All six of our teams are under .500...but somehow we had a pm schwarze. What are the odds of that?

Posted by odalisgagne on 1/16/2019 1:48:00 PM (view original):
All six of our teams are under .500...but somehow we had a pm schwarze. What are the odds of that?

Someone here is probably good enough in statistics to tell you that answer precisely.

It was mostly a rhetorical question...clearly it's the product of all six of my win %s. The odds are 1/64 if all teams were at .500...so I'm guessing <1%.

The one bright spot in a mostly miserable round 2.

Yeah, should be less than a 1.5% chance (not terrible). However, how much less would depend on how far below .500 your teams were. Given your current records, probably somewhere around 0.8%, though there's actually more factors (how good are the teams you play in a given cycle, to start).

Fun Fact: The owner ranking formula that is used to determine Tournament Pre-Rank is (so far, at least) more predictive of Round 2 win total and rank than Round 1 win total or rank is (regardless if it is the overall Round 1 rank, or just the regular season). However, it's not a strong correlation either way, but not irrelevant either.

My teams are a combined 58 and 87 in 1 run games and each team is under .500 in such games. At some point I'm hoping this will turn around before it's too late.

Ah, that reminds me to pull the advanced standings soon. Maybe I'll do that at the 2/3 mark

The last roster analysis (110M) will be posted by the weekend

This round is so tight. I could have anywhere from 2 to 6 playoff teams and still end up in 1st for regular season wins

A few observations now that we've gotten to the end of the regular season ...

--1887 Pete Browning on my 130M team was one of two players to top 100 SB in any of the leagues, with 116 against 45 caught. 72% is good enough to have made it worth it, I think. Bill Lange swiped 101 in the 100M.
--I also used that Browning in the 140M and he stole only 43 and was caught 35 times. That's, uh, quite a discrepancy.
--Browning led the 130M in hits with 247. I also had the hits leader in 70M, Chick Stahl, with 243.
--Did anyone notice that Larry Bowa ran off a 44-game hitting streak in the 70M? Larry Freaking Bowa?
--Only 5 players topped 20 HR in the 70M with a high of 27 (Gavvy Cravath). Harry Davis was the only hitter with a .500 SLG.
--'36 Ben Chapman won all three NL outfield GG in the 90M league. Mine had 31 + plays in CF, most of any OF. Teams with him at corner OF positions must have had amazing defense out there.
--There were two 30-HR hitters in the 90M. Four different Reggie Smith years cracked 20 and had 5 of the 22 seasons of 20+.
--Earl Webb led the 90M with 59 doubles for me, 8 shy of his record RL season.
--Only Hal Trosky managed 20 homers in the 100M league. Noticing a pattern here? '61 Maris managed all of 19 for odalis' Longball squad. Only 4 hitters even managed a .450 SLG in that league.
--There were 4 30-homer hitters in the 110M, led by '19 Ruth with 36. And 24 guys had at least .450 SLG.
--The 130M had only 2 20-homer seasons, with '19 Ruth leading at 29. 10 guys with .450 SLG but none topped .500
--The 140M had 4 30-homer seasons, all Ruths, and 11 with 20+. Also the round's only .600 SLG season, '23 Ruth with .601 for newarkwilder.
--And I know you all were wondering how well Elvis Andrus turned out for me ... well, he did post 28 + plays, 3rd best among SS. And he had the 23rd-best OPS among SS. Back to the drawing board.

Blowing 2 possible playoff spots in the last 10 days kind of stinks.

Round 2 is brutal. My playoff matchups:

vs. brianjw
vs. discodemo
vs. jfranco77
vs. rbow923
vs. jmissirlis

I've seen this story before... the only person with multiple playoff teams who didn't get a win in the first set (0-3).

So glad we got that 21-5 loss out of our system in the playoff opener ... it can only get better, right?

We lost two first-round series in 5 games. In our 6 losses, opponent Ed Walsh went 5-0 and our Ed Walsh went 0-6. Live by the Walsh die by the Walsh I guess.