Posted by Benis on 5/31/2019 2:43:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Sportsbulls on 5/31/2019 1:43:00 PM (view original):
I’ve already talked to top plenty about this argument haha, but I don’t agree because the 71 team will win 71% of the time and has a 71% chance.

Haha yeah me too. It's like saying there's a 50/50 chance it will rain today because either it will rain or it won't - so 50/50.

But in reality you're in the middle of the desert and it hasn't rained for weeks.

I like your analogy. It is an exact example of my point. Let's take the 30 days in April and compare it to a real life year of recruiting. In April, it's 71 percent likely to be rainy and 29 percent likely it won't. Fair to assume that? Some Aprils will be rainy all (or most of the) 30 days. Some Aprils will have little to no rain at all. But today, April 1st, it either rains or it don't. 50/50. A one time situation. Throughout the 30 days, maybe the 71/29 balances out. But each day is 50/50. 30 one-day situations that create a total, but with each day being independent itself. And no effect on the other days.

Recruiting for a year. Every 71/29 battle you have is independent. If you have 20 all year long, maybe it balances out, maybe it don't. Either way, each one of those 20 will be 50/50 independently. But there's no weight from previous battles won or lost, that will impact this. That's why i view it this way.

Also, keep in mind that i COMPLETELY understand the argument against this. I'm not stupid. I get how the odds work. Or how they're supposed to work. But i just don't feel like it applies to in my independent battle. (Honestly, i think it works like..... if there's one hundred 71/29 battles across HD in a given season, the engine would give the recruit to 71 leading teams, and 29 teams that didn't lead. Which would make the odds accurate. But i'm only 1 coach and I'm not affiliated with the other 99. So MY chance was 50/50 to help create the 71/29 big picture across all similar battles. Not the best example, but it paints the picture of what I'm trying to say)

Also benis, YOU in particular, are one of the people that i figured would see it this way as well. You discuss losing dice rolls all the time when leading. And you mention it at a pace that you lose more of your 71/29 battles. You're also a coach i think of most that wins a lot of battles at 29% because you point them out to me. So i figured you off all coaches would understand my viewpoint.

Posted by topdogggbm on 5/31/2019 5:44:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 5/31/2019 2:43:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Sportsbulls on 5/31/2019 1:43:00 PM (view original):
I’ve already talked to top plenty about this argument haha, but I don’t agree because the 71 team will win 71% of the time and has a 71% chance.

Haha yeah me too. It's like saying there's a 50/50 chance it will rain today because either it will rain or it won't - so 50/50.

But in reality you're in the middle of the desert and it hasn't rained for weeks.

I like your analogy. It is an exact example of my point. Let's take the 30 days in April and compare it to a real life year of recruiting. In April, it's 71 percent likely to be rainy and 29 percent likely it won't. Fair to assume that? Some Aprils will be rainy all (or most of the) 30 days. Some Aprils will have little to no rain at all. But today, April 1st, it either rains or it don't. 50/50. A one time situation. Throughout the 30 days, maybe the 71/29 balances out. But each day is 50/50. 30 one-day situations that create a total, but with each day being independent itself. And no effect on the other days.

Recruiting for a year. Every 71/29 battle you have is independent. If you have 20 all year long, maybe it balances out, maybe it don't. Either way, each one of those 20 will be 50/50 independently. But there's no weight from previous battles won or lost, that will impact this. That's why i view it this way.

Also, keep in mind that i COMPLETELY understand the argument against this. I'm not stupid. I get how the odds work. Or how they're supposed to work. But i just don't feel like it applies to in my independent battle. (Honestly, i think it works like..... if there's one hundred 71/29 battles across HD in a given season, the engine would give the recruit to 71 leading teams, and 29 teams that didn't lead. Which would make the odds accurate. But i'm only 1 coach and I'm not affiliated with the other 99. So MY chance was 50/50 to help create the 71/29 big picture across all similar battles. Not the best example, but it paints the picture of what I'm trying to say)

Also benis, YOU in particular, are one of the people that i figured would see it this way as well. You discuss losing dice rolls all the time when leading. And you mention it at a pace that you lose more of your 71/29 battles. You're also a coach i think of most that wins a lot of battles at 29% because you point them out to me. So i figured you off all coaches would understand my viewpoint.

Let's play poker sometime.

Let’s test your claim. If you get into signing range at high for a player you really want, do you just stop until your rival beats you back to moderate? Or do you do more, to try to get a better shake? If you keep extending effort for a player you’re trying to win, doesn’t that mean you think your individual battle is something other than 50/50?

What you’re talking about is the effects of a small sample size, and limited perspective. It doesn’t make the odds for a 71-29 battle 50/50 (they’re not) but it does affect how a person approaches battling, for sure.

Posted by topdogggbm on 5/31/2019 5:44:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 5/31/2019 2:43:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Sportsbulls on 5/31/2019 1:43:00 PM (view original):
I’ve already talked to top plenty about this argument haha, but I don’t agree because the 71 team will win 71% of the time and has a 71% chance.

Haha yeah me too. It's like saying there's a 50/50 chance it will rain today because either it will rain or it won't - so 50/50.

But in reality you're in the middle of the desert and it hasn't rained for weeks.

I like your analogy. It is an exact example of my point. Let's take the 30 days in April and compare it to a real life year of recruiting. In April, it's 71 percent likely to be rainy and 29 percent likely it won't. Fair to assume that? Some Aprils will be rainy all (or most of the) 30 days. Some Aprils will have little to no rain at all. But today, April 1st, it either rains or it don't. 50/50. A one time situation. Throughout the 30 days, maybe the 71/29 balances out. But each day is 50/50. 30 one-day situations that create a total, but with each day being independent itself. And no effect on the other days.

Recruiting for a year. Every 71/29 battle you have is independent. If you have 20 all year long, maybe it balances out, maybe it don't. Either way, each one of those 20 will be 50/50 independently. But there's no weight from previous battles won or lost, that will impact this. That's why i view it this way.

Also, keep in mind that i COMPLETELY understand the argument against this. I'm not stupid. I get how the odds work. Or how they're supposed to work. But i just don't feel like it applies to in my independent battle. (Honestly, i think it works like..... if there's one hundred 71/29 battles across HD in a given season, the engine would give the recruit to 71 leading teams, and 29 teams that didn't lead. Which would make the odds accurate. But i'm only 1 coach and I'm not affiliated with the other 99. So MY chance was 50/50 to help create the 71/29 big picture across all similar battles. Not the best example, but it paints the picture of what I'm trying to say)

Also benis, YOU in particular, are one of the people that i figured would see it this way as well. You discuss losing dice rolls all the time when leading. And you mention it at a pace that you lose more of your 71/29 battles. You're also a coach i think of most that wins a lot of battles at 29% because you point them out to me. So i figured you off all coaches would understand my viewpoint.

I actually made a thread one time when I won a 17% 3 way roll. It was ridiculous haha.

But yes, I get what you're saying (I think) that over time it all will even out. Win some lose some.

Posted by shoe3 on 5/31/2019 6:00:00 PM (view original):
Let’s test your claim. If you get into signing range at high for a player you really want, do you just stop until your rival beats you back to moderate? Or do you do more, to try to get a better shake? If you keep extending effort for a player you’re trying to win, doesn’t that mean you think your individual battle is something other than 50/50?

What you’re talking about is the effects of a small sample size, and limited perspective. It doesn’t make the odds for a 71-29 battle 50/50 (they’re not) but it does affect how a person approaches battling, for sure.

That's a pretty good post. Of course i continue my effort. But i guess what i'm getting at is that the HD odds have not proven to be accurate by any means, in my time playing. And we never have discussions here about how accurate they are for everybody. All discussions are based on "i can't believe i lost this roll again and again and again when i led".

If you tell me that i have an 80% chance to win my next scratch off, i'm stopping in the middle of dinner and i'm sprinting to the store while running every stop sign to buy one. If you tell me that i have an 80% chance to sign a recruit in HD, i tell you "that's nice", while getting two back up players unlocked.

So my "discomfort" with 80% applies to the HD engine. And not real life, or Poker as kcsundevil mentioned.

Posted by Benis on 5/31/2019 7:22:00 PM (view original):

Posted by topdogggbm on 5/31/2019 5:44:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 5/31/2019 2:43:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Sportsbulls on 5/31/2019 1:43:00 PM (view original):
I’ve already talked to top plenty about this argument haha, but I don’t agree because the 71 team will win 71% of the time and has a 71% chance.

Haha yeah me too. It's like saying there's a 50/50 chance it will rain today because either it will rain or it won't - so 50/50.

But in reality you're in the middle of the desert and it hasn't rained for weeks.

I like your analogy. It is an exact example of my point. Let's take the 30 days in April and compare it to a real life year of recruiting. In April, it's 71 percent likely to be rainy and 29 percent likely it won't. Fair to assume that? Some Aprils will be rainy all (or most of the) 30 days. Some Aprils will have little to no rain at all. But today, April 1st, it either rains or it don't. 50/50. A one time situation. Throughout the 30 days, maybe the 71/29 balances out. But each day is 50/50. 30 one-day situations that create a total, but with each day being independent itself. And no effect on the other days.

Recruiting for a year. Every 71/29 battle you have is independent. If you have 20 all year long, maybe it balances out, maybe it don't. Either way, each one of those 20 will be 50/50 independently. But there's no weight from previous battles won or lost, that will impact this. That's why i view it this way.

Also, keep in mind that i COMPLETELY understand the argument against this. I'm not stupid. I get how the odds work. Or how they're supposed to work. But i just don't feel like it applies to in my independent battle. (Honestly, i think it works like..... if there's one hundred 71/29 battles across HD in a given season, the engine would give the recruit to 71 leading teams, and 29 teams that didn't lead. Which would make the odds accurate. But i'm only 1 coach and I'm not affiliated with the other 99. So MY chance was 50/50 to help create the 71/29 big picture across all similar battles. Not the best example, but it paints the picture of what I'm trying to say)

Also benis, YOU in particular, are one of the people that i figured would see it this way as well. You discuss losing dice rolls all the time when leading. And you mention it at a pace that you lose more of your 71/29 battles. You're also a coach i think of most that wins a lot of battles at 29% because you point them out to me. So i figured you off all coaches would understand my viewpoint.

I actually made a thread one time when I won a 17% 3 way roll. It was ridiculous haha.

But yes, I get what you're saying (I think) that over time it all will even out. Win some lose some.

I remember that thread. You were at NMSU and you got like a 5* with like 16%/42%/42%. And you said, "it feels good to be a gangsta"

Posted by topdogggbm on 5/31/2019 7:25:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 5/31/2019 7:22:00 PM (view original):

Posted by topdogggbm on 5/31/2019 5:44:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 5/31/2019 2:43:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Sportsbulls on 5/31/2019 1:43:00 PM (view original):
I’ve already talked to top plenty about this argument haha, but I don’t agree because the 71 team will win 71% of the time and has a 71% chance.

Haha yeah me too. It's like saying there's a 50/50 chance it will rain today because either it will rain or it won't - so 50/50.

But in reality you're in the middle of the desert and it hasn't rained for weeks.

I like your analogy. It is an exact example of my point. Let's take the 30 days in April and compare it to a real life year of recruiting. In April, it's 71 percent likely to be rainy and 29 percent likely it won't. Fair to assume that? Some Aprils will be rainy all (or most of the) 30 days. Some Aprils will have little to no rain at all. But today, April 1st, it either rains or it don't. 50/50. A one time situation. Throughout the 30 days, maybe the 71/29 balances out. But each day is 50/50. 30 one-day situations that create a total, but with each day being independent itself. And no effect on the other days.

Recruiting for a year. Every 71/29 battle you have is independent. If you have 20 all year long, maybe it balances out, maybe it don't. Either way, each one of those 20 will be 50/50 independently. But there's no weight from previous battles won or lost, that will impact this. That's why i view it this way.

Also, keep in mind that i COMPLETELY understand the argument against this. I'm not stupid. I get how the odds work. Or how they're supposed to work. But i just don't feel like it applies to in my independent battle. (Honestly, i think it works like..... if there's one hundred 71/29 battles across HD in a given season, the engine would give the recruit to 71 leading teams, and 29 teams that didn't lead. Which would make the odds accurate. But i'm only 1 coach and I'm not affiliated with the other 99. So MY chance was 50/50 to help create the 71/29 big picture across all similar battles. Not the best example, but it paints the picture of what I'm trying to say)

Also benis, YOU in particular, are one of the people that i figured would see it this way as well. You discuss losing dice rolls all the time when leading. And you mention it at a pace that you lose more of your 71/29 battles. You're also a coach i think of most that wins a lot of battles at 29% because you point them out to me. So i figured you off all coaches would understand my viewpoint.

I actually made a thread one time when I won a 17% 3 way roll. It was ridiculous haha.

But yes, I get what you're saying (I think) that over time it all will even out. Win some lose some.

I remember that thread. You were at NMSU and you got like a 5* with like 16%/42%/42%. And you said, "it feels good to be a gangsta"

No, I said DAMN it feels good to be a gangsta. I think that guy turned out to be the number 1 overall pick. Thanks seble!

Posted by topdogggbm on 5/31/2019 5:44:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 5/31/2019 2:43:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Sportsbulls on 5/31/2019 1:43:00 PM (view original):
I’ve already talked to top plenty about this argument haha, but I don’t agree because the 71 team will win 71% of the time and has a 71% chance.

Haha yeah me too. It's like saying there's a 50/50 chance it will rain today because either it will rain or it won't - so 50/50.

But in reality you're in the middle of the desert and it hasn't rained for weeks.

I like your analogy. It is an exact example of my point. Let's take the 30 days in April and compare it to a real life year of recruiting. In April, it's 71 percent likely to be rainy and 29 percent likely it won't. Fair to assume that? Some Aprils will be rainy all (or most of the) 30 days. Some Aprils will have little to no rain at all. But today, April 1st, it either rains or it don't. 50/50. A one time situation. Throughout the 30 days, maybe the 71/29 balances out. But each day is 50/50. 30 one-day situations that create a total, but with each day being independent itself. And no effect on the other days.

Recruiting for a year. Every 71/29 battle you have is independent. If you have 20 all year long, maybe it balances out, maybe it don't. Either way, each one of those 20 will be 50/50 independently. But there's no weight from previous battles won or lost, that will impact this. That's why i view it this way.

Also, keep in mind that i COMPLETELY understand the argument against this. I'm not stupid. I get how the odds work. Or how they're supposed to work. But i just don't feel like it applies to in my independent battle. (Honestly, i think it works like..... if there's one hundred 71/29 battles across HD in a given season, the engine would give the recruit to 71 leading teams, and 29 teams that didn't lead. Which would make the odds accurate. But i'm only 1 coach and I'm not affiliated with the other 99. So MY chance was 50/50 to help create the 71/29 big picture across all similar battles. Not the best example, but it paints the picture of what I'm trying to say)

Also benis, YOU in particular, are one of the people that i figured would see it this way as well. You discuss losing dice rolls all the time when leading. And you mention it at a pace that you lose more of your 71/29 battles. You're also a coach i think of most that wins a lot of battles at 29% because you point them out to me. So i figured you off all coaches would understand my viewpoint.

this really brightens my day - i always thought one such as myself should be a living god, but sadly, that just hasn't been the case. but i always hold out hope that in 5 seconds, i will magically become a living god. i usually assume the odds of that are 0%, but you have raised my spirits! by the time i hit post, there's a 50% chance i will finally become the living god i was always meant to be. and then, i shall teleport to your house and strike thee down for your blasphemy against numbers, which are the one true god (except for me in 5 seconds, then there will be 2 true gods, and we can battle it out for the iron throne, which i am happy to learn has a 50% chance of being real).

Posted by shoe3 on 5/31/2019 12:33:00 PM (view original):
Contrary to the misinformation some folks keep spreading on the forums, early entries are not random, and it is indeed possible to plan for them, if you choose. It’s also possible to field a competitive team of 8-9 players, if you choose.

When you recruit the “best of the best”, in real life and in this simulation, many of those players will leave your team before completing their term. That’s part of the price you need to consider when you recruit. Evaluating a player’s likelihood of leaving early is an important skill. Players who insist on treating it as “luck” are depending on “luck” to be successful. Again, it’s a choice.

Loading up all your attention points, and spending all your cash for visits on your top targets is a valid way to play, and teams can be very successful doing that, understanding that some years they may have a short bench, and some years they may need to completely rebuild. It’s one way to do it, but it’s not the only, nor necessarily the best way to do it. Choose your own adventure.

shoe is right. like many things in this game (such as the simulation of each game), EEs do have a random factor, but the % chance that random factor in generated against is calculable and controllable. sure, you'll lose a guy who should stay, and you'll keep a guy who should leave, but if in general you aren't trying to adjust those odds in your favor - and especially if you aren't even trying to understand the odds, for planning purposes - you are doing yourself a major disservice.

interestingly, planning for draft picks has been an important part of d1 since this game existed. 10 years ago people had similar conversations about if its possible to plan for them or to influence them. it is possible and it always has been.

Posted by gillispie1 on 5/31/2019 10:18:00 PM (view original):

Posted by topdogggbm on 5/31/2019 5:44:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 5/31/2019 2:43:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Sportsbulls on 5/31/2019 1:43:00 PM (view original):
I’ve already talked to top plenty about this argument haha, but I don’t agree because the 71 team will win 71% of the time and has a 71% chance.

Haha yeah me too. It's like saying there's a 50/50 chance it will rain today because either it will rain or it won't - so 50/50.

But in reality you're in the middle of the desert and it hasn't rained for weeks.

I like your analogy. It is an exact example of my point. Let's take the 30 days in April and compare it to a real life year of recruiting. In April, it's 71 percent likely to be rainy and 29 percent likely it won't. Fair to assume that? Some Aprils will be rainy all (or most of the) 30 days. Some Aprils will have little to no rain at all. But today, April 1st, it either rains or it don't. 50/50. A one time situation. Throughout the 30 days, maybe the 71/29 balances out. But each day is 50/50. 30 one-day situations that create a total, but with each day being independent itself. And no effect on the other days.

Recruiting for a year. Every 71/29 battle you have is independent. If you have 20 all year long, maybe it balances out, maybe it don't. Either way, each one of those 20 will be 50/50 independently. But there's no weight from previous battles won or lost, that will impact this. That's why i view it this way.

Also, keep in mind that i COMPLETELY understand the argument against this. I'm not stupid. I get how the odds work. Or how they're supposed to work. But i just don't feel like it applies to in my independent battle. (Honestly, i think it works like..... if there's one hundred 71/29 battles across HD in a given season, the engine would give the recruit to 71 leading teams, and 29 teams that didn't lead. Which would make the odds accurate. But i'm only 1 coach and I'm not affiliated with the other 99. So MY chance was 50/50 to help create the 71/29 big picture across all similar battles. Not the best example, but it paints the picture of what I'm trying to say)

Also benis, YOU in particular, are one of the people that i figured would see it this way as well. You discuss losing dice rolls all the time when leading. And you mention it at a pace that you lose more of your 71/29 battles. You're also a coach i think of most that wins a lot of battles at 29% because you point them out to me. So i figured you off all coaches would understand my viewpoint.

this really brightens my day - i always thought one such as myself should be a living god, but sadly, that just hasn't been the case. but i always hold out hope that in 5 seconds, i will magically become a living god. i usually assume the odds of that are 0%, but you have raised my spirits! by the time i hit post, there's a 50% chance i will finally become the living god i was always meant to be. and then, i shall teleport to your house and strike thee down for your blasphemy against numbers, which are the one true god (except for me in 5 seconds, then there will be 2 true gods, and we can battle it out for the iron throne, which i am happy to learn has a 50% chance of being real).

Only problem with this, is that it's not a real possibility. You have no chance of becoming a god. But you do have a chance to lose 9 dice rolls in a row. It happens here. And when it does, you're not gonna win the next 25 to right the ship. That's all I'm getting at. The odds in this game are ****** up. I'm not the first to say that.

You guys can take my comment and run wherever you want with it, i don't care. That's the main reason i said it. If it makes everyone feel better, maybe i shouldn't use actual numbers like 50/50. And i should say "dice rolls could go either way". To me, it's the same comment. To others, it's blasphemy. I know all the stat geeks get ruffled up if you try to insult their perfect HD game. I like that you at least had a little fun with it, unlike your boy shoe who never cracks a smile in life and is the forum patrol officer, cleaning up all wrong opinions (is there such a thing?) of people who would enjoy seeing some things changed in the game. Heaven forbid.

Benis sure did a number on you, dog. Pity.

There is a 50/50 chance that Top is my new forum hero.

There is also a 50/50 chance that Scarlett Johansson will come to my house, cook me a steak dinner naked, cover herself in Whip Cream, proceed to a night of passion, and then cut me a check for $250k the next morning.

I am going to ask her, it's yes or no, therefore, 50/50.

Id skip the dinner part