Posted by mullycj on 4/21/2020 10:09:00 AM (view original):
Shoe - I don't think that's extraordinary. The last season I tracked while at Wisconsin their were only 16 seniors on the top 60.

16 out of 60 may not be extraordinary, but 20 out of 100 is definitely on the lean side. 20/100 means the system needs 40 yes rolls out of the last 80 spots to prevent going off the board.

A lot depends on how many graduating seniors there were in those last 40 spots. If there were a dozen or more, it’s a pretty average year, and there probably aren’t any off the board departures. If only a handful, odds get better that the draft goes off the board.

Yeah its been 10 seasons since I closely watched the Big Board. Sad to say.

Posted by Benis on 4/21/2020 10:25:00 AM (view original):

Posted by mullycj on 4/21/2020 10:07:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 4/20/2020 4:50:00 PM (view original):
" but with the title winner's guys 10 spots higher"

This is way too high. The most I've seen is a jump of about 5. I've seen some title winners have players who stayed flat too. I've seen some teams with 1st round exits have players that moved up a couple spots on the big board. Honestly I haven't studied it enough but I haven't made any sense of it yet.

To cubcub-
A junior ranked 100th would have about a 35% chance of leaving and soph ranked 100th would have about a 10% chance.

Of what I've tracked, I've seen 18 non seniors ranked #1 with only 1 of them ever staying. If you expand to players ranked 1-5, it's 62/65 left early for ~95%.

Benis - I don't think you can say that based on his info. You also need to know is he is Likely staying, fence, likely leaving. That determines the % chance even more than their relative position.

School year also does not matter. Its 2 things : 1) Status (as above) and 2) # on the big board.

Cub - If you can also give me how many players are eligible to leave early I can give you what my excel file would calculate.

"school year does not matter"

A sophomore listed at 50 has a MUCH lower chance of leaving early as a Junior ranked at 50. A Likely going Sophomore has a lower chance of leaving than a Likely Going Junior.

If you just look at the top 17 ranked players where both Soph and Juniors are called Likely Going, the juniors have a ~91% chance of leaving while Soph is 87%. Not huge so maybe the sample size is too small but seems sizable to me (216 juniors and 89 sophs)

The craziest thing that no one realizes is that a Soph ranked 50th has same chance of leaving a Soph ranked 90th. A junior ranked 50th has the same chance of leaving as a junior ranked 90th.

Well this is one of the times I will disagree with you.

A players ratings, class, and outlook determine where he is placed on the Big Board. At THAT point the ONLY thing that determines his probability is his # on the board and Outlook.

So a likely going SO at 50 would have the exact same chance of leaving as a likely going JR at 50 because his "class" was already taken into account to get him into the #50 slot on the board.

PS - and yeah I agree that +95% of "staying" are FR unless they somehow redshirted.

For example in Smith world :
Leon Porter ranked #2 - Soph - likely going - has over 97% chance of leaving while
Ronald Swanson ranked #27 - Junior - likely going - has ~78% chance of leaving
The Junior isnt more apt to go because he is a JR. He is LESS likely to go because he is ranked 25 spots lower than Porter.

This is sort of like height and weight on the players stats.
A 6'6" player with a 85 rebounding isn't going to get more rebounds than a 6'1" player with 85 rebounding because the height is already considered in the rating. On the big board the class is already considered in the position.

Jeeebus ….that's almost gillispie length....

"PS - and yeah I agree that +95% of "staying" are FR unless they somehow redshirted."

I have a list of 141 players who were listed as Staying. All are Freshmen. It's not possible for a non freshman to be listed as Staying.

"So a likely going SO at 50 would have the exact same chance of leaving as a likely going JR at 50 because his "class" was already taken into account to get him into the #50 slot on the board."

Nope, this isn't correct. A junior ranked between 28 and 100 are listed as On The Fence. A Soph ranked 28-100 is listed as Likely Staying. Those are the cut offs.

So neither a Jr or Soph at #50 can be listed as likely going. If you are looking at the positions on the big board, a Soph at 50 has about a 10% chance to leave early while a JR at 50 has about 40%.

"I have a list of 141 players who were listed as Staying. All are Freshmen. It's not possible for a non freshman to be listed as Staying."
Yeah, I forgot a RS freshmen is still a freshmen the next season.

"Nope, this isn't correct. A junior ranked between 28 and 100 are listed as On The Fence. A Soph ranked 28-100 is listed as Likely Staying. Those are the cut offs."
I know this. THIS ^^^^ . ... is why I say the player's class is already taken into account when determining is spot on the board.

"If you are looking at the positions on the big board, a Soph at 50 has about a 10% chance to leave early while a JR at 50 has about 40%."
Disagree. IF they are BOTH listed at 50 and "on the fence" then they have the same chance of going. The class is already factored into their board spot.

We can continue this via sitemail if you want. Dont know if we are saying the same thing from opposite directions or not.

Strange as it may seem, Benis is mostly right. You’ll never see any soph at #50 and “likely going”. Sophs have to be in the top 17 to get that outlook classification. Juniors have to be in the top ~28 (i forget exactly where). I think freshmen can technically get there, but it’s very rare, because they basically have to be a top 10 projected pick, which usually doesn’t happen.

The ratings determine where he is on the big board. I guess IQ might conceivably play a small role, so technically class may appear to have a *small* effect. (I’ve never bothered to ask or look that hard into the “knowledge base”, so this is just speculation on my part). His position on the BB and his class determine his outlook, and probability for leaving.

Posted by mullycj on 4/21/2020 11:39:00 AM (view original):
Yeah its been 10 seasons since I closely watched the Big Board. Sad to say.

In Smith this year, for comparison, there are 35 graduating seniors on the Big Board. (18 of them are between 61 and 100, FWIW). Off the board departures are going to be very unlikely, unless a boatload of juniors and sophs displace low ranking graduating seniors by the end of the season. Possible, but not likely from where we are now.

Posted by mullycj on 4/21/2020 12:14:00 PM (view original):
"I have a list of 141 players who were listed as Staying. All are Freshmen. It's not possible for a non freshman to be listed as Staying."
Yeah, I forgot a RS freshmen is still a freshmen the next season.

"Nope, this isn't correct. A junior ranked between 28 and 100 are listed as On The Fence. A Soph ranked 28-100 is listed as Likely Staying. Those are the cut offs."
I know this. THIS ^^^^ . ... is why I say the player's class is already taken into account when determining is spot on the board.

"If you are looking at the positions on the big board, a Soph at 50 has about a 10% chance to leave early while a JR at 50 has about 40%."
Disagree. IF they are BOTH listed at 50 and "on the fence" then they have the same chance of going. The class is already factored into their board spot.

We can continue this via sitemail if you want. Dont know if we are saying the same thing from opposite directions or not.

Mully this is wrong.

Class is NOT factored into board spot. Its factored into draft outlook.

Guys don't get hung up on the 50 number I used. I just made up a random number as part of the point.

"You’ll never see anyone at #50 and “likely going”. Sophs have to be in the top 17 to get that outlook classification"
"technically class may have a *small* affect". No class has a huge effect, precisely your point above.

"His position on the BB and his class determine his outlook, and probability for leaving."
YES...so you agree with ME and not benishead!!! :)
Would you agree that a #4 JR likely going has a bigger chance of EE than a #27 JR likely going?
Would you agree that a #4 SO likely going has a bigger chance of EE than a #27 JR likely going?

Also, 38 of top 96 in Wooden are seniors. 16 more likely going and 19 on the fence of top 96. I have a junior at 97 my spreadsheet says I have a 1 in 100 ish chance of losing.

Posted by mullycj on 4/21/2020 11:55:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 4/21/2020 10:25:00 AM (view original):

Posted by mullycj on 4/21/2020 10:07:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 4/20/2020 4:50:00 PM (view original):
" but with the title winner's guys 10 spots higher"

This is way too high. The most I've seen is a jump of about 5. I've seen some title winners have players who stayed flat too. I've seen some teams with 1st round exits have players that moved up a couple spots on the big board. Honestly I haven't studied it enough but I haven't made any sense of it yet.

To cubcub-
A junior ranked 100th would have about a 35% chance of leaving and soph ranked 100th would have about a 10% chance.

Of what I've tracked, I've seen 18 non seniors ranked #1 with only 1 of them ever staying. If you expand to players ranked 1-5, it's 62/65 left early for ~95%.

Benis - I don't think you can say that based on his info. You also need to know is he is Likely staying, fence, likely leaving. That determines the % chance even more than their relative position.

School year also does not matter. Its 2 things : 1) Status (as above) and 2) # on the big board.

Cub - If you can also give me how many players are eligible to leave early I can give you what my excel file would calculate.

"school year does not matter"

A sophomore listed at 50 has a MUCH lower chance of leaving early as a Junior ranked at 50. A Likely going Sophomore has a lower chance of leaving than a Likely Going Junior.

If you just look at the top 17 ranked players where both Soph and Juniors are called Likely Going, the juniors have a ~91% chance of leaving while Soph is 87%. Not huge so maybe the sample size is too small but seems sizable to me (216 juniors and 89 sophs)

The craziest thing that no one realizes is that a Soph ranked 50th has same chance of leaving a Soph ranked 90th. A junior ranked 50th has the same chance of leaving as a junior ranked 90th.

Well this is one of the times I will disagree with you.

A players ratings, class, and outlook determine where he is placed on the Big Board. At THAT point the ONLY thing that determines his probability is his # on the board and Outlook.

So a likely going SO at 50 would have the exact same chance of leaving as a likely going JR at 50 because his "class" was already taken into account to get him into the #50 slot on the board.

PS - and yeah I agree that +95% of "staying" are FR unless they somehow redshirted.

For example in Smith world :
Leon Porter ranked #2 - Soph - likely going - has over 97% chance of leaving while
Ronald Swanson ranked #27 - Junior - likely going - has ~78% chance of leaving
The Junior isnt more apt to go because he is a JR. He is LESS likely to go because he is ranked 25 spots lower than Porter.

This is sort of like height and weight on the players stats.
A 6'6" player with a 85 rebounding isn't going to get more rebounds than a 6'1" player with 85 rebounding because the height is already considered in the rating. On the big board the class is already considered in the position.

I disagree mully.

You will notice a JR at 20 is likely going and a SO at 20 is OTF.

Posted by cubcub113 on 4/21/2020 12:36:00 PM (view original):
Also, 38 of top 96 in Wooden are seniors. 16 more likely going and 19 on the fence of top 96. I have a junior at 97 my spreadsheet says I have a 1 in 100 ish chance of losing.

6.9.1

Yeah, I mean if the draft gets to a junior at 97, his odds are probably north of 33%. But when there are 38 graduating seniors ahead of him, chances are very slim that the draft will get to 97.

"Class is NOT factored into board spot. Its factored into draft outlook. "
Chicken and the egg arguement.
Player ratings and class determine outlook.
Player ratings and class determine position on the big board.

Since I trust Beni's analysis above,
"Nope, this isn't correct. A junior ranked between 28 and 100 are listed as On The Fence. A Soph ranked 28-100 is listed as Likely Staying. Those are the cut offs."

Id say that the following occurs in this order "
First : ratings + class = position on BB
Second : class + position on BB = outlook
Third : outlook + position on BB = probability of EE

Posted by mullycj on 4/21/2020 12:28:00 PM (view original):
Guys don't get hung up on the 50 number I used. I just made up a random number as part of the point.

"You’ll never see anyone at #50 and “likely going”. Sophs have to be in the top 17 to get that outlook classification"
"technically class may have a *small* affect". No class has a huge effect, precisely your point above.

"His position on the BB and his class determine his outlook, and probability for leaving."
YES...so you agree with ME and not benishead!!! :)
Would you agree that a #4 JR likely going has a bigger chance of EE than a #27 JR likely going?
Would you agree that a #4 SO likely going has a bigger chance of EE than a #27 JR likely going?

I think the core of the small disagreement here is when you said outlook plays a part in determining position on the big board. Maybe that’s not exactly what you meant to say, and we do all basically agree.