Working the numbers without ADV Scouting? Topic

MikeT23
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I work pretty much the same way.   I project my team three seasons in advance, assuming no additons, so I do look at a 2nd year player and think "He'll be 75/87/72/74/65,   That's good enough for a COF" but I don't really care if I'm 3-5 points off in any of those numbers because it's not a drastic drop/increase.   If I'm projecting him into the mid 50s/low 60s, he's not a COF so he better be doing something with the glove. 

All in all, I think way too many owners get tied up in what they think a player will be and it eats at them when he doesn't get there.
4/20/2011 9:39 AM
wilhitec
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Posted by MikeT23 on 4/20/2011 9:01:00 AM (view original):
Yeah, I was just coming back to say that I think I see the disconnect.   Owners using 0 ADV aren't that concerned with "projections".   We tend to worry with current and development.    Every owner doesn't develop players the same so it's difficult to judge a player you didn't sign.  You have to look at how that particular owner has drafted, signed and developed players to figure out if he's doing a good job with young players when considering a trade.  That's why the original question can't be answered with any accuracy.

I've heard you throw out the "every owner doesn't develop players the same" comment before Mike...I'm intrigued.  I try to develop my players by giving them adequate playing time...and hiring quality minor league coaches.  How do you???

4/20/2011 12:19 PM
MikeT23
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What owners try to do and what they actually do can be two entirely different things.  

Some owners are strictly RL/LoA, HiA, AA, AAA, BL even if that's not the best thing to do.   Some owners let SIMMY run their minors.  Some owners de-activate a player and forget about him.  Some owners start players in AAA because that's where their best coach is.   Some owners put a player at a level because that's their plan but have a crap coach.  Some owners skimp on training.  

In short, dozens of things can derail development.   You have to figure out, when you're trading, if the player you want really only developed 5 points in his first season because that's all he's got or if his owner screwed him up.   In one of my worlds, a quality owner(or so I thought) left a legit prospect de-activated the entire season.  The player wasn't a stud but he could have sat on a BL bench one day.  He just got lost in the shuffle.
4/20/2011 1:30 PM
MikeT23
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Of course, this ended up right where it started.    0 ADV can't be used by applying some magic formula because there are lots of variables. 
4/20/2011 1:44 PM
keithjs
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I have been moving down to 0 ADV. in my two teams  Right now I am at 8, which is basically useless because a lot of guys have projections that look like Albert Pujols. 

It took me about half a season to start ignoring the projection line completely.  Now I just look at current ratings and development to figure out how good someone will be.  I have also been keeping my draft projections from past seasons in spreadsheets, and using those to get a sense of projections for a guy that is available for trade or waivers.  This has worked pretty well and I'm looking forward to spending that saved money on acquiring better players.
4/20/2011 1:55 PM
jtrinsey
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I think sooner or later something has to be done about advanced scouting. I think that within another year so that more than 50% of players will be at 0 advanced. Kind of stupid to have something in the game that really doesn't do a whole lot.

I wish advanced scouting also somehow gave you information on a player's decline. Some players start declining at 30 while others can barely see any kind of drop until they hit 35. Makeup gives a little clue, but not much. This would make advanced scouting a bit more useful, even if it was some sort of year-end report you got in your inbox.

4/20/2011 4:56 PM
MikeT23
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I guess it depends on what you consider "a whole lot".   I can say that I'm very comfortable with 0 ADV.  I can also say that I'm not winning more games with 0 ADV.  Maybe it's because others are at 0 ADV or maybe it's because people with ADV are more comfortable in trading for players in their first season or maybe I'm just ******* that extra budget money away on bad, long-term deals that F me over for several seasons.  
4/20/2011 5:08 PM
MikeT23
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IOW, unless there's some proof that 0 ADV are dominating and the 20m ADV are falling behind, I'm not so sure that anything needs to be done.
4/20/2011 5:09 PM
Braziman
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Where's Arlen when we need him to keep the sky from falling?
4/20/2011 5:49 PM
toddcommish
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Suffice to say, it's probably better for a n00b to use a higher ADV and "learn" the typical progressions and how they relate to the ADV projections.

Save the 0 ADV for the long-term guys that really think they understand.
4/20/2011 5:56 PM
Braziman
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Good advice for n00bs, I'd agree.

They don't usually have dominant teams which must have high payrolls to lock in the talent, which forces an owner to take the money from somewhere else in the budget.
4/20/2011 7:13 PM
Crump123
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Posted by MikeT23 on 4/20/2011 5:09:00 PM (view original):
IOW, unless there's some proof that 0 ADV are dominating and the 20m ADV are falling behind, I'm not so sure that anything needs to be done.
Not a case of dominating, it's a case of forcing other owners to adopt the same strategy. There is no significant benefit to running 20M ADV against 0ADV. If you are running 20M ADV in a good world, you're effectively playing with a 165M payroll, which forces you to budget the 20M elsewhere. The benefit of high ADV no longer justifies it's cost. I liked having high ADV, but in brutal economic terms, it's payback no longer justifies its cost. People rarely trade prospects, and dev cycles are predictable therefore, why why pay money to see something you can estimate to a high degree of accuracy, 95+% of the time.



4/21/2011 7:57 AM (edited)
MikeT23
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That's a bit of a contradiction.    Are people rarely trading prospects because of 0 ADV or is that just how it's always been?    I think prospects have been overvalued since Day 1 of Season 1 in Aaron. 

My question is this:  What are owners doing with that 12-20m?  I'm not sure we know but I know my results haven't changed since I went 0.   In fact, I could argue my worst stretch in any world, 6 consecutive playoff-less seasons in Coop, coincided with my 2nd season at 0 ADV.    Maybe I figured something out over those 18 months(2 consecutive division titles) or maybe it has no bearing whatsoever.
4/21/2011 7:59 AM
Crump123
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It's always been that way, people won't trade top prospects, but that's half my point, if people won't trade prospects, then why waste money on seeing how good someone else's player will be.

Payroll/Prospect Payroll.
4/21/2011 8:10 AM
MikeT23
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Again, that's a contradiction.   You're saying owners are being forced to move away from high ADV in order to compete with 0 ADV in one breath and saying it was a waste of budget because owners wouldn't trade their prospects anyway in the next breath. 

If it was a waste to begin with, moving away from it is a smart move regardless of what anyone else does.
4/21/2011 8:34 AM
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