Let’s look at a
real example. This is a guy I specifically chose to invest heavily in, and battle for. He wasn’t a bingo number, he wasn’t “randomly” assigned to me. I made my decision based on my evaluation of where he is likely to be, and when. By my evaluation, he is likely to fall just outside the group of players likely to land on the big board prior to their senior year. However, it is conceivable that he could finish his junior year with 90+ athleticism, rebounding, defense, and shot blocking, and *possibly* 90+ LP, as well. If all of those end up being true, he will probably be on the big board. Unlikely, given his low starting work ethic, but if he starts for 3 seasons, it’s conceivable.
So as a coach, I have a couple choices. I can ignore the slight risk, start him for 3 seasons, and maximize his potential to have a star upperclassman for both his junior and senior seasons, understanding that if I do that, I *may* risk losing the senior season.
I could be stupid, like Benis apparently thinks people are, and “remove all practice minutes” during his junior season so he regresses, guaranteeing he not only stays off the big board, but is so far out of range, I don’t have any worry at all. I mean, it’s not a very intelligent choice, if the idea is to win games by way of great players, but it’s a choice I could make.
I could choose to not start him during his sophomore season, despite his probably being the best option at his position. This would limit his work ethic advancement, and make it less likely that he progresses fast enough to consider EE. Again, not a great choice, IMO, if the idea is to utilize someone who can turn into a great player. But probably better than option 2.
What I will probably do is watch how fast his LP advances. The big wildcard is whether or not his green LP is a very high potential green. If it is very high, which I will have to evaluate based on what he gets this year, I may cap his LP growth at around 75 prior to his senior season. In that case, I would 0 out that single category, and work on his passing, or his free throws, or more study time. Whatever.
Those types of commodities can be high reward, but it comes with risk. That’s the whole idea behind a commodity game. A commodity game without volatility is FarmVille. Understanding the volatility and probabilities is a skill. It’s not bingo.
6/6/2018 3:08 PM (edited)