Quote: Originally Posted By ccmathman on 4/18/201041 point swing here
Tied at halftime
Won by 4

Quote: Originally posted by dogget on 4/18/2010This game was a 3pt spread. For one team to be leading by 13 at the half means that the ratings/performance schedule had a significant deviation imposed upon it. (Again, not because one team got "hot", because there is no such thing in HD; and not because one team got "cold", because there's no such thing in HD.)

The ratings-yields-performance model endured an even greater, 22pt, deviation in the second half. (Not because some guys got "hot".....)

Then there was the peculiar(?) offensive rebounding to points ratio thingy. (Was that a third disparate deviation?)

So, just where was the "normal" part of that game? You know, the ratings yield performance part.

Or does HD really just stand for the proposition that two deviations make no deviation, i.e., two wrongs make a right.

Quote: Originally posted by cthomas22255 on 4/18/2010

But the improbable happens.

Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 4/18/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By ccmathman on 4/18/2010
41 point swing here
Tied at halftime
Won by 41

Wow, no offense switch by Barry and no defense switch by Ohio Valley and Barry goes from 15-24 from the field in the first half to 3-18 in the second

Quote: Originally Posted By doomey on 4/18/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 4/18/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By ccmathman on 4/18/2010
41 point swing here
Tied at halftime
Won by 41

Wow, no offense switch by Barry and no defense switch by Ohio Valley and Barry goes from 15-24 from the field in the first half to 3-18 in the second.

Read the bpb before you post. Barry went uptempo shortly into the first half I just looked at the PBP...it says this where, pray tell? Ohhhhh you meant the second half and PBP for that matter. 8 minutes into the half is shortly into the half to you? WOW...talk about going out of your way to make an argument...and their shooting went way down (and they were travelling all over the place). Barry doesn't have the shooters to go uptempo against Ohio Valley, whose top 5 are quite a bit better than Barry's.

Quote: Originally Posted By cthomas22255 on 4/18/2010
But I think you're forgetting some of your Stats 101. First of all, measurement matters. Why are you picking halftime like there's something magical about it? Why not 30 minutes , or 15 minutes? You were the one that was suggesting that looking at 2-20 minute halves in the same game was somehow insufficient...you wanted to bring in and mention other games/factors that had nothing to do with said game, when you brought up the Utah/Kentucky example. I don't think we're the ones with a screw loose...

Secondly, all events are probabilistic in nature. "Real life" or not, any time a person takes a shot there is a probability of hitting & missing. If you flip a fair coin 100 times, very rarely are you going to have 50 heads. The problem with colonels is that he looks at a result of only 20 heads and says "that shouldn't happen!" when probabilistically it would happen more than he thinks. I find it funny how you dumb the game down to flipping a coin where only two outcomes can come up....me thinks the sim is just a tad more complicated than that........but allow the ignorant statistician to tell me otherwise.....

There's the old trick stat professors pull on the first day of class. The professor divides the class into two groups. The first group of students are told to flip a coin and write down the heads and tails observed. The second group is told to create their own list of random heads and tails. The professor leaves the room and makes a wager-- "if I can't tell which one is the one invented by students, you'll all get an A for the semester." Big deal, what does this have to do with HD? Again suggesting that HD is as simple as "heads and tails" is rather ridiculous, no?

The professor always wins his wager. The actual random series--the actual coin flips -- always has a lot more patterns in it and, say, 10 straight heads, than the student-invented list. Are you done yet?

You guys seem to forget that a lot in playing this game. Right, because the sim engine just flips coins to determine what happens... The RNG is simply following a bell curve. You don't know this per se. Programming it to do otherwise situationally would be a lot harder.

Quote: Originally Posted By dalter on 4/18/2010
The fact that you are totally unable to grasp cthomas' coin flip examples is unreal.

He's not saying that the sim is as simple as a coinflip He was comparing the 2, was he not?, he's trying to give you a lesson in stats and probability 101. Which was totally lost on you. That the WIS RNG should follow the bell curve.....oooooooooooooooo....life changing information. If they used True randomness, all of this is moot. Moreover, show me that WIS' RNG follows that bell curve, because you can't prove that it does, and I can't prove that it doesn't...you want to assume that it does for whatever reasons you have, fine, but they're unfounded and I hope you understand that. As always, if I thought WIS randomness, etc. worked correctly, the same way all the time, we aren't even talking about this...that's what you still don't get....GOOD LORD.....

Good lord.

Quote: Originally Posted By a_in_the_b on 4/18/2010Looking at the play by play, it looks like Barry's problems actually started about fifteen minutes into the first half.