Capital Conference in Naismith

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love being in both of these conferences-- the CAC has a .6007 RPI going into the CT finals, and it was actually increasing during the CT, which is really odd. too bad ernesto couldn't get to 14 wins-- we might've gone 9/1 instead of 8/2 NT/PT.

but i still think play in the UCAC is tougher. or maybe my team is just further behind there.

Quote: Originally posted by oldresorter on 12/31/2009many coaches have disagreed with a theory I have, the theory states over the long haul, RPI tends to move toward SOS such that rpi="sos," when taken in the context of an entire conference, your example would be evidence of such, as overall win / loss records are not so hotsome top coaches get themselves in conference like this, and schedule themselves a cupcake non conf, then use their conf mate's SOS's to drop theirs to the 20-50 range by season's end.  As long as their conf mates continue to do the heavy lifting, they get a free ride - often the conf slowly starts ALL scheduling easier, and quickly a conf can go from getting 8 in the dance to 2 or 3.

this is true, but the reason behind it is simple mathematics. once conference play starts, a conf RPI starts its trip widdling down (or up) to .500.

No matter how good (or bad) a conference is, it will go .500 over the 16 game stretch. Their SOS isnt guaranteed to follow the same trend exactly, but more often than not it will be within a tight range of .500.

So everything done during OOC is magnified. Wins and SOS of OOC is key. Through this conference i've been experimenting with SOS for 30 season's now. I have data coming out the wazoo. One of the things i recently figured out is that scheduling cupcakes is not the way to go. I forget the stats exactly, but it was something like this. If a conference all went 10-0 against poor teams (6-20), then all went 8-8 in conference play, their conference RPI before the CT would be around .5400. Not horrible, but only good for a couple NT teams. . . .

Its been a long term goal of this conference to get 10 teams into the NT. Thats unheard of at the DIII level. Not going to happen this season, but we're getting closer and closer.

to LM, billy, and Z

i'm curious why you guys dont think RPI widdles toward SOS as the conference season progresses?

i mean just look at any world before the CT starts. RPIs and SOSs are all near identical...

I mean, SOS is 75% of RPI. So the more games you get in, the more equal they will become, right?

So like i said before, at the end of OOC, you will have huge discrepancies. But once the inbreeding (conference play) starts, all the numbers creep closer to each other.

OR, I dont disagree with you that often, but we have allways disagreed on this one.

simply put, i think you guys are confusing cause and effect.

granted... some teams do the "heavy lifting" in conferences... but that is because they are the better teams, not because they have tougher schedules.

I mean, SOS is 75% of RPI. So the more games you get in, the more equal they will become, right?

here is where misterpee hits the nail on the head...

your confmates constitute a huge part of your SOS. everyone has the same confmates... there ya go.

Quote: Originally Posted By mrpolo09 on 12/31/2009to LM, billy, and Z

i'm curious why you guys dont think RPI widdles toward SOS as the conference season progresses?

i mean just look at any world before the CT starts. RPIs and SOSs are all near identical...

I mean, SOS is 75% of RPI. So the more games you get in, the more equal they will become, right?

So like i said before, at the end of OOC, you will have huge discrepancies. But once the inbreeding (conference play) starts, all the numbers creep closer to each other

Exactly and since a majority of your schedule comes from your in-conference games the better their records the better your RPI will be. You said it yourself that conference will be .500, so that is a wash, so the only way to increase ones conference rpi is to win in OOC.

Minimum you get 17 games against your conference and 10 against non-conference opponents. That is ~ 63% of your SOS.

I see more elite conf action than tiger woods, well you know ....

It goes like clockwork, conferences get near 6 teams with the top 6 SOS, guys go crap, this was way too hard, and let up, then all of a sudden, they are lucky to get 6 in the top 50 SOS, and go crap, we're only getting 3 or 4 in the dance, and the big boys hitch their pants up and take on harder schedules

there is no doubt, if your conf supports it, the best way to win indivicually at this is to play a 300 SOS OOC go 10-0, then watch your SOS drop to 50 or 60 something by NT time.

But when 8 or 10 members of the conferences do such, a couple of upsets here and there, all of a sudden, things aren't so good.

REally don't care what anyone thinks, I schedule like I schedule, I don't even look at my opponents RPI or ratings or anything, I more am observing the ebb and flow of this - when I saw polo's conf, reminded me of the acc in world 1 a couple of seasons ago, I think we had 1 thru 10 SOS, this season, not so much

one more thing, this is not preaching to anyone, i don't think many top coaches spend less time scheduling than me, I hate doing it, wish it could be automated somehow, like tell seble's autonotron I want a 80 SOS OOC, go get it done for me.

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Quote: Originally posted by zhawks on 12/31/2009If every team in your conference was 10-0 in OOC, that would be some pretty good inconf sos... and inconference is a majority of your games... which is a majority of your rpi calculation.

OK, zhawks I think I see the problem here. You think I mean that RPI tends to the static SOS entering conference play. I really mean that RPI and SOS converge after conference play. So I think we agree here.

Just a note: Usually - as in almost always - the ones that have an under thirty RPI are going to be qualified in other ways as well. Just because most of the ones they pick have a low RPI, doesn't mean RPI played a part in picking them. Correlation is not causation.

Quote: Originally Posted By oldresorter on 12/31/2009
I see more elite conf action than tiger woods, well you know ....

It goes like clockwork, conferences get near 6 teams with the top 6 SOS, guys go crap, this was way too hard, and let up, then all of a sudden, they are lucky to get 6 in the top 50 SOS, and go crap, we're only getting 3 or 4 in the dance, and the big boys hitch their pants up and take on harder schedules

there is no doubt, if your conf supports it, the best way to win indivicually at this is to play a 300 SOS OOC go 10-0, then watch your SOS drop to 50 or 60 something by NT time.

But when 8 or 10 members of the conferences do such, a couple of upsets here and there, all of a sudden, things aren't so good.

REally don't care what anyone thinks, I schedule like I schedule, I don't even look at my opponents RPI or ratings or anything, I more am observing the ebb and flow of this - when I saw polo's conf, reminded me of the acc in world 1 a couple of seasons ago, I think we had 1 thru 10 SOS, this season, not so much

this is where the confusion is stemming from OR. This is not a great strategy. at all.

First, you are correct that it will result in 50 to 60 SOSs. But that doesn't neccessarily mean NT's. This "conference" strategy is good for the select couple coaches that will win 12+ games. They will be NT bound. But as far as the conference as a whole, it hurts.

I ran the numbers once. This is a rough guestimate, i dont recall exaclty. but it was something like if all the coaches in a conference scheduled cupcakes (teams that ended up 5-21), their conference RPI would be around .5400. Decent, but only good for a few NT teams... This was assuming your OOWP was .500 and their OOWP was .500.