You made me curious.

I have EE data from 10 seasons.

In total, On The Fence players will leave ~45% of the time.

In those 10 seasons there were 22 inel SRs - all listed as on the fence. Only 2 of them went EE. Hilariously both were from the same season and the same person! They were 77 and 93 on big board. Meanwhile the #10 and #12 guys both stayed. Chapelhillne must have ****** someone off.

So while not a big sample size, these players are staying at a much higher rate than other on the fence players.

In Phelan #6 on the Big Board was a Inel SR and he stayed.

I have now counted 27 inel SRs listed on the big board with only TWO going EE.

System is broken.

Did you send in a ticket?

Posted by Trentonjoe on 10/8/2018 6:07:00 PM (view original):
Did you send in a ticket?

Sure I can. But we all know what the response will be.

Okay ticket submitted. I'll report back.

Response from CS

"Potential 5th-year seniors are always listed as "On the fence" because they follow different logic than normal early entry candidates. They don't make their decision to stay or go based on projected draft positioning"

Uh. Wut. WHYY?

Got a nice chuckle out of this one.

Another response from CS

"For a senior non-qualifier, there's a two-step decision. The first step is whether to stay or go based on the normal non-qualifier logic. The second step is whether to stay or go based on the draft early entry logic.

It's hard to provide an accurate wording to express that process, so we default to "On the fence". In reality, a player in that situation will most likely enter the draft if he's slotted as a high pick."

OH REALLY? Let's see if we can fact check this claim.

I have 15 seasons worth of EE data and here is what the numbers say.

There have been 100 'non SR inels' potential EEs ranked in the top 10 and only 6 have left early for a rate of 6%. There have been 244 'non SR inels' potential EEs and 33 have left early for a rate of 14%. Anyone want to take a wild guess on what SR inels are?

All 4 of the players who were SR inels and also ranked in the top 10 on the big board STAYED. Math is tough here but it's 100%

All 11 of the players who were SR inels and also ranked in the top 25 on the big board STAYED. Slightly tougher math but it's also 100%.

Does anyone out there think that SR inel's EE formula isn't broken?

W A I

Posted by Benis on 10/25/2018 8:07:00 PM (view original):
Does anyone out there think that SR inel's EE formula isn't broken?

Absolutely not! Come on Dennis

It's mostly accepted that if you're an ineligible, your GPA isn't very good and basketball would normally take a priority, especially if you're #1 in the draft. Take another year of basket weaving and home economic for the purpose of getting injured, yep that makes sense.

Response from CS

"Yes, you're right, there is an unintended issue in that particular scenario leading to 0% chance of leaving early. I'll make a note to fix that. Thanks for pointing it out."

I KNEW IT!

Well done, Benis.

I'm not quite following what your data implies about ineligibles while they are still sophomores/juniors. Do they also have an unrealistically low (though non-zero) chance of declaring, or are they essentially treated like any other sophomore/junior?

Posted by gdog13cavs on 10/30/2018 1:13:00 PM (view original):
Well done, Benis.

I'm not quite following what your data implies about ineligibles while they are still sophomores/juniors. Do they also have an unrealistically low (though non-zero) chance of declaring, or are they essentially treated like any other sophomore/junior?

No it appears to be working fine when they are So or Jr. Only when when they are Sr does it get messed up.

Thanks