Quote: Originally posted by ArlenWilliam on 3/18/2010Modeling the gradual changes of real MLB would be wonderful.
i STRONGLY disagree with this. no one knew in 1920 that offensive stats were about to explode. no one knew in 1939 that they were about to be dampened. sometimes there are logical explanations for swings in stats, such as the mound being raised in 1968, or the balls being tightly wound in 1987, and sometimes there aren't: swings occur because of shifts in talent or strategy that could not have been predicted.
if the homer rates rise in HBD because managers sacrifice defense for power, or because the draft and INT pool happened to produce fewer quality pitchers, or because a world had managers that preferred power to speed/contact, then so be it. what would most likely happen in some of these situations is that some teams would realize that speed/contact and defensive players are undervalued, would pursue those players, and would be successful with them, as the teams could acquire those players cheaply and have resources to invest elsewhere. eventually, this strategy would catch on, and the pendulum would swing.
if, instead, WIS revised the engine to mirror HR rates in MLB every season, we'd have two major problems. first, we'd be ignoring the natural tendencies and swings in given worlds (or across worlds) that make the game interesting. second, we'd be subject to a changing MLB environment in a harmful and artificial way.
i agree that the engine should try to mirror MLB, but i say that the mirroring should include the ability for these ecological changes in statistics, and should NOT focus on aligning stats on a season-to-season basis. furthermore, that mirroring should assume "correct" usage of players, not the actual usage in HBD. if i play nine 90-power players, i should hit a lot more HRs, and my opponents probably should too (as i couldn't get great defense at every position with a 90+ power guy). but if i'm playing a 50 range guy at 2B, that's my choice, and may be beneficial.
note that this also mirrors MLB, in that players are used in different ways. the first usage of a -handed specialist was probably considered an "incorrect" usage of a player, but then the game evolved, and there was also an impact to statistics. goose gossage and rollie fingers were used in ways that were revolutionary, as were maury wills and rickey henderson. if a henderson-like talent were to appear in MLB, he might change the nature of stats for a decade, as henderson did in the 1980s.
but this would NOT be a reason to change the engine. it's part of the natural evolution of the game, and preventing HBD from being able to experience those natural swings-- and instead tweaking the engine to maintain a consistent outcome, irrespective of talent and usage-- detracts from the game in a major way.