My point would not be whether your SP1 is "a stud" or not. It's whether he's good enough to beat your "true stud" head to head once and twice in a five game series.

No one wants to say it, but IMO regardless of "how good" your team is, things have to go right - not go wrong - for you to win a series.

That's what we mean when we say "short sample size." You could always say the other guys oh they just got lucky. The Astros could say that about the Nationals. I seem to remember the Cleveland Indians being one inning away from a series a few times. Does anyone even remember the Texas Rangers should have won one?

Posted by tlowster on 2/10/2020 2:14:00 PM (view original):
This could explain my dismal playoff record. I don't think I have ever had a true ace SP. What is considered an ACE? Would either of the below guys be considered an ace?

Player Profile: Gabriel Rosado - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports
Player Profile: Keith O'Brien - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

O'Brien is a 1A. He is a 1 but needs to be managed properly. Only reason I don't call him a true 1 or ace is because I can't see him getting passed the 5th or 6th inning. So he could be pitching a shutout or a no hitter and then here comes the bullpen to blow another important game.

Rosado is a 3. Only having 3 pitches and that third one being below 40 is really going to hurt. Things seem to have to be just right for 3 pitch guys to thrive.

I had guys like Alex Beltran that could make the ball dance with 3 pitches. But then I have guys like Sherm Lobstien that I thought would be a serviceable 5 guy but will probably end up staying in the minors for me this season only as an emergency callup.

I'm a perfectionist when it comes to my pitching though. I don't even consider Johan Butcher a true Ace.

I won my WS with 2 1/2 SPs. The first was a workhorse who regularly gave me 240+ innings, but "only" had three pitches. He won two Cys. The second had his best season ever, 22-0 but only 200 innings. Didn't lose till the ALCS. Won the Cy that season. He couldn't go past six. The third was a mediocre guy who for whatever reason was much better at home than on the road, so I only used him for home starts. My SP4 and SP5 got any road starts when the big two weren't rested. Won one of those games in a shootout. Everything had to go right, and somehow it did.

Posted by damag on 2/11/2020 12:30:00 PM (view original):
I won my WS with 2 1/2 SPs. The first was a workhorse who regularly gave me 240+ innings, but "only" had three pitches. He won two Cys. The second had his best season ever, 22-0 but only 200 innings. Didn't lose till the ALCS. Won the Cy that season. He couldn't go past six. The third was a mediocre guy who for whatever reason was much better at home than on the road, so I only used him for home starts. My SP4 and SP5 got any road starts when the big two weren't rested. Won one of those games in a shootout. Everything had to go right, and somehow it did.

Can you link em Damag? I'm curious about the first guy.


Edit: Actually I didn't have an ace the year I won the world series either. I had the aforementioned Beltran (This was all in season 36 if anyone wants to follow along the ratings)

Homer Davis was my 1 but is probably a 2. The control really helped in my pitchers park in SD.
Jair Sanchez was my 3rd starter for home (a 2 pitcher at home but anywhere that isn't a pitchers park the GB/FB 0 got him destroyed)
and Danny Johnson was my 3rd starter at home which is a true #3.

If you looked at my squad and BJB's Alpacas in the final it shouldn't have even been close. He had 3 guys that were legit aces. But sometimes it all comes together in that SSS and you get your 4 wins and your WS.

#1 Luck, or lack thereof.

Posted by hockey1984 on 2/9/2020 2:05:00 PM (view original):

Posted by opie100 on 2/8/2020 3:17:00 PM (view original):
Leave out luck. I’ll start with...

Good 4/5 starters (that don’t play in playoffs).

What else? YOLO share your playoff secrets...

Also your first point is bang on which is so frustrating.

you need 4-5 good to competent starters to get to the playoffs.

you need 2 aces to win the playoffs.

but if you have 2 aces with garbage 3-5 chances are you won’t make the playoffs.

the eternal struggle.

There is a guy in one of my leagues that limps into the playoffs each year. Always has 2-3 great SPs, but the rest of the team is average. He won like 4 WS in a row with that formula. Once he got in the playoffs, he was a juggernaut with those SPs.

I have two playoff caliber teams right now. One has 5 solid SPs with some really good hitting and fielding and one has 3 Cy Young caliber players. The second team is now making their third consecutive trip to the post season and is currently the #1 seed and the defending WS champ. The first team has made it in 5 straight seasons but has only won 2 playoff series both in one season - a trip to the NLCS.

It is all about those 2-3 pitchers being elite IMO. Otherwise it is luck.

Some teams you're competing against might not look so intimidating in the standings come playoffs because they have more than a few low DUR/STA guys that only get 400 PA or 100 IP . Come playoff time their ~90 win team is actually more like a 100+ win team if those players had higher DUR/STA.

There are tons of ways to win in this game. My league just had a team win back to back with only one player in the two years drive in over 100 runs. The year before a team in Tucson mashed their way to a title.

Luck may not be the only factor but it certainly helps. One of my teams probably didn't deserve to win but they got hot at the right time. I guess having a good pitching staff may help create luck but a well timed hot streak works wonders.

9 consecutive post-seasons as a #1 or #2 seed with these 3 in the rotation with 2 WS appearances, 1 win and 1 loss (non-competitive 4-1 series loss).
Irv Giolito - 5 Cy Youngs, 5x All-Star - along with some major injuries, including a nice long one that happened on the last day of the regular season so out for the playoffs
Tim Kelly - 3 Cy Youngs, 10x All-Star
Josias Pena - 3x All-Star

And for good measure, gave up an absolute haul to have Trayvon Rollins the past 2 post-seasons with no luck (lost the WS this past season)
Always with a Top 3 Offense and well above average defense and bullpen.
No one can convince me otherwise that it is anything other than random dice rolls when it comes to the playoffs!
But every year that goes by I am absolutely grateful I got that 1 WS win and how lucky I was to even get Giolito and Kelly in the first place!

Posted by mtanton07 on 2/13/2020 4:50:00 PM (view original):
9 consecutive post-seasons as a #1 or #2 seed with these 3 in the rotation with 2 WS appearances, 1 win and 1 loss (non-competitive 4-1 series loss).
Irv Giolito - 5 Cy Youngs, 5x All-Star - along with some major injuries, including a nice long one that happened on the last day of the regular season so out for the playoffs
Tim Kelly - 3 Cy Youngs, 10x All-Star
Josias Pena - 3x All-Star

And for good measure, gave up an absolute haul to have Trayvon Rollins the past 2 post-seasons with no luck (lost the WS this past season)
Always with a Top 3 Offense and well above average defense and bullpen.
No one can convince me otherwise that it is anything other than random dice rolls when it comes to the playoffs!
But every year that goes by I am absolutely grateful I got that 1 WS win and how lucky I was to even get Giolito and Kelly in the first place!

"No one can convince me otherwise that it is anything other than random dice rolls when it comes to the playoffs!"

Lol

Posted by mtanton07 on 2/13/2020 4:50:00 PM (view original):
9 consecutive post-seasons as a #1 or #2 seed with these 3 in the rotation with 2 WS appearances, 1 win and 1 loss (non-competitive 4-1 series loss).
Irv Giolito - 5 Cy Youngs, 5x All-Star - along with some major injuries, including a nice long one that happened on the last day of the regular season so out for the playoffs
Tim Kelly - 3 Cy Youngs, 10x All-Star
Josias Pena - 3x All-Star

And for good measure, gave up an absolute haul to have Trayvon Rollins the past 2 post-seasons with no luck (lost the WS this past season)
Always with a Top 3 Offense and well above average defense and bullpen.
No one can convince me otherwise that it is anything other than random dice rolls when it comes to the playoffs!
But every year that goes by I am absolutely grateful I got that 1 WS win and how lucky I was to even get Giolito and Kelly in the first place!

So In the regular season Columbus has a rotation of those 3 and wins 120 games a season?

i’d **** my pants if I had even one of those guys on my squad.

Looks like there was/is another AL team who did a better job tanking and has possibly better pitching then his team.

Franchise Profile: Red Roses - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

That world needs a little work with 2 teams winning 115+ in the same league.

Its strange, in my leagues I've never even seen players with VsR and VsL in the high 90's generated.