Posted by peanutjets on 5/1/2012 10:32:00 PM (view original):

So there's no "potential"? All players develop on a predictable arch?

Somewhat predictable arc.    There is some variance but very few categories will wreck a player if he's 4-5 points off at his peak. 

Here's an example on how to predict a player's peak with zero advanced scouting:

General & Fielding Ratings Event Season Height Weight OV RA GL AS AA PC DU HE SP PA TP MK Current - 5-9 196 62 86 80 85 92 7 82 99 35 54 70 77 Projected - ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Spring Training 22 5-7 188 45 77 56 75 64 6 62 97 35 44 70 72 Spring Training 23 5-7 193 54 82 67 80 77 6 72 98 35 50 70 75 Spring Training 24 5-8 196 59 85 74 83 85 6 79 99 35 53 70 76 Spring Training 25 5-9 196 62 86 80 85 92 7 82 99 35 54 70 77 Batting & Pitching Ratings Event Season CN PW LH RH BE BR BU PP ST CT LH RH VE GB P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 Current - 19 47 45 46 52 59 20 38 20 0 4 4 9 36 67 0 0 0 0 Projected - ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Spring Training 22 14 41 33 35 44 42 14 36 18 0 4 4 9 33 63 0 0 0 0 Spring Training 23 18 44 39 41 49 49 19 37 19 0 4 4 9 34 64 0 0 0 0 Spring Training 24 19 46 43 45 51 55 20 38 20 0 4 4 9 35 66 0 0 0 0 Spring Training 25 19 47 45 46 52 59 20 38 20 0 4 4 9 36 67 0 0 0 0

The above is a 22 year old prospect with four years pro experience.  For each particular rating, you can see the progression from season to season. 

For example, look at range.  He improved 5 points from S22 to S23, another 3 points from S23 to S24, and 1 more point from S24 to S25.  Assuming he's had pretty consistent coaching and playing time over those seasons (as well as a consistent training budget, as range is a "physical" rating), and will continue to have similar coaching and PT going forward, it's safe to say that his range is pretty much done progressing.  Maybe one more point at best.

A second rating to look at might be glove.  He progressed 11 points, then 7 points, then 6 points.  Assuming similar progressin, he might have a couple more seasons where he progresses 4, then 3, then 2 and maybe 1 before he stops.  So you're probably looking at a final glove rating of around 90.

Repeat this process for all key ratings.  You can pretty much determine what his final peak is going to be across all ratings without ever knowing what the projected ratings that you would get from ADV are.

Granted, this prospect is a little easier to project because he has four seasons of progressions that you can track and project forward.  It's much harder for a second year guy because you have much less data to work with, and near impossible for a first year guy because all you have is his starting ratings.

Couldnt you just look at 5-10 players in your system with similar make up ratings and get a fairly accurate projection on ratings?

Posted by a_ersberg on 6/1/2012 10:55:00 AM (view original):
Couldnt you just look at 5-10 players in your system with similar make up ratings and get a fairly accurate projection on ratings?

I don't think so.  Their progression is still governed by an underlying "true" projection.  Two (or five, or ten) guys with similar makeup ratings may all progress differently.  You have to look at each one independently, and then at each particular rating individually.

Regardless of makeup?  That's one of the first things I look at. 

Makeup is a factor.  But it's one of a number of factors.  You cannot predict progression on makeup alone.

I look at makeup only to see the chance of a player progressing further than one with low makeup would given similar ratings, and also to make an assumption on how long he may remain at his peak before decline.  It also plays a small role in how they recover from injury during their careers.

But Makeup is only the chances of a particular player reaching his "projected" ratings, and if your ADV is at zero you can't trust projected's anyways, so it doesn't really help there.