Posted by zags27 on 3/31/2011 3:28:00 PM (view original):

One of the reasons this game went like it did.... was the shooter sat down at 16mins in with fouls... didn't re-enter the game until 10 mins later. The game was still close until the final minutes even tho the shooter, who gets at least 75-80 distro, wasn't in the game. If he plays the entire game and doesn't sit this is a different outcome. Until the game punishes guys who shoot until their arm falls off, these teams will continue to be successful.... this kid is really just a decent player. He's in my conference, with a first year coach, (Allen, so could be a freehd 1 and done), and will beat some teams in our conference the next 3 weeks that are much better talent wise, recruited for, and coached, than he is... the engine just happens to be rewarding these players/coaches right now who want to put 100% distro to one guy and leave. 

Salem State is actually ahead in this game with 8:30 left and gets outscored 25-5 or so the last 8 mins... and the high distro kid doesn't score again I don't think. Not real sure what if anything that can be learned here.

zags, they have a 165 rpi and the kid is scoring very inefficiently.

Posted by dahsdebater on 3/31/2011 2:25:00 PM (view original):
I know you're a much better coach than me girt, but in this case he's taking a huge percentage of shots from beyond the arc, but almost all of them are taken by that 1 player.  My thought was that by double teaming him in the 2-3 you're pretty much leaving other perimeter shooters open.  But they aren't shooting, so that shouldn't kill you.  And you have 3 guys inside to rebound if he misses and prevent easy putbacks.

You're overthinking ... this is literally a "shut down this kid and you win" scenario. This kid takes a huge volume of shots, and practically all of them are from 3pt range. So basically, your entire gameplan should be to shut him down from 3pt range. You do that and you win. (And I don't care who the shots are coming from, and team that takes such a crazy high percentage of their shots from 3pt land needs to be defended with a 3-2.) 

Posted by girt25 on 3/31/2011 2:21:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 3/31/2011 2:10:00 PM (view original):
He has 0 defensive players who are up to the challenge.  And fd343ny, his 3pt% is just under 40%, so not blowing you away good but pretty darn good for taking that many shots...

He DT'd him, held him to 24 pts on 20 shots (7-20 shooting, all 3p's) and won the game by 19.

And dahs, for a team taking such an enormously high percentage of their shots from 3p range, I think you'd be crazy to go with a 2-3 vs. a 3-2. (He actually went with a 2-3, balanced that adjusted to a +2 in the second half. But the DT and the fact that he was 50 pts better per man proved to be enough.)

I actually had set my team to a 3-2 +1 and not sure why my team played a 2-3 o unless it was the fact that it was right around gametime when I set it (it was late), or I just did not save it by mistake. Thanks for the advice from all and I have a great deal of respect for you guys, this takes some thinking, I like that. I have to learn about 2nd half adjustments. I am obviously a novice to the 10th degree here but this is a very interesting game and much more complex then the football version. I like that even though I have a ton to learn. Thanks again guys or the help and your conversations amongst each other are fascinating...

I guess I just did not save it because I was still in the 2-3, I see what the talk was about. I am now in 3-2 and zero, I'll go from there...

Just keep in mind when to switch it and when not to ... there are teams in your conference (like Alleghany) that clearly call for a minus 2-3 zone. (Although a quick look tells me I'd be playing 3-2 against the majority of them.)

Thanks girt, I'll take your advice and do appreciate it...

I'm often perplexed about what to do when a team has a kid who takes tons of shots, is very inefficient but scores a lot.  Should I double him or adjust plus/minus?  I sometimes do that.  Then othertimes, I say, let him shoot, he's killing his team - if he passes out of the double team I am making them a better team, so sometimes I dont.  I just dont know

I'm sure this is very helpful perspective!

I hate to make too much out of one game but I just doubled teamed this player in last night's game.

www.whatifsports.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=6837749

Ignoring sample size issues, the result just doesn't make sense.  I played a 2-3 zone (-5) and double teamed Jack Wilson.  I have a vastly superior team, this is a team mostly comprised of SIM AI recruits and while Jack Wilson is a good player, he's not anything special.  All my guards have him beat in athleticism and all but one have him beat in speed (and the guy that doesn't trails him by just three).

He went 10-24 in the game and all 24 shots were from three point range.

I've mentioned my theory on this before.  I think the 8/28 update that reduced variance outweighs the impact of quality of defense, doubleteams, etc.  That's not to say they don't matter at all, but if Wilson's a true 39% three point shooter, the more shots he takes, the more likely it is he gets there even in the face of other factors.

According to the play by play, he took 10 three pointers where he wasn't double teamed and hit 4 of them.  14 of his shots were contested by two players and he hit 6 of them.  The doubleteam did not seem to make a difference.

And at the same time, by double teaming Wilson and by running a -5 I was begging to get beat on the perimeter by the other players on the team.  Not that any of them are all that talented, but the other four players who took threes in that game went 3-16 from deep.

So to summarize, double-teamed star goes 10-24.  Wide open looks go 3-16.  That doesn't make much sense.

I realize it's just one game but looking at this player's season shows a real trend.  Two games prior he put up 43 points against a double team in this effort: www.whatifsports.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=6831363

For the season he's averaging 34 points a game in 27 minutes and he's hitting threes at 39% clip.  The scary thing about him is that he really isn't even all that good.