I'm not doing it.  Well, I'm not doing evals... I might start commenting now that most teams have at least 3 players.

topic for conversation:

it's the third pick that makes a team, not the first

I'm not qualified to write evals, I've never won a league. I would agree that the third pick makes the team, though. 

Posted by felonius on 3/27/2011 4:25:00 PM (view original):
topic for conversation:

it's the third pick that makes a team, not the first

I agree and disagree with this statement. 

A great first pick doesn't guarantee anything.  Most owners pick a great player in the first round.  It's the guys you surround that player with that really define how the team will behave. In this way, I agree with this statement.

However, a great third round pick will rarely make up for a mistake in the first.  It's in this way that I disagree.


If you look at my draft (atypical because of the trade, yet still):  In the first, I took Kidd.  That should automatically define what I'm doing the rest of the way:  I intend on destroying my opponent on the boards.  If I'm drafting a PG whose creb% is (at minimum of the seasons I would use) 16%, then I'm going to abuse you on the boards.  My next pick was Kobe.  Again, good boards from the back court.  He's also a high volume scorer who just happens to be a FTA monster.  My next pick would generally be a low usage big man who cleans the boards, but the guys I was looking at were gone, yet Boozer was still there... he gives me boards & a good EFG% with more than 55% of those points coming from the paint.  Boozer really didn't define my team - I already had the elements of the team there... after Kidd & Kobe, it really didn't matter - I didn't need a single other high tier usage player, so I'm just going to grab boards - but he did define it somewhat in the respect that now I'll have two big-time offensive threats.  He simultaneously helped (another scorer, good efg%, paint presence) and hurt (poor at getting to the line, taking away from Kobe) my team.

updated...

i remember when monk posed this question before, and the jury couldn't reach concensus. it's an interesting hypothesis, but that's all it is, "interesting". what defines a team? not sure... like asking, what is beauty? a naked jessica alba, or a thunderstorm? however, there's some credence in the question. hope peja doesn't define my team, though i am a fan of low to's and fls.

here's my thing:

unless you are an idiot the first two picks are usually pretty straightforward, it's that third pick that so often derails a draft and separates the men for the childrens

I guess I had a different idea of what you meant by defining a team.  I don't exactly disagree with you, but I'm not sure how to communicate my thoughts appropriately at this point.

Posted by felonius on 3/27/2011 7:23:00 PM (view original):
here's my thing:

unless you are an idiot the first two picks are usually pretty straightforward, it's that third pick that so often derails a draft and separates the men for the childrens

Ah! then yeah, 3rd pick is crutial... as is the 4th pick. like malone's choices... allen is a solid 3rd round pick, but then, right after that, he chooses barry in the 4th when troy was there for the taking... brent barry or troy murphy? did he derail his team, or make it better? on paper, he derailed his squad, however, perhaps murphy doesn't fit in the archtecture.

each pick in sequence starts to define what you'll have to take next or else it makes it easier - you can fill the required categories as you go - checking off 'I've got enough this, I've got enough that, now I need some more of those...' as you go along - a draft can go off the rails when you look up and realize you need Jason Kidd or Moses Malone in the 4th round to right the ship and bring your categories into square - news flash: Dennis Rodman is long gone and no there are any other SFs with near 50% creb still available 'so what ya gonna do now?' etc

Posted by scudmissle on 3/27/2011 7:50:00 PM (view original):

Posted by felonius on 3/27/2011 7:23:00 PM (view original):
here's my thing:

unless you are an idiot the first two picks are usually pretty straightforward, it's that third pick that so often derails a draft and separates the men for the childrens

Ah! then yeah, 3rd pick is crutial... as is the 4th pick. like malone's choices... allen is a solid 3rd round pick, but then, right after that, he chooses barry in the 4th when troy was there for the taking... brent barry or troy murphy? did he derail his team, or make it better? on paper, he derailed his squad, however, perhaps murphy doesn't fit in the archtecture.

yeah, two SGs in quick succession to go with Hakeem - you're either dead on the boards or dead on assists - pick your poison

so if it's Barry and Allen in the back court your next two picks are going to have to have better than average assist %s AND do what else needs doing and all of a sudden you find yourself really scrambling around the search engine for answers

I'll agree with all of that... except maybe he's planning on playing Barry at PG... if that's the case, then he has a pretty decent rebounding point guard with great efg%.  He's also a high-volume bomber with low usage, which works perfectly when you have Jesus & the Dream already on the team.  Also, the cumulative ast% works out pretty nicely without having to use a more traditional PG.  Whereas Murphy would have given a relatively low offensive rebounder at either the 4 or 5, something he probably couldn't afford to do with the Dream already there.  So, if he has a plan to get some cheap boards later and play Barry at the point, then yeah, Barry was probably the right pick in that particular scenario.  If he's planning on playing him or Allen at SF, then I think it was the wrong move.  So, in this case, I would need to see the 4th pick before I would call it a derail. 

we could almost pin point the right pick for him now - let me check something....

yep, right off the top of my head I can think of a guy still there that can bring him back around but the point remains that he's narrowed his range down to just a few guys and so he has to hold his breath to wait for his pick to come back up and hope they arent taken or he's pretty screwed - in effect he's drafted himself into a corner - there's at least one out that I can see

two?

also that cumulative asg thing didnt work real well with my last team where I had 3 dudes with high teen asg% at my 1-2-3 - not sure why, in theory it should - maybe it's because the seble troll comes at night and f-s with my team while Im sleeping?