Dynamic Pricing Feedback Part 2 Topic

I was hoping to see a rise in price for guys like Joss.  Why should progressive teams have even less chance in the Tournament of Champions if Joss will be on every team?
12/18/2015 10:57 PM
Sounds great, tzentmeyer. A much-needed injection of freshness into Open Leagues.  
12/19/2015 4:59 AM
Would it be that bad of an idea to remove the minimum requirements once the season starts?

It's incredibly difficult/impossible to trade non-AAAs at the moment.


12/19/2015 8:15 AM
I wonder if every four months comes from the fact that it takes a little over two months to complete a league once it's filled which would allow two seasons to have the same pricing?

I'm not thrilled about excluding theme league play from the calculations. With the four-month window, that should be enough to allow a theme league to fill and have the season completed. IMHO, this should be addressed.

Based on usage, I would still expect to see the dead ball pitcher cookies go up in price but not at hyper speed. But, even if '08 Joss goes up by only $250-$500K that should impact how often he's used. And, with cookie speed hitters also likely to jump in price other offensive strategies will become more viable.

All in all, I view this as a good first step toward dynamic pricing for the entire site.

12/19/2015 8:30 AM
Great news, but I'll echo what many others have said in that I'm concerned about players who are too expensive to use in OLs coming down too much in price. Not because they aren't priced correctly, but just because they are too tough to fit into an 80M team in most cases. Eventually, after x number of iterations, we'll have 1921 Ruth and 1919 Ruth being similarly priced. Both are great, but 1921 is clearly superior and should be priced higher. Regardless, very happy to hear this will be implemented so quickly. Looking forward to Feb 9.
12/19/2015 8:50 AM

Looking forward to the changes.

I'm not worried about the high-priced players.  After three or four salary changes, we can see how that's affecting the high priced players, both in terms of salary and in usage.  If things get out of whack, they can make additional tweaks.  Let's see how this plays out.

12/19/2015 9:40 AM
Posted by tzentmeyer on 12/18/2015 3:27:00 PM (view original):
We have finalized how we would like to proceed with dynamic player pricing.
 
Here's our plan:
  • we will update player salaries based on draft usage every four months adhering to a set of announced dates (below). This provides a larger timeframe for player usage accumulation and provide owners more time to react and plan for salary changes.
  • draft usage will be weighted and broken down by 0-60 days prior, 61-120 days prior and 121-180 days prior.
  • player usage will be based on Open League usage only
  • we will maintain history of player salaries and make available in player profile along with some additional research pages
  • all unfilled Open League teams will be sent back to Draft Center at time of salary update
  • all unfilled Theme Leagues will remain untouched so theme commissioners can handle accordingly.
  • theme leagues will NOT have option to pick salary set to use.  With the reduction of processing every four months, we feel this is no longer required.
  • underlying AAA player quality will adjust with pricing changes

This decision was reached after evaluating the posts made in this thread. Thank you again to all of you that contributed.


In reviewing the salary formula and the player sim data, we did discover and/or correct a few data issues.  This will be reflected in the first pricing update. This included mapping the Houston Astros from the 2013/2014 seasons to the AL (which affects normalization data and salaries) and correcting some deadball era pitcher normalization numbers (which also affects salaries).
 

In general, though, we believe our salary formula is very, very solid. We looked at players in chunks based on salary range and compared their sim ratio results with actual ratios. The deviations were pretty consistent.

We took a few of the "why don't you improve the salary formula to match the sim results" posts very seriously.  We compared salary driven by sim results with salary driven by actual results.  This yielded many instances of players performing better than or similar to some of the existing "cookies" but used much more sparingly.  Dynamic pricing will impact cookie trends, no doubt.
 
Salary Release Dates:
  • Tuesday, February 9, 2016
  • Tuesday, June 7, 2016
  • Tuesday, October 11, 2016

We will set the next round of dates as we reach October. We will continue to evaluate throughout the year to make sure all is working as expected.
I have an good idea .. make a shortstop thats rated A/A worth some thing .. not something that makes over 50 errors .. every one would not use Howard Johnson because he plays 162 games and makes 0 errors ..I am fine with the price thing to stop the use of the same players but you need to look at why the same players are being used .. you have a major glitch in the game and that is a major one that needs to be fixed too....   so please fix this as well.... 
12/19/2015 11:14 AM
Posted by dahsdebater on 12/18/2015 3:54:00 PM (view original):
By removing the ability to use original pricing in themes and basing pricing exclusively on open leagues, I think you're exacerbating the problem I brought up in the original thread.  The most expensive players - players who are essentially unaffordable on competitive open league teams - are going to see a price decline because most people won't be drafting them in OLs.  That will make the balance off, however, for higher-cap leagues, particularly in the vicinity of $110 to $120 million where you expect to see some OL-type players and some '20 Ruth, '00 Pedro types as well.
I agree that the lowering of the prices of the most expensive players will be a problem, but not as big a problem as I originally thought. "23 and '21 Ruth, '04 Bonds, '01 Lajoie and other top players get used 15-20 times so their prices will not plummet. But I think they can fix the problem by creating an equation, maybe as simple as multiplying # of times used by salary, so that a Ruth iteration used 16 times at $15m salary is equal to a $5m player being used 48 times. The equation could be used only for players exceeding a certain salary, such as $5m, so cheap, unpopular players don't become virtually free. I also did not see an explanation of how much we should expect salaries to change. Is there a limit?

12/19/2015 2:29 PM
I thought admin had said in a previous post that the price fluctuation for player salaries would be limited to +/- 10% of base?  If that is true, I think some of the concerns being expressed about the high-salary players eventually being grossly under priced is unfounded.
12/19/2015 4:03 PM
Posted by teamhydro on 12/19/2015 4:03:00 PM (view original):
I thought admin had said in a previous post that the price fluctuation for player salaries would be limited to +/- 10% of base?  If that is true, I think some of the concerns being expressed about the high-salary players eventually being grossly under priced is unfounded.
How so? Not right away, sure, but let's do an example

1888 Silver King. Currently: 29.12M
After first 10% reduction: 26.21M
After second 10% reduction: 23.61M
After third 10% reduction: 21.25M
After fourth 10% reduction: 19.12M

So, by February 2017, you'll be able to get 703 IP of .88 WHIP for under 20M, which comes out to about 27,000 $/IP, which is about the same cost per inning as 1976 Mark Fidrych. Not the worst pitcher in the world, but with an ERC# of 2.55 as compared to King's 1.58.

Anyway you slice it, that's a problem and it's only a year away.
12/19/2015 4:38 PM
I believe the cap is 10% total. Not per occurrence..they would reset in 4 months.
12/19/2015 5:46 PM
What about career league players, once again?
12/19/2015 7:45 PM
Looks great, but I wish it were at least as often as every two months.  Once this gets underway and people get used to a couple rounds of it TZ, all, why don't you re-evaluate that frequency?

(So eager for the dog days of Ed Summers to pass....)

12/19/2015 9:18 PM (edited)
And now... how about eliminating the deadball pitchers' advantage, without blowing up progressive leagues....?
12/19/2015 9:19 PM
Posted by karcher on 12/19/2015 11:14:00 AM (view original):
Posted by tzentmeyer on 12/18/2015 3:27:00 PM (view original):
We have finalized how we would like to proceed with dynamic player pricing.
 
Here's our plan:
  • we will update player salaries based on draft usage every four months adhering to a set of announced dates (below). This provides a larger timeframe for player usage accumulation and provide owners more time to react and plan for salary changes.
  • draft usage will be weighted and broken down by 0-60 days prior, 61-120 days prior and 121-180 days prior.
  • player usage will be based on Open League usage only
  • we will maintain history of player salaries and make available in player profile along with some additional research pages
  • all unfilled Open League teams will be sent back to Draft Center at time of salary update
  • all unfilled Theme Leagues will remain untouched so theme commissioners can handle accordingly.
  • theme leagues will NOT have option to pick salary set to use.  With the reduction of processing every four months, we feel this is no longer required.
  • underlying AAA player quality will adjust with pricing changes

This decision was reached after evaluating the posts made in this thread. Thank you again to all of you that contributed.


In reviewing the salary formula and the player sim data, we did discover and/or correct a few data issues.  This will be reflected in the first pricing update. This included mapping the Houston Astros from the 2013/2014 seasons to the AL (which affects normalization data and salaries) and correcting some deadball era pitcher normalization numbers (which also affects salaries).
 

In general, though, we believe our salary formula is very, very solid. We looked at players in chunks based on salary range and compared their sim ratio results with actual ratios. The deviations were pretty consistent.

We took a few of the "why don't you improve the salary formula to match the sim results" posts very seriously.  We compared salary driven by sim results with salary driven by actual results.  This yielded many instances of players performing better than or similar to some of the existing "cookies" but used much more sparingly.  Dynamic pricing will impact cookie trends, no doubt.
 
Salary Release Dates:
  • Tuesday, February 9, 2016
  • Tuesday, June 7, 2016
  • Tuesday, October 11, 2016

We will set the next round of dates as we reach October. We will continue to evaluate throughout the year to make sure all is working as expected.
I have an good idea .. make a shortstop thats rated A/A worth some thing .. not something that makes over 50 errors .. every one would not use Howard Johnson because he plays 162 games and makes 0 errors ..I am fine with the price thing to stop the use of the same players but you need to look at why the same players are being used .. you have a major glitch in the game and that is a major one that needs to be fixed too....   so please fix this as well.... 
YEEESSSSS!!!!
12/19/2015 9:21 PM
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