Offense Rating Topic

MikeT23
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MG and Coop aren't quite as pronounced but you can see the leanings in the same direction.    It's a little harder to acquire your "perfect" player in those worlds but it's reasonably evident that I've made the effort with both of them.
2/16/2011 4:50 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by dedelman on 2/16/2011 4:47:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/16/2011 8:33:00 AM (view original):
Speed coupled with contact can produce a lot of infield hits.   I don't think it's wise to discount it.
Mike, I'm almost certain, after looking at this several times, that infield hits are a "flavor" of hit rather than an actual event where speed makes an out into a hit.  That is, the sim decides the guy has gotten a hit, and then if he's fast it's more likely to be reported as an infield hit. 

That's obviously different from real life and I was surprised, so I tried to confirm it several ways... the simplest was to take several pairs of guys, one with lots of infield hits and the other with none, but similar blue ratings, and compare their BAs.  After adjusting for park, and if they had enough big league ABs to compare, I found the BAs to be nearly identical for all pairs.  No advantage for the guy with all the infield hits.

Bunt hits I think are similar... there are guys with about 10-15 bunt hits on teams with 0-5 sacrifices, suggesting that it comes not from a "super-successful" sac attempt, but from a hit being labeled a bunt hit by virtue of speed.
I'm not going to dispute this because I haven't look at it in forever.   But I had players "outperforming" their ratings and I couldn't figure it out.   After digging and digging I found that they were fast with good contact and they'd have 30-35 IF hits.   I'm talking about the 80 contact/80 speed guys with mediocre splits(50ish) and poor power(20/30ish).   It just wasn't making sense to me how a guy I saw as a .250 hitter and he was hitting .290-.300.  

Things may have changed because I started moving away from fast guys with poor baserunning(a bad combo) so that limited the pool.  And my interest in it this unexplained phenomenom.
2/16/2011 4:56 PM
MikeT23
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Looking at more recent results, I may have to agree with you.   Gibbs, Blanco and Diaz are all pretty similar.    I'd say Blanco is better, based on splits and discounting eye since I'm only looking at BA, but Blanco/Diaz have almost identical career BA(.268/.266).   Gibbs is hitting .274 but he has less than 800 career AB.   I'd have expected Diaz, based on IF hits, to be a good 10-15 points higher than Blanco.  More in line with Gibbs.
2/16/2011 5:08 PM
keithjs
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I just looked at (Contact + Speed) for all of my players and most of the guys at the top of the list are better than expected performers.  Another thing that I've learned from these forums.
2/16/2011 7:47 PM
jtrinsey
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<a style="color:black;" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=1222841" target="_blank">Vinny Edwards</a>
<a style="color:black;" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2141305" target="_blank">Lenny Farley</a>
<a style="color:black;" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2546144" target="_blank">Douglas Griffin</a>
<a style="color:black;" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=1595325" target="_blank">Pedro Figureoa</a>
<a style="color:black;" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2554336" target="_blank">Dick McLaughlin</a>
<a style="color:black;" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2697070" target="_blank">Pasqual Pulido</a>
<a style="color:black;" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2350778" target="_blank">Andrew Evans</a>
<a style="color:black;" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2350499" target="_blank">Garry Pride</a>

Those are the kind of guys I like to go for; I think it shows how important power is. Edwards has unspectacular ratings with the exception of power, but that makes him a .900 OPS star. Even a guy like McLaughlin gives damn good production for a CF, despite the fact that his non-power ratings are atrocious. Ditto for a guy like Figureoa, who has good power and eye and terrible otherwise, but gives .800 OPS at SS. These guys are all kind of the same types of guys (all have good power, a few also have good batting eye, and a couple of them are decent elsewhere), and are all more or less productive. None of them are truly elite hitters (to get that, you need to get a couple of the other ratings into the 80s in addition to power), but you get enough guys like them on your team and you will score a lot of runs.

I'll take 50/90/50/50/50 over 90/50/50/50/50, 50/50/50/50/90, or 50/50/90/90/50 any day of the week.
2/17/2011 12:09 AM
trobone
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Posted by tecwrg on 2/16/2011 10:17:00 AM (view original):
"i'll gladly trade power for walks and steals and average"

Walks and steals don't advance runners on base the way power does.  The object of your offense should be to (a) get runners on base, and (b) advance them to home.  You really need a good balance of OBP and SLG in your lineup, hopefully optimized in your batting order to maximize the number of runs you score.
that's true. That's why when I finish building a team it always ends up with 2-3 true power hitters... but when it comes to 1,2,6,7,8,9 hitters i love guys who get on base a lot, extend the innings, and get to the boppers. to me a guy who hits 40 doubles is undervalued, so I can get better value for those guys and use money elsewhere to build a team.

of course with the new team i just picked up it's going to take 2-3 seasons to get to where i want.
2/17/2011 1:59 AM
MikeT23
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Jeez, JTR, Edwards is a stud.   Nothing surprising with him.   I'll take any player with a 70s across the board and one rating in the 90(doesn't have to be power).  Same with McLaughlin and Figueroa.   Everybody takes guys like that.  And you're paying big bucks so it's reasonable to believe others in your world chase those guys or you'd have them on the cheap.   No surprises there.

Also, a quick learning moment.  On the player card, you'll see a little WifS insignia.   Click it and then come to the forums and click the same insignia on the post header.  You'll get this:   Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Vinny Edwards 
 

2/17/2011 8:15 AM
MikeT23
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A good example is Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Vic Ramirez

I signed him 30 days into the season due to an injury.  I'd say he was unspectacular except for power.   And he produced a nice .761 OPS as a fill-in(starting against lefties).  The fact that I got him so late would indicate that there was no interest in that type.
2/17/2011 8:20 AM
jtrinsey
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Yeah, Ramirez is a good example. Kind of like Garry Pride that I linked above; a great way to get decent production for very little.

Also, thanks for the tip there; I've been trying to figure out how to do that for a while.
2/17/2011 11:46 AM
bighead34
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Posted by jtrinsey on 2/16/2011 2:29:00 PM (view original):
Here's what I'll say about this: you'll rarely see an outstanding hitter (OPS above .900) with power below 70 and you'll almost never see a guy who puts up truly elite seasons (1.000+ OPS) year after year who isn't 85+ power. But I've seen plenty of guys OPS 1.000+ with one of the other ratings in the 60s or even high 50s if everything else is good enough. I think I would take a 70/95/70/70/70 guy over an 80/70/80/80/80 guy. So, in my opinion, if you are talking about trying to find a top-level hitter, you need a ton of power plus 2 out of 3 of the contact/splits/eye ratings to be damn good as well.

On the other hand, I think things get iffier when you are trying to find that "just productive enough" guy on the cheap. Maybe you are trying to decide which no-bat defensive shortstop to take or you are capped out and trying to find a cheap solution in RF that can still OPS around .750. In that case, I think you need to look more closely at the combination in ratings. I had a guy whose ratings were something like 55/90/30/15/75 who gave me 4 solid pre-arb years of .800ish OPS as part of a cheap leftfield platoon. As MikeT mentioned, a guy with high contact, speed and baserunning might be able to give you a .350 OBP and tack on 40 or 50 steals to make himself somewhat useful if he can play defense. I think if a guy's contact, power and eye are all below 70, it doesn't matter what his splits are, he's probably not going to OPS over .800 for his career.

In general, I guess I differ from some on here in that I don't necessarily look for a "balanced" lineup. I think you just look for the most productive hitters you can get at each spot. I don't think there's all that much of a "synergistic" effect of combining high-OBP guys at the top and high-SLG guys in the middle as some people tend to think there is.
the reason you are finding power to be so valuable is because the statistic you are using, OPS, is severely biased towards power hitters...OPS, while an improvement over most of the statistics that came before it, is still extremely flawed...studies have shown that in order to combine OBP and SLG into a statistic that properly weights each component's contribution to producing runs, you need to double the OBP component...therefore, a hitter with an OPS of .850, with a slash line of .275/.300/.550 (2*OBP+SLG = 1.150) produces almost exactly the same amount of runs as a hitter with an OPS of .750 with a slash line of .275/.400/.350 (2*OBP+SLG = 1.150)
2/17/2011 5:39 PM
isack24
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I think the actual formula is 1.8xOBP + SLG, but yeah, not all OPSes are created equal.
2/17/2011 6:10 PM
MikeT23
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Very small sample size but, in my two worlds that are far enough along to matter, only one team below the league average OPS is above the league average in runs.   And they're .003 below OPS average. 
2/17/2011 6:10 PM
MikeT23
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Same leagues, 8 teams below the league average in runs are over the league average in OBP(one was the above mentioned team).
2/17/2011 6:13 PM
bighead34
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mike, look for teams that have similar OPS but differ significantly in OBP and SLG...i bet you'll find that most of the time, the team with the higher OBP will score more runs
2/17/2011 6:23 PM
bighead34
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Posted by isack24 on 2/17/2011 6:10:00 PM (view original):
I think the actual formula is 1.8xOBP + SLG, but yeah, not all OPSes are created equal.
in "The Book" i believe they say 2*OBP, but i've definitely seen that 1.8*OBP elsewhere
2/17/2011 6:24 PM
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