great call.

we play WIS. we all use this number generating machine every day. thats all belichick did. he was runing the numbers.

Sim this situation 1000 times going for it, and 1000 times punting it. i'll bet a lot of money that going for it results in more Pats victories. isn't that all that matters? That your decisions as a coach result in more victories than losses? The media and Joe Moron on AM radio have WAY too much influence in the sports world these days. and its sad. . .



First off i think people are looking at this way too simplistic. Throwing out random numbers, but its just to get my point across. Say success of a 4th and 2 is 60%. Say success of Payton driving down the field in 2 min is 30%.

In scenario #1 Pats win 60% of the time.
In scenario #2 Pats win 70% of the time.

So scenario #2 it is, right, kick the ball?

Wrong. In scenario #1, the 40% of the time that you fail, you still dont lose.

The offense still has to score in the most difficult section of the field. the red zone. i would venture (probably unpopular) a guess that the odds of Payton scoring from 30 yards out are not much higher than him scoring from 70 yards out.

Payton with for downs to get a first is deadly. 3rd and 7 situations are not normal 3rd and 7's. The playbook is that much more open when an offense knows it has four downs to convert. I think its almost a given that if the Pats punted, the Colts would have gotten to where the Pats turned it over on downs. So they have a minute less of time. But they're in the same spot on the field (30) as when the Pats went for it. And the Pats at least took a shot at an instant win.

Polo, I'm with you for parts of this, I really I am. But this is where you lose me completely:

"I would venture (probably unpopular) a guess that the odds of Payton scoring from 30 yards out are not much higher than him scoring from 70 yards out."

Sorry, but that's just ridiculous.

I've heard a lot of people trying to put a positive spin on this today. They were on the 28-YARD LINE! Kick the ball out of there! This is so simple it's ridiculous. If it were anyone besides Peyton Manning on the opposite sideline, this is a no-brainer. And most coaches not named Belichek are updating their resumes today after a decision like that.

Ridiculous? Is it really? I knew when i was typing it people would think i was crazy. and ****, i just might be.

But its Payton. Its a two minute drill. He has four downs to get 10 yards and inch his way down the field. He's got all control. He's calling the plays. He's reading the defense. He's dictating when the defense can/cant make substitution. He's in full control.

With the defense on its heels, i would say the chance of the Colts going the 40yds from their own 30 to the opponents 30 is over 80%. I think the only major negative is the number of plays run. Going from their own 30, the colts will more than likely run a greater amount of plays than if they started on the opponents 30. That give more chance for a mental breakdown (INT or fumble).

The greatest asset a defense can have against Payton in this situation is a short field. Less room to work. Less options. And in both situations (starting at their 30 or the Pats 30) they still had to go through that red zone. I really think those first 40 yds are pretty meaningless.

And i'll sure as hell put the ball in Brady's hands on 4th and 2 with a chance at ending it with the only sacrifice being those 40 yards.

Quote: Originally posted by newmex on 11/16/2009I've heard a lot of people trying to put a positive spin on this today.  They were on the 28-YARD LINE!  Kick the ball out of there!  This is so simple it's ridiculous.  If it were anyone besides Peyton Manning on the opposite sideline, this is a no-brainer.  And most coaches not named Belichek are updating their resumes today after a decision like that.

it is simple. i rambled on earlier.

but all you have to do is run the situation through your head. if you ran this situation 1000 times with the pats going for it and 1000 times with them kicking it away. Which scenario do the pats win more often?

Weird call but the right decision from a numbers standpoint.

shoulda ran a fake punt. nobody woulda saw that coming.

He doesn't burn the TOs and he has a TO to challenge the ruling and/or stop the clock to give the ball back to Brady.

No one can deny, he F'ed up that part of the game.