Posted by MikeT23 on 4/21/2012 12:04:00 PM (view original):
I came up with one in about 2 minutes after reading your post.   And I'm pretty sure that was when we could rank individually.

MORE GOOD PLAYERS has to come with a negative.   Early pick busts is not the answer.

As long as they keep the proper balance between pitchers and hitters, please explain to me why a few more good players has to come with a negative.  By a few I mean mix in one (1) mid level DitR with all the regular crappy ones every 3 to 4 seasons.  The Matt Kemps of MLB are kinda rare (just ask the Pirates) but they do happen and could/should happen in HBD as well. 

Stated a thousand times but look at is this way:
Every team has the following:
3-90
7-80
10-70
5-60

Now change that to 8-80,9-70.  What have you done?   Devalued everything.   What's the point?

If only crappy players can become DitRs, now less crappy but still missing the majors, what is the point of that?

Some make the majors.  I've had 5-6.   Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Orlando Bonilla

Backup catchers, defensive subs, SetupB or Mopup RPs.   DitRs do occasionally produce these.  When was the last time HBD had a 6th round draft pick that turned out to be a serious MVP (or Cy Young) candidate as in Matt Kemp?  Or how about a 13th round draft pick?  A 13th rounder was just signed to a big contract by a team in Anaheim.  Any guesses who that is?   Yeah, he was drafted in the 13th round!  How about MLB's all time post season wins leader Andy Pettitte---He was taken in the 22nd round.

HBD currently has no mechanism in place for a lower round draft pick to have big success in the Majors.  Obviously this should be somewhat rare but it does happen in real life and could happen in HBD.  Allowing the occasional mid-level prospect to become a DitR would be a step towards that. 
 

In order to get 22nd round stars, you have to have #2 pick slugs.   No one wants that.   This has been discussed hundreds, if not thousands, of times.

Posted by dyoungquist on 4/22/2012 12:14:00 AM (view original):

Backup catchers, defensive subs, SetupB or Mopup RPs.   DitRs do occasionally produce these.  When was the last time HBD had a 6th round draft pick that turned out to be a serious MVP (or Cy Young) candidate as in Matt Kemp?  Or how about a 13th round draft pick?  A 13th rounder was just signed to a big contract by a team in Anaheim.  Any guesses who that is?   Yeah, he was drafted in the 13th round!  How about MLB's all time post season wins leader Andy Pettitte---He was taken in the 22nd round.

HBD currently has no mechanism in place for a lower round draft pick to have big success in the Majors.  Obviously this should be somewhat rare but it does happen in real life and could happen in HBD.  Allowing the occasional mid-level prospect to become a DitR would be a step towards that. 
 

If draft scouting was the kind of exact science in MLB that it is in in HBD, it wouldn't happen in real life very often either.  My point is that the draft in HBD just isn't very realistic at all.   I'm fine with that, because I don't think making it realistic would make HBD a better game to play.  As such, trying to manufacture realism by suddenly turning late round picks into All-Stars just ends up rewarding people that haven't done anything to deserve it.

I don't necessarily think any of this needs to change, but if I had to make a change to the draft to promote a somewhat wider distribution of talent, I'd probably do something like adding a "boom/bust" rating to draft prospects.  Projections would still be the best current estimate of their ceiling, but at some time in their first couple pro years, it's decided whether they boom (see an increase in their ceiling), bust (decrease) or stay the same.  This would also add some relevance to advance scouting, because while you could still see development, you wouldn't be able to know if, say, the guy had just come up as a bust.

Now, I'm not under any illusion that this would lead to All-Star talent slipping to the 20th round - everyone would just move all the high "boom" probabilities up  - but it would probably lead to .  And it wouldn't be random, there would be calculated risks/decisions involved. 

Posted by MikeT23 on 4/22/2012 8:10:00 AM (view original):

I suppose I could dig it up if I tried but I made a suggestion long ago about DITR.   Briefly:

1. Only players on winning teams, at  that level, are eligible.
2. League leaders in specific categories are eligible.
3. Only players at appropriate levels, with appropriate experience, are eligible(1st year-RL, LoA, HiA, 2nd year-AA, 3rd year-AAA).
4. The league leaders(one from each league IF they meet the other requirements) would receive bumps in specific categories.   HR-power, SB-BR/speed, AVG-contact, etc, etc.
5.  If the league leader is ineligible, no DITR bump for anyone in that category.

The one flaw is someone playing BL-quality(older players) at lower levels to prevent DITR by leading the league.   Such is life, IMO.

I would like something like this. Here's why.

When I first started playing the game, I spent hours ranking 100+ draft prospects. I would eagerly search for that 8th-round pick who would someday become a valuable AA player. I signed all my draft picks and put them in the correct levels. My minor league teams were all well-coached and I had full 25-man squads + ample players on the deactive list ready to get called up for duty. My minor teams were almost always in the playoffs.

Flash forward 10+ seasons and now I don't even rank prospects (considering I'm always picking 16+ and generally sign at least one Type A, I basically just punt the draft) and only sign the bare minimum of my late-round picks in order to be able to field minor league teams. I just hire good coaches at AAA and HiA. Decent prospects spend their first season in HiA and then move to AAA until I need them in the majors. Everything else just gets filled out enough so I have a team. My minor league teams never win **** and sometimes only have like 23 or 24 players per level.

My overall prospect development seems to be pretty much the same. That just doesn't seem right. There should be some penalty for the fact that I spend almost no attention (besides not having 0(0) pitchers and making sure my prospects aren't getting fatigued and are getting enough AB/IP) to my minor league. Or put another way, there should be some small bonuses to the owners who put more time/effort into the game.

agree

Assuming this can be done from a programming standpoint. Players should advance on a standard basis. I will use pitching control as an example. The average pitcher will advance 3 points per year
Age 18: rookie/draft: 50 control
Age 19: Lo A            53 control
Age 20: Hi A             56 control
Age 21: AA              59 control
Age 22: AAA            62 control
Age 23: AAA             65 control
Age 24: ML              68 control
Age 25 ML               71 control
Age 26: ML             74 control
Age 27 ML               77 control

Here is where the potential changes. There is a scale of 0- 6.
10% chance of 0 improvement
10% chance of +1 improvement
10% chance of +2 improvement
40% chance of + 3 improvement
10% chance of +4 improvement
10% chance of +5 improvement
10% chance of +6 improvement

40% will perform per norm. 30% will underperform, & 30 percent will overperform to various degrees

Example with above player. He will be 12 points better than normal.
minors +4                                                            
Age 18: rookie/draft: 50 control
Age 19: Lo A 54 control
Age 20: Hi A 58 control
Age 21: AA  62 control
Age 22: AAA  66 control
Age 23:AAA 69 control    This is a 6 year FA if I have no advanced scouting or if it is low I may not protect him not realizing he has a bright future
Majors +5
Age 24: ML 74 control
Age 25: ML  79 control
Age 26 ML   84 control
Age 27: ML   89 control

Every owner sees the same ratings. The difference will be in the number of players seen based on budget per category;
0 = no players seen
1 = 5% seen
2 = 10% seen
10 = 50% seen
20 = 100 % seen

The more money I spend on scouting the more likely I am to find a +6

Intl scouting will show intl, High School will apply to High school, college to college and Advanced will apply to players over age 23. In other words the high school, college and international scouting will only apply to age 23, Advance scouting will show progression of players from age 24 to 27
Examples:
. I could have a hs budget of 20 select a bunch of + 4 and if I have no advance budget I would not realize that they are  + 0 from age 24 on.
I could draft a +1 college senior because of a low college budget and realize after the draft that he is a +6 from ages 24 to 27 due to a high advanced scouting budget.. These ratings would also have trade significance i.e an owner with no advanced scouting not realizing his poor perfiorming minor league player is about to bloom

Mirky- where does coaching, and playing time factor in?  Couldn't you figure out the pattern for each guy after 1 or 2 seasons (+6, +6 = lots more growth; versus +4, +2...ect)  

Yes the pattern would be predictable. You would know exactly what the player's potential is if everything went smoothly for the player. However, if things did not go smoothly, it would change. What I propose is thsi. There would be variables that would alter the projection course. In other words there would be modifiers. for instance, injuries. There would be 3 modifiers: injury, recovery and duration. The modifier would be from 0 to 6.

Example 1:
1. Injury modifier: A player is projected at +6 for minor and major league projections, but he gets injured severely. A -6 injury alters his +6 progression to a 0 for the season. (6-6=0, yes negative numbers are possible. Players sometimes get worse following an injury, i.e. trying to pitch with a damaged shoulder causes more damage).
2. Recovery modifier: The injury has a +1 recovery rate. Add 1 point to the 0 and the players progression would now be +1 for the season. Player makeup and medical budget would have modifiers that potentially could improve or decrease the recovery rate.
3. Duration modifier: This determines how long the effects of the injury last. The duration modifier is +5 for this injury. That means the effects of this injury would last for      5 seasons. The above player who was a + 6 will now be a +1 for the next 5 seasons. Without advanced scouting I would not know this. Also with advanced scouting I would be able to see that a player who shows no progress for 2 years may be a +6 once he reaches age 24

Example 2..
1. Progression modifier. (0-2). Most players would follow a normal progression of: Age 18 rookie, Age 19 Lo A, Age 20 Hi A, Age 21 AA, Age 22 AAA, Age 23 AAA, Age 24 ML. Any player not at the age appropriate level will lose 1 point for each level above or below appropriate level. In other words a player promoted too soon or not in a timely fashion would lose 1 point from their progress for the season. Example a +3 would become a +2. Exceptions: High makeup players could be promoted early with 0 loss and, if makeup is high enough, potentially multiple levels. i.e. Big leagues by Age 20. You would find this out from that correspondence reports from each level i.e. AA pitching or Hi A hitting reports. They would say based on makeup that the player is able to be promoted..Low makeup players would lose 2 points on projection from early promotion. 
2. Demotion modifier. All players would lose 1 point from demotion at any level. More points for multiple levels. i.e. AAA to Hi A would be 2 points. A high makeup player could be demoted with 0 alteration a Low makeup player with 2 point loss.
3. Duration modifier: Depending on the makeup the effects would last from 1 to 3 seasons. The higher the makeup the less the variation as per above. This would account for things such as loss of confidence, development of poor work habits due to discouragement etc. Example. I have a 24 year old who is a +6. First of all without advanced scouting I would not know this so there is a chance he would be a rule 5 draft pick. Secondly, If he did survive rule 5 draft He would lose 1 point off his progression for potentially 3 years.This would also prevent stockpiling players in the minors because they would lose progression points for each year in the minors.
Without advanced scouting I would not know any of this. Also there  would now need to be quality coaches at every level. You couldn't just promote to the level of the highest coach.

There would also be modifiers for player/coach interactions, but I haven't had a chance to work on these numbers yet. For instance a bad pitching coach may lower a pitchers progress 1 point, whereas a great pitching coach could raise it 1 level. There would also be modifiers for player temper and makeup vs. coaching discipline and patience. i.e. a low temper player with low makeup paired with a bench coach with high patience and low temper may not push himself. All of the above would also have a duration of 1-3 years which you would not know without advanced scouting. Once again quality of coaches at every level would matter.

In summary just because you knew exactly what a player can be does not mean you would know exactly where that player will be.

That's pretty complicated for virtually no change.   If development patterns are relatively predictable(barring injury), it's almost the same as what we have.