Would you take the chance on him?

No.

Posted by a_in_the_b on 11/23/2011 10:38:00 PM (view original):
Actually, if I have a 25 WE recruit, I will often redshirt them;  they still do improve that season, albeit slowly, and then by their redshirt freshman year, their IQ's are high enough that I can give them major minutes/starts without it hurting too much.

+1 same here. Gives them an extra year to develop and reach their potentials.

redshirting to me is underutilized.

i try redshirting or using an ineligible or both every year.the IQ difference alone makes a huge difference.

Posted by rednation58 on 11/23/2011 8:16:00 PM (view original):
so is WE even that important when considering a recruit? What if I have a guy with 9 WE? or even 1? Would it be just plain dumb to redshirt a guy like that even though he may have enormous potential? 

I would say that WE is very important.  BUT, if you can afford to start someone as a freshman then his WE can grow +6 or so points.  That COULD mean is WE can grow +25 "ish" for 4 years.

But, I would like to have him start in his 20's at the lowest.  It has been my experience (and I have 2 sub 20 WE guys now at Wisconsin in Rupp) that 20 seems to be a magic cutoff point.  I have a 26 WE guy who is getting all his growth as a freshman and two guys at 14 and 16 WE who are not going to grow much at all and they both started as Freshmen.

Wow ok. So in the grand scheme of things 20-25+ work ethic is a minimum requirement if you want to see a player reach full potential.

rednation, to summarize it really depends--you can sometimes find low (virtually no) WE kids who you would take even if they did not improve, either as role players or they just are so much better than you have.  But as a rule I'd agree that WE wants to be over 20, and preferrably over 40 if you want/need/expect improvement, unless they can start right now.

Kids under 20 WE I always ask myself would I still want them if they did not improve at all.  If you can answer yes, then any growth they have is icing on the cake.  So don't completely neglect them either.  But "projecting" their potential out when they have a low WE is not realistic.  I have a kid who is a junior and up to a 19 WE and high potential in most categories, but he isn't good enough to command the minutes and so he will never even approach his potential.  Another kid on another team had a 13 WE when he came in, left with a 19, but he played a key role on the team and actually was averaging double digits off the bench (after starting ~ 1/2 of his junior season until he was overtaken) his senior year.  So don't disregard them completely, just understand the risk and know where they fit into your team.

However, the vast majority of kids will need to improve to become impact players, so just evaluate with your eyes wide open and you can make any WE kid fit. 

Posted by rednation58 on 11/24/2011 6:02:00 PM (view original):
Wow ok. So in the grand scheme of things 20-25+ work ethic is a minimum requirement if you want to see a player reach full potential.

It seems like you are looking for a sure answer so you can put a bow on this, but like a lot of areas of HD, there is no certain answer.  There are a number of variables that go into it, and you may see different results than you are seeing here.  It all really comes down to how the player fits for you?

Posted by goodtymes31 on 11/25/2011 10:51:00 PM (view original):

Posted by rednation58 on 11/24/2011 6:02:00 PM (view original):
Wow ok. So in the grand scheme of things 20-25+ work ethic is a minimum requirement if you want to see a player reach full potential.

It seems like you are looking for a sure answer so you can put a bow on this, but like a lot of areas of HD, there is no certain answer.  There are a number of variables that go into it, and you may see different results than you are seeing here.  It all really comes down to how the player fits for you?

I just know good coaches have different methods they use to make a decision. For instance in this thread, judging from the feedback, I can tell who would pick up the guy I was recruiting and who wouldn't. When I get in the heat of the moment sometimes I make rash decisions which I regret later so I ask in the forum what other coaches would do. You're right there are no certain answers but I'm just looking for the rule of thumb more than anything else.