Not only do I tinker with the distribution almost daily, but I also alter my lineup based on production. My goal is to have the best combination possible when the tournament starts.

I've benched a 2-year senior starter because his sophomore backup was ourperforming him, even though the senior had better ratings. Sometimes the senior earns his spot back but not always.

I have a RS Sr in DII with 98 PER, 99 BH and 100 PA 823 overall (http://whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=1385086)

and he may graduate without ever making first team all conference. He has been great, but definitely not living up to his ratings. With a 50 distro against a SIM team he had 18 points.

Quote: Originally Posted By kelby_03 on 5/31/2010maybe you're just a terrible coach

bite me

I'm fairly new with HD, but if I were playing oldave's team, I would be more likely to double team Richards. This would give him less opportunities to score and when he did try to score, more resistance. It seems simple to me, not an anomaly. Just MHO.

nice constraint OD....

just once all 0's for 1 game OD!

Quote: Originally posted by oldave on 5/31/2010okay, here is what i am getting at:if you had two guysPlayer A appears to be better payer according to ratings,etcPlayerB, despite poorer ratings, has consistently shot the ball better.big game coming... who gets more distro?PlayerA?  because he is clearly superior in the engine's eyes and the fact that he has shot poorly in the past only makes you think that he will shoot great in the future because if the sample size is big enough, he will reach his "norm"?PlayerB?  becuase stats dont lie?or just set them all at zero?  

One, classic Gambler's Fallacy trap. Just because a coin has flipped Tails eight times in a row doesn't mean Heads is 'due'.

Two, you haven't done enough intel to answer the question. Substitution patterns make it hard to tell who Player B is matched up against, but you can look at Player A's matchups and see who he's been facing in the opposition starters.

Player A may be superior to Player B, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's been superior to all the Player C, D and E's he's been facing. Or Player F, who he's facing tomorrow.

Quote: Originally Posted By alblack56 on 5/31/2010
Not only do I tinker with the distribution almost daily, but I also alter my lineup based on production. My goal is to have the best combination possible when the tournament starts.

I've benched a 2-year senior starter because his sophomore backup was ourperforming him, even though the senior had better ratings. Sometimes the senior earns his spot back but not always.



It strikes me that Al's comments impute certain features to the game that I'm not sure are present, such as:

the future resembles the past; there is some (even brief) continuity, or institutional memory, to the unfolding of the game; players can get 'hot' or 'be in the zone' or (remember this one?) their biorhythms are optimal for some period of time, including successive or multiple games under Al's comments. Sadly, HD officially, repeatedly,adamantly, and unequivocally refutes all of those possibilities.

The next shot a player takes bears no relationship to, or in no way is informed by, the last shot, the last game, or the last milennium. N'est pas?

Obviously we all anthropomorphize the data pools that are our 'players.' But to keep an eye on a benched upperclassman to see if he has the heart, grit, determination, and pride to turn his game around and regain his starting position, is, I believe, not on the menu.

Very few coaches put in more time, maintain more of a record, or deserve more respect for his appreciation and contributions to HD than archivist, Brother Al.

But if each play is an island, then the future does not resemble the past and the patterns necessary for such analysis just aren't there.

Not on the menu.

Jeez, did I shut this down?

Quote: Originally Posted By mtngoats on 6/01/2010nice constraint OD...

thank for noticing, goatdude.

i had to bite my lip so hard i drew blood. but at the end of the day, i decided that maybe this time i should just let it go. no harm, no foul.

Quote: Originally Posted By mtngoats on 6/01/2010just once all 0's for 1 game OD

okay, okay.

at Gtown, Thursday June3 AMgame

I have about a 2% chance of winning that one anyway, so, why not?

hopefully i will remember. maybe you can remind me.



and , sulldude, if you are lurking here, don't get too cocky... this might be just a trap and i might give 90dist to one player. you never know.

Quote: Originally Posted By dogget on 6/01/2010Jeez, did I shut this down?

just temporarily , dog.

your stuff was so deep it took us a while to soak it in and really understand it.

but it was good stuff.

Although methinks that perhaps you have distilled all the data and numbers in such a clinical way that you may have missed the spiritual side of HD, where coaches and players form mystically personal bonds that, while illogical and even unreasonable, allow us to reach a higher plane of conciousness and bond in a way that the number-crunchers and naysayers will never know.

is that on the menu?

Quote: Originally posted by oldave on 5/31/2010i have allways been intriged by underperormers and overacheivers in HD.you know what i mean... the senior SG who is basically maxed out across the board and great IQs, yet he is shooting 31%.or the occasional freshman that shoots 55% despite ratings worse than nearly all of his teammates and an IQ that is certainly not helping his cause.In some cases it just seems that there MUST be some hidden variables,  but admin has repeatedly and forcefully said "no".hmm...

This is the very reason I love this game. The behind the scenes stuff. I'm starting a SF over a SF that won national frosh of the year since the middle of last season simply because he makes my team better. The other SF blows him away in core ratings and scores at will, but the other has the better overall rating and makes everyone around him better.

The other thing I notice, which I think you can get from evals is if a player plays better if he starts vs. if the player could care less if he starts or not.

SPD still plays a huge factor in shooting from the PE. That's often overlooked.

done rambling...

Quote: Originally Posted By oldave on 6/02/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By dogget on 6/01/2010
Jeez, did I shut this down?

just temporarily , dog.

your stuff was so deep it took us a while to soak it in and really understand it.

but it was good stuff.

Although methinks that perhaps you have distilled all the data and numbers in such a clinical way that you may have missed the spiritual side of HD, where coaches and players form mystically personal bonds that, while illogical and even unreasonable, allow us to reach a higher plane of conciousness and bond in a way that the number-crunchers and naysayers will never know.

is that on the menu?

Actually, that is one of the main reasons I've hung around long enough to be in the Hall of Hanging Around. I even over-paid in the last cycle in one world for a kid who has my name!

((I've also called a zillion (unofficial) time outs to scold or cajole my players or to call a specific play on a key possession.))

I'd argue that few HD coaches get to a "higher" plane of consciousness than yours truly.

So, despite my feelings on how the game actually unfolds, the spiritual side is on the menu.

Lunch and dinner!

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