Lineup Construction Topic

topoftheworl
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Posted by MikeT23 on 1/10/2012 9:47:00 PM (view original):
Try this:

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py
Hmm. . .  not so sure about this site.  It tells-using last years stats-- that hitting Humberto Flores 3rd is my best call.  May based on ratings, but not on last seasons stats.  Not when you have Micah Hartzell, Wladimir Telemaco, Dave Bale, and Pedro Perez lying around.  I don't see if it the only info I am inputting is last season's stats.
1/11/2012 11:40 PM
MikeT23
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I said I didn't say it worked.   Statnerds calculated it out over MANY seasons and said their suggested line-ups would produce the most runs.  If you scroll down, they give you several options with the projected output.

I used it on a team last night out of frustration.    Shutout on 5 hits.
1/12/2012 9:55 AM
jtrinsey
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Posted by topoftheworl on 1/11/2012 11:40:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/10/2012 9:47:00 PM (view original):
Try this:

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py
Hmm. . .  not so sure about this site.  It tells-using last years stats-- that hitting Humberto Flores 3rd is my best call.  May based on ratings, but not on last seasons stats.  Not when you have Micah Hartzell, Wladimir Telemaco, Dave Bale, and Pedro Perez lying around.  I don't see if it the only info I am inputting is last season's stats.
Statistically, 3rd should be a weaker hitter than 1st, 2nd, 4th, or 5th.
1/12/2012 10:44 AM
a_ersberg
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Posted by topoftheworl on 1/11/2012 11:40:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/10/2012 9:47:00 PM (view original):
Try this:

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py
Hmm. . .  not so sure about this site.  It tells-using last years stats-- that hitting Humberto Flores 3rd is my best call.  May based on ratings, but not on last seasons stats.  Not when you have Micah Hartzell, Wladimir Telemaco, Dave Bale, and Pedro Perez lying around.  I don't see if it the only info I am inputting is last season's stats.
It put my SS Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Ariel Moreno  who is essentially a blind folded kid swinging at a pinata, 6th.  He's responded by going 9 of 17 with seven RBI's and six runs scored in four games.   Maybe his attitude improved by hitting higher in the lineup??
1/12/2012 11:25 AM
waltonj3
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I can tell you from preliminary results that the approaches for my ML and AA teams have paid immediate dividends (3-1) in both.  My AAA team (which admittedly has little talent) is 1-3.
1/12/2012 1:51 PM
rangerup
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I did the input on the site and other than putting my catcher in the leadoff spot it was close to what I roll out.  But I also flip flop lots of guys based on splits and best matchups.  Cool site though.
1/12/2012 2:14 PM
a_ersberg
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Posted by waltonj3 on 1/12/2012 1:51:00 PM (view original):
I can tell you from preliminary results that the approaches for my ML and AA teams have paid immediate dividends (3-1) in both.  My AAA team (which admittedly has little talent) is 1-3.
Check to see if those minor league teams were at full health.  You could roll up on a minor league team that is 2-95 consisting of 34 tryout camp pitchers all at 0% and hang 30 runs per game against them.  Which could give a false lineup reading.
1/12/2012 3:47 PM
topoftheworl
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Posted by jtrinsey on 1/12/2012 10:44:00 AM (view original):
Posted by topoftheworl on 1/11/2012 11:40:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/10/2012 9:47:00 PM (view original):
Try this:

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py
Hmm. . .  not so sure about this site.  It tells-using last years stats-- that hitting Humberto Flores 3rd is my best call.  May based on ratings, but not on last seasons stats.  Not when you have Micah Hartzell, Wladimir Telemaco, Dave Bale, and Pedro Perez lying around.  I don't see if it the only info I am inputting is last season's stats.
Statistically, 3rd should be a weaker hitter than 1st, 2nd, 4th, or 5th.
Explain.  Why 3rd be weaker than 4th or 5th.  I understand the top of the lineup is going to get a few more pa's than the bottom, but I don't understand why I wouldn't want a better guy at the 3rd hole than the 4th and 5th.
1/12/2012 8:48 PM
MikeT23
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Statistically speaking, the 3 hole sees the most 2 out, none on situations. 
1/12/2012 9:08 PM
tedwmoore
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Posted by MikeT23 on 1/12/2012 9:08:00 PM (view original):
Statistically speaking, the 3 hole sees the most 2 out, none on situations. 
And they are less likely to lead off an inning than your other top five in the lineup (mostly because of what Mike wrote).
1/12/2012 11:45 PM
shobob
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I understand that rationale.  People who are probably much smarter than me worked out that "put a poor hitter in the 3 hole" idea.  But isn't it also true that something like around 55% of the time, the third guy comes to bat with a guy on first or second to start out a game?  That makes me think that having a good power bat in there is a good idea.  That's just my own thought on the matter.
1/12/2012 11:56 PM (edited)
tedwmoore
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Posted by shobob on 1/12/2012 11:56:00 PM (view original):
I understand that rationale.  People who are probably much smarter than me worked out that "put a poor hitter in the 3 hole" idea.  But isn't it also true that something like around 55% of the time, the third guy comes to bat with a guy on first or second to start out a game?  That makes me think that having a good power bat in there is a good idea.  That's just my own thought on the matter.
It is not that you should put a poor hitter in the third spot, but that you should hit your fourth or fifth best hitter third in the lineup because you can focus less on OBP and contact skills in that spot. And, really, your fourth or fifth best hitter should still provide solid production; if not you probably will not be scoring many runs no matter what your lineup looks like.

For me, I like a power hitter in the third spot. Probably not my best power hitter, but a guy who can slug around 500 and not kill me with a horrible on base percentage. Then hit my best all-around hitter either second or fourth. And that really depends on the nature of my best hitter and how the rest of my offense profiles.
1/13/2012 12:40 AM
dahsdebater
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I have always felt that the concept of batting a better hitter 4th and possibly even 5th than 3rd falls apart a bit if you have exceptionally good OBP in the top 2 slots.  If your guys up there average ~.365 - .372 then in general assuming a relatively average bottom of the lineup it starts to be a wash, higher than that I would lean towards the better hitter batting 3rd.  Of course, not that many teams have a top 2 that average .375+ OBP.
1/13/2012 4:59 AM
MikeT23
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Regardless of the theory, I almost always put my best hitter 3rd.    That spot will get the 3rd most AB of any spot.   He will bat in the first inning.   Maybe he gets on and extends the inning.   Maybe he jacks one out.   Either way, I like a guy with pop and eye. 

1/13/2012 7:01 AM
a_ersberg
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1/13/2012 9:41 AM
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