Temporary Ratings Changes Topic

dwoolery
Posts: 320 (0)
Hall of Famer
2 148
Prospect
That's OK, I like poker, and despite the implication can usually hold my own.

Thanks for pasting that, but i won't ignore my experiences because of these references. The developers have been cryptic with their answers in the past and just because i can't identify the source doesn't mean i'll disregard what works. I don't have to know how electricity works to learn to stop touching a hot wire after i jolt myself a couple times.
1/28/2011 3:53 PM
dwoolery
Posts: 320 (0)
Hall of Famer
2 148
Prospect
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/28/2011 3:48:00 PM (view original):
Are you hitting on chuck's boy?  
If that's the case, i'll have to politely decline - i've already promised myself to iain if he rolls over for me in the MB world series.
1/28/2011 3:56 PM
iain
Posts: 1864 (0)
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35 1 1 18 1 279
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Are you trying to make me throw Game 6?

1/28/2011 4:00 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
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87 1 47 1 189
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FWIW, zbrent and I have had this discussion several times.

I'm not content to let a 90 bat third and hit .210 when I have an 80 hitting 7th while batting .320.   I'm not starting the 80 over the 90 but I'm not going to keep giving up outs in the 3 hole when I'm seeing better results elsewhere.  He, obviously, disagrees.
1/28/2011 4:00 PM
iain
Posts: 1864 (0)
Hall of Famer
35 1 1 18 1 279
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Also, I think the "hot hand" comes from our less than 100% understanding of the ratings and their interaction.

If a guy consistently over/underperforms your expectations of his ratings, perhaps your expectations are what needs to be adjusted.
1/28/2011 4:02 PM
orrdc
Posts: 146 (0)
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101 41
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Posted by MikeT23 on 1/28/2011 4:00:00 PM (view original):
FWIW, zbrent and I have had this discussion several times.

I'm not content to let a 90 bat third and hit .210 when I have an 80 hitting 7th while batting .320.   I'm not starting the 80 over the 90 but I'm not going to keep giving up outs in the 3 hole when I'm seeing better results elsewhere.  He, obviously, disagrees.
I feel the same way, in this case I see better than I read, so I can read a guy should kill the ball all day long, but when I see that he's hitting .240 with marginal power its time for a change
1/28/2011 4:47 PM
mhulshult
Posts: 982 (0)
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5 3 63
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Basically one side says...

"It's a computer program, just numbers.  90 is better than 80.  Regardless of what has happened, I have a better chance next game with the 90 than an 80."

The other side is what you mentioned...

"My 80 is hitting .330, my 90 is hitting .250.  The best indication of the near future is the most recent past, so I'm going with the 80 for now."

Take your pick.
1/28/2011 4:53 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
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87 1 47 1 189
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While I agree that it is just numbers, I can't sit on my thumbs and lose games while my stud hits .210.   I have to move him down. 

Einstein's definition of insanity:  Doing the same thing over and over while expecting a different result.
HBD translation:  Leaving that 90 in the three hole while he hits .210 while the 80 in the seven hole bats .320.

1/28/2011 5:03 PM
dwoolery
Posts: 320 (0)
Hall of Famer
2 148
Prospect
Posted by iain on 1/28/2011 4:00:00 PM (view original):

Are you trying to make me throw Game 6?

I haven't won enough of these things to be picky about how i win them. Having said that, based on what we've seen so far, i think game 7, extra innings is a foregone conclusion.
1/28/2011 5:31 PM
iain
Posts: 1864 (0)
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35 1 1 18 1 279
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Posted by mhulshult on 1/28/2011 4:53:00 PM (view original):
Basically one side says...

"It's a computer program, just numbers.  90 is better than 80.  Regardless of what has happened, I have a better chance next game with the 90 than an 80."

The other side is what you mentioned...

"My 80 is hitting .330, my 90 is hitting .250.  The best indication of the near future is the most recent past, so I'm going with the 80 for now."

Take your pick.
I like to think I'm in the middle.  Until I have a proven track record from both, I'm hesitant to be quite so sure that the 90 is tangibly better than the 80.

I might be using the wrong number system, after all!
1/28/2011 5:47 PM
zbrent716
Posts: 1970 (0)
Hall of Famer
90 1 58 77
Prospect
Posted by iain on 1/28/2011 5:47:00 PM (view original):
Posted by mhulshult on 1/28/2011 4:53:00 PM (view original):
Basically one side says...

"It's a computer program, just numbers.  90 is better than 80.  Regardless of what has happened, I have a better chance next game with the 90 than an 80."

The other side is what you mentioned...

"My 80 is hitting .330, my 90 is hitting .250.  The best indication of the near future is the most recent past, so I'm going with the 80 for now."

Take your pick.
I like to think I'm in the middle.  Until I have a proven track record from both, I'm hesitant to be quite so sure that the 90 is tangibly better than the 80.

I might be using the wrong number system, after all!
And this is really where Mike and I differ - 

When the 90 is better is every rating category, he hits 3 for me over the 80 who is lesser in every rating category. 

When the ratings are *different* that's when I examine my expectations to see whether something is being misread.

But there's no way to read 90-90-90-90-90 as less than 80-80-80-80-80 (other ratings equal), so I'm playing the math because - yes- these aren't real people; they are just a collection of numbers..
1/28/2011 5:50 PM
tecwrg
Posts: 18997 (0)
Hall of Famer
4 1 166 32 129
Prospect
Much like Mike, I set my lineups and batting order by ratings for the first part of the season, and by stats (actually, split stats) for the second.  I give the ratings longer to set in, so I don't do the switch until the All-Star break.  So it's a 91/71 split of the season.

I'll check and adjust my lineups daily during the second half of the season.  If a weak ratings guy has a hot bat, i.e. good stats, even with a limited number of PA's, I'll still give him a chance to play himself out of the lineup.  If he has a small number of PA's and starts to slump, he'll play himself out quickly enough.   Conversely, a high ratings guy with poor stats may get bumped down in the order until he produces enough to gradually work his way up.
1/28/2011 5:57 PM
jonas1102
Posts: 1016 (0)
Hall of Famer
35 1 24 43 11
Rookie
Posted by 98greenc5 on 1/28/2011 2:53:00 PM (view original):
The only one I believe in slightly (just from random oobservation which is notoriously unreliable) is that I think there could be a behind-the-scenes trigger where a guy sometimes gets "hurt" (ratings wise) before his injury shows up

For example, a good picher will have a handful of bad starts, then he shows up with a shoulder injury for 60 days. Almost like he got hurt a while ago, but only got "diagnosed" with the injury after a few bad starts. Again, it might be that I only "notice" this pattern when it happens, and discount all the times a pitcher is lights out before getting the same injury. And obviously that wouldn't apply to "in-game" injuries like injuries while fielding or running or whatnot.

That is my only ratings conspiracy theory
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: David Moore

You know I had never even considered an idea like this until you mentioned it.  But Moore just went down with a 111 day labrum tear, so I started looking into his stats.

First 20 games:  10-5, 2.38 ERA, 1.01 WHIP
Last 7 games:       0-3, 5.68 ERA, 1.56 WHIP

Like you, it's probably just a pattern I noticed after it happened, but it is interesting anyway and I wonder if there could be more situations like this that usually go unnoticed.
1/31/2011 12:28 PM
kcden
Posts: 1635 (0)
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1 58 368 177
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Posted by MikeT23 on 1/28/2011 3:03:00 PM (view original):
I like to believe WifS does this to me during the playoffs:

Its nice that you keep a smile on your face while they **** you
1/31/2011 3:21 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
Life, lemons, lemonade, etc, etc.
1/31/2011 3:22 PM
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