Quote: Originally posted by colonels19 on 1/05/2010itself....regular, logical results...just because extreme random games/outliers like this happen, doesn't mean that they are justified. Real life doesn't have concrete ratings that it bases itself off of, therefore its much more random and unpredictable for a myriad of reasons that the sim doesn't, can't, and shouldn't factor.
there are what, five thousand games simmed a day? and each has a large number of randoms involved in the simulation. the outcome of 5,000 sims of a single game is logically going to follow a bell curve. some are going to be outliers, surly you are not claiming that should not be the case?
suppose 1% on each side fall out of the 20 point mark from the expectation (surly not accurate, but probably not a terrible estimate either). that would be 50 times a day both ways, 100 total.
if you consider roughly half of the games are against an opponent you will play twice, there are about 2,500 of those a day. roughly 50 will fall in that 1%, and there is then a 1% chance the other game will go 20 points the either way. thats about half an instance per day (of the event that you will see a game between two teams who play twice where the spread of the two differentials is 40 or more). that is ignoring hca but hca only makes the event more likely.
all in all, i would say that is not that rare of an event. moreover, i gave reasons why it is significantly less surprising in the case presented than average. i don't think any conclusions about the randomness in the game, nor its brokenness, are justified based on this game. it simply is unexceptional.