments and further shows why the most successful teams are being targeted for early entries.

If you look at real life mock drafts before and after the NT, there is barely a change. Maybe a couple guys step up each season and put themselves on the map, but of course that's different as well because it's about their personal performance, not their team's. In HD, I've had guys leave early after a deep run despite shooting 34% from the field for the NT! In real life, almost all of the guys that leave were doing so before the NT even started.

But in HD we all know that the farther our team goes in the NT, the higher the likelihood we'll get hit w. early entries, regardless of how the actual player performed, lol.
2/13/2010 6:04 PM
seble
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My message that you're quoting was in reference to someone claiming that I said tournament results were the most important component of the decision to leave early. The ticket you're quoting is in reference to why early entries are a part of the game. Being an elite school and having recruiting power doesn't necessarily equal great postseason results.

Let me repeat for emphasis: team success (entire season, not just tournament) is a factor, but ratings are the most important factor. Statistics are not a factor in any way. Mostly because it was encouraging elite schools to bury their young players on the bench to keep them from leaving early.
2/13/2010 9:17 PM
zhawks
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Quote: Originally posted by seble on 2/13/2010My message that you're quoting was in reference to someone claiming that I said tournament results were the most important component of the decision to leave early. The ticket you're quoting is in reference to why early entries are a part of the game. Being an elite school and having recruiting power doesn't necessarily equal great postseason results.

Let me repeat for emphasis: team success (entire season, not just tournament) is a factor, but ratings are the most important factor. Statistics are not a factor in any way. Mostly because it was encouraging elite schools to bury their young players on the bench to keep them from leaving early.

If this is true (and I don't doubt it since you can see the code and i can not) then ratings need to be an even bigger factor then they already are, because it is fairly evident that being a majority of the forumla isn't enough.

I completely agree about stats seble I won't argue that one, although I wish they had some purpose somehow in it but i get how that is a problem.

Thanks again seble for showing up and talking about this - and taking the time to look into this further in the future.
2/13/2010 9:28 PM
colonels19
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Just asking, would/might people be happier if early NBA draft entries were eliminated completely?
2/13/2010 9:43 PM
Fregoe
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Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 2/13/2010Just asking, would/might people be happier if early NBA draft entries were eliminated completely
i can only speak for myself but for me NO I like it. I even like it believe it or not when its my guys
2/13/2010 9:58 PM
fd343ny
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I'd be happier if EE were

1. much less common

2. more accurately foreshadowed in the recruiting process - so many guys get the "likely to leave early" message that it lacks predictive value
2/13/2010 11:14 PM
dalter
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Quote: Originally Posted By seble on 2/13/2010



The ticket you're quoting is in reference to why early entries are a part of the game.

Yes, that's correct, it was in reference to why early entries are part of the game, that is what both zhawks and myself were talking about. That is the exact part of one of my responses that zhawks bolded on Pg. 13 ("[Seble] basically said that they're in place to artificially even out the playing field"), you said "I don't think I would have said that", and then I posted where you did indeed say that.


Let me repeat for emphasis: team success (entire season, not just tournament) is a factor, but ratings are the most important factor.

Agreed with zhawks ... it is quite clear that the rating component of it needs to be jacked up even more.

2/14/2010 12:23 AM
dalter
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Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 2/13/2010Just asking, would/might people be happier if early NBA draft entries were eliminated completely
There are a lot of people who would love to see early entries go the way of the dinosaur, myself included.
2/14/2010 12:24 AM
coach_billyg
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Quote: Originally posted by seble on 2/13/2010My message that you're quoting was in reference to someone claiming that I said tournament results were the most important component of the decision to leave early. The ticket you're quoting is in reference to why early entries are a part of the game. Being an elite school and having recruiting power doesn't necessarily equal great postseason results.

Let me repeat for emphasis: team success (entire season, not just tournament) is a factor, but ratings are the most important factor. Statistics are not a factor in any way. Mostly because it was encouraging elite schools to bury their young players on the bench to keep them from leaving early.

woah seble - stats are not a factor at all? even minutes? it seems to me like it is somewhat ridiculous for a guy to leave who a coach never gets to take advantage of. so like, if a guy does not start and plays say 12 minutes a game, even in the NT, i feel said player should unquestionably be less likely to leave than a 25mpg starter. i understand completely where you are coming from with coaches burying players to get them to stay. but i feel like a coach should at least get to play a player for a single season before he leaves - and i honestly think most people would agree with that sentiment. that is obviously a bit of an extreme case, but i think like most things, it should be a gradient. so a guy who doesn't start all year, playing 16 mpg, maybe *can* leave but i don't think it makes sense for him to leave with same probability as a 25mpg starter. what do you think about that?
2/14/2010 1:38 AM
mamxet
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people were gaming the system in a way that one could say was not good for gameplay - recruit tope 25 kid, give him 3 mins as a FR, 10 min as a SO, manage his distro to keep scoring down ... porkpower was a master at it.....not that it was wrong, I tried too, but I can see a view at WIS that it was not good for the game allow stats that sort of role

I'd like efficiency stats not aggregate stats to matter some if I were the designed - but I would mostly like to know something real about risk of leaving when I recruit the kid, it might tip the balance between my top choice and a kid almost as good who has promised his mom that he will stay four years
2/14/2010 6:35 AM
dalter
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Two excellent points that I wholeheartedly agree with:

billyg: "If a guy does not start and plays say 12 minutes a game, even in the NT, i feel said player should unquestionably be less likely to leave than a 25mpg starter. i understand completely where you are coming from with coaches burying players to get them to stay. but i feel like a coach should at least get to play a player for a single season before he leaves".

mamxet: "I would mostly like to know something real about risk of leaving when I recruit the kid, it might tip the balance between my top choice and a kid almost as good who has promised his mom that he will stay four years".

EDIT: And zhawks point about weighing it more heavily towards ratings. (Even if ratings are currently the most important, the weighting still isn't heavy enough.)

Seble, if you're not gonna get rid of early entries (and I hope you do), there a quite a lot of meaningful ways they can (and shoud) be improved upon.
2/14/2010 9:49 AM
a_in_the_b
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Well. As a balancer, make that player more likely to actually transfer if they get buried. Reduce their chance of Early Entry. Increase their chance of transferring if they are 'buried on the bench. On the other hand, the probability of a player who ISN'T all that complaining and threatening to transfer should definitely be reduced. Make it both so the tactic is less necessary and so that it is less effective.

Admittedly, I haven't had to deal with Early entries yet, so someone might give reasons that reasoning wouldn't work.




2/14/2010 10:02 AM
weirdrash
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Well that is interesting that "statistics do not matter, in the least". That dramatically changes the allocations of shots to some of my Jrs!!
2/14/2010 10:15 AM
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