I didn't mean that high control by itself would be "right down the middle".  Since control means walks vs. no walks, high control means he's hitting the strike zone consistently. 

But combined with low splits/movement, the ball is not moving around within the strike zone.  Conceptually, it's hitting the same part of the zone most of the time, so hitters aren't getting fooled by location, making their job much easier.  With high splits/movement, the ball is hitting different parts of the zone from pitch to pitch; not quite as easy for the hitter to anticipate.

If he had 99s across the board apart from those 33 splits Id say at best he could be a LRA with a pull of 4.  As it is he is at best a AAA player.  And even there he will get lit up more often then you would like (as if it matters there anyway)

Id like to see someone post stats of a similar player in the Bigs. He has fantastic ratings other than those L/R splits. He is a groundball pitcher. For a team with a very good defense, I think he could be OK.

Posted by tecwrg on 3/22/2012 1:26:00 PM (view original):
I didn't mean that high control by itself would be "right down the middle".  Since control means walks vs. no walks, high control means he's hitting the strike zone consistently. 

But combined with low splits/movement, the ball is not moving around within the strike zone.  Conceptually, it's hitting the same part of the zone most of the time, so hitters aren't getting fooled by location, making their job much easier.  With high splits/movement, the ball is hitting different parts of the zone from pitch to pitch; not quite as easy for the hitter to anticipate.

High control means he has control over where the pitch goes...that means he could paint the corners. This is a strength for this guy as he won't walk many and will be able to get some out.

I would treat the splits more like he doesn't have a motion/release that fools certain batters.

Saying the ball doesn't have movement just wouldn't make sense as a pitcher can have drastically different splits against RH and LH...I don't think a pitch isn't going to break depending on who is batting especially a sinker ball guy. Sure...the type of break matters, but a guy with a great curve is going to get out players on both sides.

The reality is the splits probably can't be equated to anything other than a couple of factors that WIS uses to make the game more interesting.

In general the splits indicate how effective a player is against that side.  So this guy wont be effective.  No matter what, unless like I said before he had 99s across the board.  Which he doesnt.  An 81 for a first pitch isnt good, 79 for a 2nd pitch is ok, if his 1st is in the very high 80s and his splits are decent which they arent.  This guy will be a turkey in the bigs.

I agree.  There has to be a better pitcher on the free agent scrap heap

I'd guess a full season OAV around .340, WHIP around 1.65.  If you put a good defense behind him, his 90 GB will get a lot of DP's and his ERA may be below 5.

You must have had a good team to go along with that guy

He did very well for Santa Fe. I think he's a wizard.

I hesitantly link Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Steve Drew  This piece of s---t should have an ERA of 10 + but somehow kept it a 4.30, all the while I had players twice as good with an era north of 6.

I think we, as a group, might overrate splits.    I've been very hesitant to use  Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Julian Harris at the BL level simply because his VL is 48.  He's faced 108 LHB so far this season and has produced this against them: 

.265

.318

.388

Maybe that's nothing special but it's not horrid either.

I've always felt that if you have great control, five good-to-great pitches (P1 and P2 in the 70's or 80's, and P3-P5 no worse than 50), and great velocity and GB/FB, that you can get away with mediocre splits (low-to-mid 50's) and be OK.

Harris hits the mark on everything but his set of pitches.  Which leads me to believe that his success vs LHB is due more to small sample size than anything else.

I don't hesitate to use mid-50 splits with excellent CONTROL/VEL/GB/PITCHES.    I'm very hesitant to use anthing below that regardless.   But I gave Harris a shot.  Could be SSS.  Or maybe we overrate splits.

http://www.wisjournal.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=3068230 - Nicholas Barker, very similar pitcher to Harris with a longer history.  I kept him sitting in AAA forever cause I didn't like that vL split, had to use him one season due to injury and he performed well enough to stay.  Obviously not a stud, but whatever he's doing against LH, he's still been decent overall.  Not going to front end a rotation like he could if he had better splits, but someone you can live with in the back of the rotation.

I don't know if we overrate splits, but I think maybe we're took quick to look at one number being too low as a posion pill.