Ayone else agree with me? Topic

I think Gus Lennon is a ***** and was just simply scared.
1/3/2011 9:07 PM
Posted by isack24 on 1/3/2011 8:47:00 PM (view original):
3.  But again, I think it's a pretty textbook go on contact with the infield at normal depth, especially if it's not right at the 3B, which it clearly wasn't.

I'd honestly be willing to concede it if someone could find one play in the history of baseball where a SS came home from normal depth.
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/2006/B06090NYA2006.htm

Top of the 6th inning.  Runner on third, one out.  Nick Swisher grounds to SS.  Runner holds at third.
1/3/2011 9:32 PM
Runner stumbles.

Short hop to the shortstop stalls runner.

Runner holds because he's scoring on the hit with 2 out anyway.  


24 is slow.   54 is neither a good or confident baserunner.     He's not running on contact.    Plenty of reasons he doesn't score.  Scoring is not a gimme. 

I played baseball about 20 years and softball for about 25.   So I've played and understand the game.   
1/3/2011 9:35 PM
Furthermore, if you've every played ball, you've heard "Your run doesn't count.  Be sure" when you've been on base.   It means "If you're not 100% certain you're going to score, keep your *** on base because we need more than you to score."
1/3/2011 9:44 PM
Sounds like Isaac doesn't really understand baseball. You make it sound like the SS is playing in left field. Thats not the case. if the guys speed was 84 I could see your argument. But with a slow baserunner, who did not get a good jump (54 BR), unless its a single he is not going to score.
1/3/2011 10:19 PM

OK, Mike wins.

Short hop that freezes the runner.  That's the only scenario (I already said on a play where the runner doesn't stumble - I'm assuming there's no stumble rating).

Anyone who thinks that a regular ground ball to the SS at normal depth will hold a runner at 3B is simply wrong.  But Mike presented a legit counterpoint, and I have no problem admitting when I'm wrong. 

I doubt that really happened in my HBD game, but that's not really the point.  I was wrong based on the scenario Mike presented.

1/3/2011 10:41 PM
We all win, you don't know jack.

I bet there are hundreds and hundreds who have never scored from 3rd, less than 2 outs with the infield back. What are you, 7 -- star of your tee ball team?
1/4/2011 12:36 AM
Posted by mitchrapp on 1/4/2011 12:37:00 AM (view original):
We all win, you don't know jack.

I bet there are hundreds and hundreds who have never scored from 3rd, less than 2 outs with the infield back. What are you, 7 -- star of your tee ball team?
Really?  Hundreds?  In the history of baseball?  I guess that proves your point.

I doubt it's even close if we're talking about actual groundballs.  Althought, you could be right, it's probably happened to Carlos Gomez about five times in the past two years.  But that's because his baserunning IQ would be 1, not because that's how you play baseball.

I don't have much of a need to throw out credentials, but I feel confident saying that I played at a higher level than a vast majority of people here.  Obviously there will be some legit pros who played at a higher level, but I did make it slightly above tee ball. 

I also played SS.  Wasn't much with the glove, but did have a pro-caliber arm.  Here's my problem with your take: any halfway decent baseball player gets at least a ten-fifteen foot secondary lead with no one playing him close at third.  If I'm at SS, even with a pretty strong arm, and someone hits me a groundball, I can attempt to make the 120 to 140-foot throw, hope that it's on target, and hope the catcher applies the tag, all before the runner gets across the plate, just to keep it a four-run game instead of three late in the game...or...I can make the easy throw, clear the bases with two outs, and keep my team up three with very little chance of a big inning.

As a player, I take the latter option every time, and I would bet every coach in the world would, too.

So, knowing that the SS is almost certainly going to first, why in the world would the runner hold at third?  Stupidity, I suppose.  But any non-super idiot is going on a ball to the middle infield and will never be challenged.
1/4/2011 1:12 AM
Forget real baseball, I've played hundreds of games on Baseball Stars for the NES!
1/4/2011 2:12 AM
If you start a thread asking whether others agree with you, why say anyone who disagrees is clearly an idiot who knows nothing about baseball? If you're really asking whether others agree, the answer clearly is no. The notion that no SS has never, ever gone home from normal depth in such a situation is absurd. Surely it's possible to envision Elvis Andrus seeing Jason Varitek take off from third on a hard grounder and throwing him out at the plate by 20 feet, even if the plan was to concede the run. Does the runner score 95-99% of the time? Could be. But a slow player who is a mediocre base-runner is a good candidate for the 1-5% that don't go home when the priority is avoiding outs.
1/4/2011 3:27 AM
Seeing that there have been around 180,000 MLB games played over the past 110 years, it's pretty funny that he was making a DEFINITIVE claim that something NEVER HAPPENED ONCE.

I'd be pretty comfortable with the hundreds claim myself.
1/4/2011 6:02 AM

@josh: yeah, I was being a dick, and I'm sorry about that.  The question was more to the person who told me that the runner would be "tied to third base," which is about the opposite of the truth with the third baseman playing back, but it's not the point.  I was cranky when I asked the question, and was looking for something like Mike's post right away.  I shouldn't have been an ***.

@josh and tec: Alright, I know it's happened in the history of baseball where someone has stayed at third.  It could be because of teh scenarios that Mike presented, it could be low baseball IQ, or it could be unexplainable.  So, yes, I already condeded Mike's point, and I'm willing to concede that stupidity breed exceptions, but let me ask you guys this once again: have you ever actually seen a SS come home from normal depth (which is basically on or a step in from the outfield grass for whoever is acting like ML SSs play halfway between the infield and outfield grass)?  At some point, some fat man has gone on a play like this, and I'm wondering if anyone has ever seen a SS go home.  I would bet not, but I'll believe you if you can tell me you affirmatively remember that you have. 

Although none of that really changes the fact that the runner should go every time.  If he's thrown out, so be it, that was just a stupid risk the SS was willing to take.

1/4/2011 6:36 AM
Although you've already said I'm right, I still have to disagree.   I don't think the runner should go every time.  His run is not important in a 4 run game.   He's scoring on a hit from 3rd with two outs.   Getting thrown out at the plate because the SS was willing to take a risk is a stupid play. 

Looking at my 4 teams, I have 6 with speed at/under 24.    So, roughly, a guy with 24 speed is in the lower 12% of a world.

I'd buy taking third on a GB to 2B with one out as a "go every time" situation.    If you get to third with 2 out, you can score on a passed ball.  If you're already at third, your chances of scoring doesn't change when the out count goes from one to two.
1/4/2011 6:51 AM
" His run is not important in a 4 run game."

Which is exactly why the SS will let him score instead of opening the door for a big inning.

"If you're already at third, your chances of scoring doesn't change when the out count goes from one to two."

That's not true.  The odds are significantly lower that a run will score from third with two outs than with one (groundballs and sac flies score runs all the time).  I'll find the stats for you, but that's wrong.
1/4/2011 8:04 AM
http://www.tangotiger.net/runscreated.html

At the bottom:

Odds of scoring from third with one out: 68%

Odds of scoring from third with two outs: 29%
1/4/2011 8:08 AM
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Ayone else agree with me? Topic

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