exactly 22.3% of the time out of how many trials? I'm sure there's a way to find it in general but I need to know the number of trials in order for me to be able to do it. And partial trials can't really happen either...

31.

I'm approximating, but if you round it to 7 out of 31(Which is as close as you come)

Pretty sure it will be much lower than most people think.

Hmm well now that I actually did the calculations for that last one I realize I did the other ones wrong. What I gave you was the probability that the event would happen the first 29 times and fail the last three. You would need to take into account all of the different combinations of ways that you could reach 29 successes. I'm pretty sure I've learned that, but I've been out of school for 2 weeks and want to stay as far away from it for as long as I can before college.

Quote: Originally posted by watch_this on 5/30/2010This is actually high school AP Statistics, which I took this year. If you want the chance that it happens exactly 29 times out of 31 it would be ((.223)^29)*((.777)^2) but if you want the probability that it happens 29 times or more it would be ((.223)^29)*((.777)^2)+((.223)^30)*((.777)^1)+((.223)^31). I would solve it for you but I don't have my graphing calculator with me.

((.223)^29)*((.777)^2) only gives the probability of one exact ordering of 29 successes in 31 trials. For the probability that X equals 29 you need to multiply that by the number of ways you can have 29 successes in 31 trials (465).

Sorry watch_this, I didn't see that you had already corrected yourself. If you're interested in how to compute the number of ways to get 29 successes in 31 trials it's 31!/(29!*2!).

The probability of exactly 7 successes in this case is .1691

If something is likely to happen less than 1 out of 4 times and it actually happens better than 9 out of 10 times something is way off. Either the expected result (22.3%) is incorrect or the conditions that produced the result (93.55%) were changed.

But for example, the changed conditions could include such things as coaching settings. Once you change the settings, you change the probabilities.

Quote: Originally Posted By metsmax on 5/30/2010its like a coin toss, it either happens or it doesnt, eh

At the base level of probability...pretty much lol...its the argument I'm making...I'll either run with my number(s) or I won't. The last thing I want/need to do is confuse more people lol

And guys, fwiw, this is an OFF TOPIC thread, thus it doesn't necessarily pertain to HD...it will show itself soon enough, trust me. Thank you for all of the posts.