Posted by Mwett on 5/24/2020 9:01:00 PM (view original):
First timer. From an earlier thread that started with comparing stats across eras and even year-to-year, it turned into advice that my team's arms are going to suck and why. Ok, still not a fan that there's little chance of success when I used ERA+ which does factor year-to-year league average, than the woulda coulda shoulda ERC# and K9# used here.


So, I ordered another team. Same bats, but much different arms doing it your way. There's no comparison which team did better irl even the zero factored W/L was better for my first team (TmA) 'wrong' selections, but look at the numbers and tell me how much better I should do with the new and improved TmB.

Disclaimer : both teams salary are on a shoestring budget, but I did increase from 13M to 21M and looked better at pitcher's D. Thanx in advance :

Tm#A = original arms
Tm#B = better (?) arms

ERA
A - 3.88
B - 4.04

ERC#
A - 4.63
B - 4.29

K9
A - 3.79
B - 5.56

K9#
A - 3.99
B - 5.17

ERA+
A - 109
B - 101

Defense
A: A=5, B=13, C=5, D=3
4 A+, 1 D-
B: A=10, B=8, C=6, D=2
9 A+, 0 D-

I like the increase in Ks, which I don't think is in ERC but I've heard helps (fewer balls in play; less homers ?), and Defense is much better, if that matters much as a pitcher. But both of these changes I did on my own. Other than that, did much else change for the better ? My first 3 games with Team#A, my cheap 'Aces' are 0-3. When Tm#B starts next week, they'll open with Gultz'77/Guidry'80, followed by a lot of nothing. Thanx for any additional info or advice.

Couple notes:

I don’t use era+ or erc#. I use a combination of stats (oav+, oav#, hr9+, hr9#, whip#, $/IP, and bb/9#) to sort my pitchers. I have a very specific set of parameters for each stat that limits the pitchers I select.

you mentioned your cap went from $13m to $22m, IMO it’s going to be very hard to field a competitive OL rotation with that cap. You’d likely be better off reducing your offense cap and spending closer to $30-$40m on pitching. But that’s just my suggestion, and I’m not one to tell anyone how to draft a team, just my 2 cents.

In regards to defense, that could be a different discussion, but I care more about range (If I can help it, I get A+ range at every position) than I do their fielding stat. It’s a give and take though and not every A+ range is the same!

ERC# means nothing. Throw it out and ignore it. The SIM does not use ERC to calculate the result of any batter/pitcher match-up. Nor does it use ERA+. Only raw ERA is used in any form, and even then just as an estimator of 2B and 3B rates allowed.

By far the most important numbers for pitchers are OAV, HR/9 and BB/9, but arguably the most important step of the PA outcome decision tree is whether the AB results in a hit or an out, and the only statistical inputs that come directly from the batter and pitcher in that calculation are AVG and OAV. The result is determined using batter's AVG, pitcher's OAV, their respective league averages, and some assigned matchup weights for each stat. The calculation is here:

H/AB = ((1.066*AVG * .934*OAV) / LgAVG) /

((1.066*AVG * .934*OAV) / LgAVG + (1.066- 1.066*AVG )*(.934- .934*OAV)/(1-LgAvg))

Where, LgAVG = (.934*PLgAVG + 1.066*BLgAVG)/2

There are other influences on this outcome like platoon (handedness) adjustments and park effects, and understanding the matchup weights can help guide some decisions as well, but you can go further down the rabbit hole as you play longer and read more. If you want to experience some degree of success early on to keep up interest and morale, focus your pitcher drafting decisions on the best combos of OAV, HR/9 and BB/9 relative to $/IP. Find the values and play ball.

What skunk206 and chargingryno are telling you is helpful and important, as is some of the other advice here.

Think of it this way in everyday terms:

In Fenway Park against a power lineup do you want a pitcher who strikes out very few and walks very few, meaning a lot of balls get hit? That pitcher might have a low ERA in the Astrodome, PETCO, or Dodger Stadium, but in Wrigley, Fenway, the new new videogame called Yankee Stadium, Coors, they are going to get massacred.

WHIP measures in real life how often a pitcher lets people get on base. WHIP+ measures whether that pitcher was above or below 100, meaning above or below average quality in the number allowed on base each inning. WHIP# measures how that performance compares over the many decades of baseball.

If I am in a hitters' park, I prefer a strikeout pitcher who lets as few people on base as possible, but I can live with walks if that pitcher gives up very few HR/9. If I am in an artificial turf triples and doubles park, I don't want too many walks, but can live with a higher HR/9 if the stadium makes it hard to hit the ball out of the ballpark.

A pitcher's real life ERA will incorporate things that are not the pitcher's doing, like it being a HR park, a pitcher's park, good defense by the fielders, etc.

You take the same pitcher, pitch them in a different park and you can have trouble. This is how real-life managers have to think too, this is not sabermetrics: for a century teams used their left hand starters BEFORE they got to Fenway, preferably having them pitch against the Yankees instead.

You are thinking of the ERA as the performance when it is the outcome of the performance under specific circumstances.

And yes, you need to spend closer to $40 mil on your pitching, get pitchers with WHIPs down around or below 1.00 and pay attention to the good advice by others above.

What about k/9? Shouldn't we still look for low k/9 numbers to match up with low OAV and low bb/9? Allowing the pitcher to go deeper in games? I've never used the $/IP before. Seems like that could be useful. I normally would use Babe Adams but Vance has a lower OAV# but his k/9 is much higher. Trying to locate the "best" deals in pitching. I think I would still go Adams but any advice for or against would be helpful. Thanks!

https://www.whatifsports.com/mlb-l/themewiz_playersearch.asp?pg=-1&spot=21&spotfilled=0&themeid=-1&dtid=-1&repid=0&bl=0&PreviousSearch=0&cashleft=60962298&uwl=0&ubl=0&dlcl=0&sstype=0&btnSave=false&ln=&fn=&PosList=1&mingames=0&ob0=17&ob1=0&fls=0&max=50&tn0=-1&ssList=&seasonmin=&seasonmax=&salmin=-99999999&salmax=9000000&arm=0&SeasonType=0&Awards=0&StatList_1=3_23&StatMin_1=270&StatMax_1=999&StatList_5=10_53&StatMin_5=0&StatMax_5=.50&StatList_2=5_26&StatMin_2=100&StatMax_2=999&StatList_6=12_43&StatMin_6=&StatMax_6=&StatList_3=6_42&StatMin_3=&StatMax_3=&StatList_7=11_44&StatMin_7=0&StatMax_7=2.50&StatList_4=5_33&StatMin_4=100&StatMax_4=999&StatList_8=15_49&StatMin_8=&StatMax_8=&cmdSearch=

K/9 isn't really used in the decision tree. The sim determines hit/out and even error/[-]play before it determines K or not. The only value K/9 has is in pitch counts for your starters. The higher the K rate, the more pitches per inning they can throw.