Is this SS worth $20 M? Topic

MikeT23
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A few things(and I know I'm going to sound like a dick but it is what it is):

1.   I haven't seen anything where the OP posted his IFA scouting.  I take the projections with a grain of salt without that info
2.  Owners who ask these sort of questions aren't the most experienced.   Therefore,  I take the projections with a grain of salt.
3.  Owners with a .422 record over 8 complete seasons might not be the best at developing players.  Therefore, I take the projections with a grain of salt.
4.  Finally, when someone asks "Is this SS....?" when the player clearly isn't a SS, I think they may not have a full grasp of the game.  Therefore, I take the projections with a grain of salt.

I could be wrong on all 4 counts.  But I don't think the finished product will be Wades Boggian.
6/21/2011 10:23 AM
antonsirius
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His scouting is 16 in both worlds he's in, so the projections won't be terrible (assuming he's not talking about a player he found under another ID). And they're not ridiculous based on his current ratings - it's not like he's projected to gain 50 points in a rating somewhere.

As for whether he can develop the player to his full potential... how is that relevant to the discussion? Are you saying nauds shouldn't add any top young talent at all, because they'll never meet their projections? "Hey, Mike, will this guy be any good? Should I go after him?" "He could be the next Albert Pujols for somebody else, but he'll only be Paul Konerko for you so no, don't bother."
6/21/2011 10:56 AM
deathinahole
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Excellent advice.

Why don't you go back to your own world(s), take a look back at IFAs $20M+ that were bid on 5 or more seasons ago, and tell me how valuable they are now.

I did. If you still think the risk/reward of f'ing away 1/9th (or more) of your budget is still worth it after reviewing that, then go ahead and give that advice.

6/21/2011 11:04 AM
MikeT23
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How relevant is it to the discussion?  We're trying to decide(for him) if a player is worth 36m at this point(20m signing, 16m scouting).   I think when someone asks "Is he worth it?", he's asking in the long run.   Which means when he's developed. 
6/21/2011 11:14 AM
antonsirius
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Posted by deathinahole on 6/21/2011 11:04:00 AM (view original):

Excellent advice.

Why don't you go back to your own world(s), take a look back at IFAs $20M+ that were bid on 5 or more seasons ago, and tell me how valuable they are now.

I did. If you still think the risk/reward of f'ing away 1/9th (or more) of your budget is still worth it after reviewing that, then go ahead and give that advice.

OK, I'll take a look.

Alfredo Bolivar went for $21.3m five seasons ago. Six seasons ago, nobody hit $20m but there were two players at $15.5m, Rigo Diaz and Alex Takada. Seven seasons ago, Jorge Sanchez got $20m.

Are those players going to return $20m worth of value over their careers? As I define value Sanchez probably won't, but the rest will.

Now let me ask you a question: what do you think those owners should have done with that money instead?
6/21/2011 11:27 AM
antonsirius
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Posted by MikeT23 on 6/21/2011 11:14:00 AM (view original):
How relevant is it to the discussion?  We're trying to decide(for him) if a player is worth 36m at this point(20m signing, 16m scouting).   I think when someone asks "Is he worth it?", he's asking in the long run.   Which means when he's developed. 
The $16m scouting is a sunk cost, Mike, and doesn't factor into it. As, for that matter, is the $20m signing bonus - that money either gets spent on prospects, gets transferred to player salary at a reduced rate, or wasted.

The question is: what is the best use of that $20m? What's the most efficient way to add talent to the organization? The player in question might get traded before he reaches Double-A, so whether he hits his projections or not could be someone else's problem.
6/21/2011 11:32 AM
MikeT23
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I don't think that was his question.   I think he wanted to know if anyone else would spend 20m on that player.    Under the circumstances I listed at the top of this page, my answer is "no". 

He may give up his team at the end of the season.  We can't assume that.   We have to assume, or at least I assume, that he expects him to be a BL contributor for him.
6/21/2011 11:35 AM
deathinahole
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Posted by antonsirius on 6/21/2011 11:27:00 AM (view original):
Posted by deathinahole on 6/21/2011 11:04:00 AM (view original):

Excellent advice.

Why don't you go back to your own world(s), take a look back at IFAs $20M+ that were bid on 5 or more seasons ago, and tell me how valuable they are now.

I did. If you still think the risk/reward of f'ing away 1/9th (or more) of your budget is still worth it after reviewing that, then go ahead and give that advice.

OK, I'll take a look.

Alfredo Bolivar went for $21.3m five seasons ago. Six seasons ago, nobody hit $20m but there were two players at $15.5m, Rigo Diaz and Alex Takada. Seven seasons ago, Jorge Sanchez got $20m.

Are those players going to return $20m worth of value over their careers? As I define value Sanchez probably won't, but the rest will.

Now let me ask you a question: what do you think those owners should have done with that money instead?
Probably, no, no, no.

I better be getting a HOFer. Otherwise, it's a waste

Because, $20M isn't really $20M. it's also the money lost when you transferred it from payroll. It's also the 22 other pieces you'll need after you've done this three times.

Owners that do the dump and chase do not win 1 in 32 times. Fact.
6/21/2011 11:46 AM
mhulshult
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Sounds like folks disagree...surprise!

You're assuming a HOF is or will become available for that price.  

If this were a question about budgeting, you'd be right.  Dump and chase is a bad plan, a waste of money.

But if this is mid-season, 3 things are likely or are actual fact...
1)  Free agency is pretty thin
2)  IFA is a great unknown
3)  Unused money gets flushed down the toilet at the end of the year

So I guess the answer is some would pay $20MM for him for a handful of reasons, other wouldn't, for a different handful of reasons.
6/21/2011 11:58 AM
deathinahole
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I'll give you the mid season exception, yes.
6/21/2011 12:14 PM
hbdgirl
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He's a good looking player for 3B but for $20M + , I'd want a state of the art SP.
6/21/2011 12:47 PM
taz21
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Well he wasn't asking if enterring the IFA market was a good idea or a waste of his HBD payroll dollars.  Once you enter it, if you're not prepared to drop at least $14 mil in IFA scouting, plus another $16 mil + in prospect payroll, then you're unlikely to get the stars of the IFA market in a "normal" season.  That's at least $30 mil spent to acquire 1 player, of course the payoff, if you stick around long enough is that you'll get roughly 5 cheap years before they become have an "expensive" arbitration case, then another 6 seasons (1 arb, 1 (5) year deal) at his initial asking price (which is either undermarket falue if he's a star, or over market value if he's just a piece)

$30 mil out of $185 is too much for some players, for other's its not nearly enough.  No sense in arguing that.  However, once you've jumped in, as the starter of this thread already has, there's no looking back, otherwise you're really ******* away money on your IFA scouting and budget transfers.

Personally, I think he's worth it, even if its early.  Since its early there is likely to be a player on the IFA market that is as good or better.  If its a starting pitcher, SS or CF then they have more "value" in my mind, so you may get more value out of that $20 mil elsewhere, however there are no garuntees.  A lot depends on your situation, perhaps you're stacked w/ young pitchers, and you need a few bats to round things out.  This guy will have an OK eye, great contact, solid vs righties, very durable, and decent speed.  Should be an excellant leadoff man with a little bit of pop and potentially gold glove defense at 3b.  You can do a lot worse in the IFA market.  Additionally, what kid of budgets do others have for IFAs?  Are there several teams with $14 mil + in IFA scouting, with $20 mil in prospect payroll (plus more to move over when needed)?  In that case, even if someone with more value comes along you may not have enough coin to bring them in.  However, if you're in a world where very few teams are invested in the IFA market, then passing on this guy may well net you 2 very solid players in return, perhaps one w/ more power, or middle to top of the rotatin pitcher.  Unless you know what's coming down the IFA pipeline this season, this may be the best player you see.

Its always a risk to jump in big, early in the IFA market, unless the guy is sure fire all star, potential hall of famer, but there's also risk in waiting to long and risk seeing nothing but role players and minor league lifers.  Personally, I'd have no problem dropping $20 mil on that guy, knowing it was the only IFA of significance I'd have (provided I had enough left over for the draft). A bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush.
6/21/2011 1:40 PM
antonsirius
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Posted by deathinahole on 6/21/2011 11:46:00 AM (view original):
Posted by antonsirius on 6/21/2011 11:27:00 AM (view original):
Posted by deathinahole on 6/21/2011 11:04:00 AM (view original):

Excellent advice.

Why don't you go back to your own world(s), take a look back at IFAs $20M+ that were bid on 5 or more seasons ago, and tell me how valuable they are now.

I did. If you still think the risk/reward of f'ing away 1/9th (or more) of your budget is still worth it after reviewing that, then go ahead and give that advice.

OK, I'll take a look.

Alfredo Bolivar went for $21.3m five seasons ago. Six seasons ago, nobody hit $20m but there were two players at $15.5m, Rigo Diaz and Alex Takada. Seven seasons ago, Jorge Sanchez got $20m.

Are those players going to return $20m worth of value over their careers? As I define value Sanchez probably won't, but the rest will.

Now let me ask you a question: what do you think those owners should have done with that money instead?
Probably, no, no, no.

I better be getting a HOFer. Otherwise, it's a waste

Because, $20M isn't really $20M. it's also the money lost when you transferred it from payroll. It's also the 22 other pieces you'll need after you've done this three times.

Owners that do the dump and chase do not win 1 in 32 times. Fact.
Really? You don't think the first three guys are worth paying $20m to acquire?

What would you think a fair annual salary is for them, then?
6/21/2011 5:29 PM
deathinahole
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If I told you that, it's strategy.

However, basically, transfering budget = $1M spent on nothing for every $2M transfered. From that, figure it out.
6/21/2011 5:34 PM
antonsirius
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Posted by taz21 on 6/21/2011 1:40:00 PM (view original):
Well he wasn't asking if enterring the IFA market was a good idea or a waste of his HBD payroll dollars.  Once you enter it, if you're not prepared to drop at least $14 mil in IFA scouting, plus another $16 mil + in prospect payroll, then you're unlikely to get the stars of the IFA market in a "normal" season.  That's at least $30 mil spent to acquire 1 player, of course the payoff, if you stick around long enough is that you'll get roughly 5 cheap years before they become have an "expensive" arbitration case, then another 6 seasons (1 arb, 1 (5) year deal) at his initial asking price (which is either undermarket falue if he's a star, or over market value if he's just a piece)

$30 mil out of $185 is too much for some players, for other's its not nearly enough.  No sense in arguing that.  However, once you've jumped in, as the starter of this thread already has, there's no looking back, otherwise you're really ******* away money on your IFA scouting and budget transfers.

Personally, I think he's worth it, even if its early.  Since its early there is likely to be a player on the IFA market that is as good or better.  If its a starting pitcher, SS or CF then they have more "value" in my mind, so you may get more value out of that $20 mil elsewhere, however there are no garuntees.  A lot depends on your situation, perhaps you're stacked w/ young pitchers, and you need a few bats to round things out.  This guy will have an OK eye, great contact, solid vs righties, very durable, and decent speed.  Should be an excellant leadoff man with a little bit of pop and potentially gold glove defense at 3b.  You can do a lot worse in the IFA market.  Additionally, what kid of budgets do others have for IFAs?  Are there several teams with $14 mil + in IFA scouting, with $20 mil in prospect payroll (plus more to move over when needed)?  In that case, even if someone with more value comes along you may not have enough coin to bring them in.  However, if you're in a world where very few teams are invested in the IFA market, then passing on this guy may well net you 2 very solid players in return, perhaps one w/ more power, or middle to top of the rotatin pitcher.  Unless you know what's coming down the IFA pipeline this season, this may be the best player you see.

Its always a risk to jump in big, early in the IFA market, unless the guy is sure fire all star, potential hall of famer, but there's also risk in waiting to long and risk seeing nothing but role players and minor league lifers.  Personally, I'd have no problem dropping $20 mil on that guy, knowing it was the only IFA of significance I'd have (provided I had enough left over for the draft). A bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush.
The "enough left over for the draft" is the key consideration for me. You get far more bang for your buck in the draft than you do with IFAs.
6/21/2011 5:35 PM
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