Posted by courtmagic on 5/3/2011 8:43:00 PM (view original):
But your arguement is only one side of the equation. The 6 additional min per day + 2 additional min per day + 3 additional min per day = 74 to 77 minutes spent on Ratings improvements (which he's probably gonna lose now) that could have been spent on maintaing the GPA, which if he would have, he wouldn't have to dump all the extra minutes into it now and take away from the ratings improvements. In my specific example of my own guy who got a 2.7 on the 1st semester final, it meant I could decrease his minutes now to 16 for the 3rd quarter and put the extra 10 back into Ratings Improvements (4.0 - 2.6) x 10 +2 = 16 minutes. It's quite likely that instead of a 2.0 on the final in your example he probably could have easily gotten a 2.5 as well and by using your formula he would only have to bump him up to 15 minutes. We are using the same basic formula except that I add 2 minutes for freshman and round the GPA down a tenth to play it safe in order to improve my players on a nice bell curve instead of going through peaks & valleys. Your 23 minutes + my 2 minutes for freshman + .1 rounded down (1.7 to 1.6) = my original 26 minutes.
I think you have some misconceptions. I'll try to lay it out without an overly long explanation. That formula doesn't seem to have any relationship to helping players improve better or faster or saving you minutes in the long run. It just does one thing really well, which is to insure that there are no ineligible players. I am pretty sure it slows down your player development and you are not saving anything, except saving yourself from risk of ineligibility. Just because you start very high and decrease monotonically, doesn't mean that you are being more efficient than if you had started low and spiked intermitently. A spiking strategy which anticpates the occasional need to increase minutes (by "spiking" I mean a rapid increase to accomodate a bad grade report) is almost certainly more efficient because you only have to spike a few players on your roster, whereas your strategy is required for EVERY player. You are probably wasting minutes on 75% of your players.
Your plan has one distinct advantage, which is that there is negligible risk of ineligiblity. What makes this question (and this thread) so interesting is that figuring out the risk and the cost of the risk is very tricky. Nobody knows that actual risk. Furthermore, it seems like lately the extreme outlier GPA results are more common. I don't know that for certain, but it seems that way, based on the comments I read and my own results. If this is true, then the risk has increased.
The other factor is that to each coach, what constitutes an acceptable risk is different. If you most vehemently want to avoid any chance of ineligibility, then what I may define as "waste," for you, is not a waste at all. So, I won't say you are doing it wrong or should do it another way. But, I am pretty sure you have got the wrong idea about some things.