i use motion and triangle as my example because those are the 2 offenses i know best, by far. my feeling is flex is its own beast, but i am much less confident with it, so maybe you are right. anyway, some of my best motion teams had extremely talented offensive players in large quantities, and i am very confident those teams would have had more than a 5% decrease in total chance of winning the national championship with triangle (meaning if they were 25%, then it would drop to 20%, not ~24%). same goes with some of the d2 triangle teams i've had that have had a couple really exceptional offensive players who carried pretty much of the load. i would honestly think some of those teams would have had more than a 10% decrease in total chance of winning the NT, but i suppose i could believe it was in the 5-10% range. to me, that is huge. i live in the world of getting every last drop, those single percentage points and tenths of percents, but to me, offensive type is not one of those things.