That's a very simplistic version of how I determine my settings Ike. Remember the title is advice for new coaches. I'm just trying to maybe give them some solid, basic, generL, generic advice instead of getting real in-depth and confusing and losing them along the way. And I'm not disputing that a -5 causes more fouls than a neutral setting. In fact, not long ago, I argued and argued the very same issue with a coach that just would not accept that is how the game worked. It might not imitate real life (or it might), but I couldn't get through to him that this is how THIS game worked. No argument from me there, I'm in total agreement.
By the way, obviously each team has to be looked at individually to determine your defensive setting, but I still stand by my statement that against a team that doesn't shoot threes at all, you're better off sagging as opposed to not. Again, any setting can and will get beat occasionally, but I still think that sagging will produce a win more often than not. I might go along with the "winning in spite of instead of because of" argument except that I've won far too many games using that strategy to think that it was "in spite of". That's just way, way too many games to win by simply "out-talenting" my opposition when the settings were set at "in spite of not because of" mode. My teams are generally pretty good, but they're not THAT good. Not even close.
But, to each his own, I guess. Agree to disagree and all those other cliches. That what keeps the game interesting to me, that so many different strategies, styles, and settings can still generate wins. If the game was simply spoonfed to us (and unfortunately, every update that we get, although years apart by now, seems to head us that way) and there was a cookie cutter style feel to the game (think the FCP when it was ultra-high powered. Talk about titles needing asterisks next to them and there are a TON of them), I think you'd see a real mass exodus.