Revaluating HR Adjustment - From Admin Topic

bighead34
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Quote: Originally posted by The__Kid on 1/15/2010miket23 - check my worlds' chat.  It's obvious that bighead34 isn't exactly a good detective.

upon further inspection this is most definitely true...again sorry for the confusion
1/15/2010 11:01 PM
shobob
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1/15/2010 11:08 PM
tecwrg
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People are getting a little nuts and a bit irresponsible about trying to out aliases these days.

I've been helping a n00b through the mentor program. He made a n00b mistake and inadvertantly released somebody when he meant to waive him. Another owner jumped all over him, accused him of being an alias and in general has been making his life miserable this week.

The n00b came back to me and asked WTF was going on? I explained the alias problem to him (he had no clue), how it can be used for cheating, and that some people can be very touchy about it. Justifiably so, if it's a legitimate concern. From what I read in the WC in the world in question, there really was no basis for it. The vet jumped all over a comment the n00b made about the "value" of the player in question, saying that there's no way a n00b would understand or talk about value. Wouldn't let up. My advice to him was if the problem persists to look for a new world to play in.

FYI . . . this was in a public world. But still, if you're going to start throwing alias accusations around, have at least the slightest bit of proof before you do it.
1/16/2010 7:02 AM
MikeT23
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Thanks, dad.

Of course, I'm sure you know the guy in question from the real world so you're 100% positive that he's a n00b. I'm tempted, just to prove a point, to create another username and ask you to be my mentor.

Anyway, I don't care if t_k is an alias. As I said, he knew something from a world chat in a world he's not in. When asked why he was reading the WC, he acted elusive. Seemed a little suspicious and I half-jokingly tossed out two words and a question mark. Sadly, that has taken over this thread. I'd have just ignored me.
1/16/2010 7:14 AM
tecwrg
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Quote: Originally Posted By bighead34 on 1/15/2010it was just a question...i found it strange is all...my detective work may have been shoddy, but i did do a cursory check of The__Kid's worlds WC and didn't notice it mentioned...i don't mean to cast aspersions and i am glad someone made this information public...sorry if i offended anyon
TZ posted his statement in Clemens* yesterday afternoon at around 4:30pm. domi made reference to it around an hour later in Cobbfather. The_kid plays in Cobbfather. That's where he saw it.
1/16/2010 7:29 AM
MikeT23
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I hope TZ REALLY looks around before they start tweaking too much. I just posted some numbers in my thread about MG's end of season stats. It's still possible for an entire world to post some irregular power numbers.
1/16/2010 7:45 AM
MikeT23
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Just guessing but I imagine that only a handful of worlds played a full season under this engine. Seems like they'd want more data before re-tweaking. Give owners time to adjust before adjusting the engine again.
1/16/2010 7:47 AM
travisg
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Regardless, I'm glad they're looking into it. We looked at some of the top hitters at the recent conclusion of Moneyball, and many of them had down years.

That's entirely possible, of course, but it does seem unlikely that a handful of players with 75-95 hitting ratings across the board would all see their OPS drop by 100 points in the same season. What we determined was that most of the "lost" HR had turned into singles and flyouts.
1/16/2010 7:49 AM
travisg
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Here's bajoraa's analysis: "In the Moneyball AL, SLG ranged from .353 to.443 with an average of .407. In the MLB AL last year, SLG ranged from .397-.478 with an average of .428. THe Moneyball NL is about .020 short of its MLB counterpart, too."

It's entirely possible that this is just an aberration, but anecdotally, it "feels" like HR numbers are down more than they should be.
1/16/2010 7:51 AM
tecwrg
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Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 1/16/2010Just guessing but I imagine that only a handful of worlds played a full season under this engine. Seems like they'd want more data before re-tweaking. Give owners time to adjust before adjusting the engine again
They do have their all-world overview stats that are updated on a weekly basis. That's probably what they're going to base their decisions on rather than the results of individual worlds.

But I agree . . . they need to think this out carefully.
1/16/2010 7:53 AM
MikeT23
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I posted the team data for 5 worlds that ran full seasons under the engine. I think team data is far more indicative of the results than individual player performance. WifS isn't far off from what I've seen.
1/16/2010 7:55 AM
MikeT23
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Quote: Originally Posted By tecwrg on 1/16/2010
Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 1/16/2010
Just guessing but I imagine that only a handful of worlds played a full season under this engine. Seems like they'd want more data before re-tweaking. Give owners time to adjust before adjusting the engine again.
They do have their all-world overview stats that are updated on a weekly basis. That's probably what they're going to base their decisions on rather than the results of individual worlds.

But I agree . . . they need to think this out carefully.



I'm assuming that isn't based upon completed seasons. As you know, things change when fatigue/injury/promotions/etc. set in as the seasons wind down.
1/16/2010 7:57 AM
jvford
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Quote: Originally posted by travisg on 1/16/2010Regardless, I'm glad they're looking into it. We looked at some of the top hitters at the recent conclusion of Moneyball, and many of them had down years.

That's entirely possible, of course, but it does seem unlikely that a handful of players with 75-95 hitting ratings across the board would all see their OPS drop by 100 points in the same season. What we determined was that most of the "lost" HR had turned into singles and flyouts.

My data (of the top power hitters) showed that HRs became singles, not flyouts. And that was consistent with world totals and the weekly snapshot from all worlds.
1/16/2010 8:03 AM
MikeT23
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Correct. Batting average has remained constant as has doubles/triples.
1/16/2010 8:04 AM
jvford
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1/16/2010 8:06 AM
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