Quote: Originally Posted By swamphawk22 on 12/10/2009

Quote: Originally Posted By tropicana on 12/10/2009

Holy crap swamp...no WAY that guy should be batting fourth. Even if he's in your lineup, and your lineup is made correctly, fourth is NOT where he should be hitting. I would never, EVER bat that guy fourth.

Guys batting fourth tend to lead off innings more than any other player other than the leadoff man. You want someone with a high OBP hittign fourth. If I only have one guy on my roster with decent power and OBP, you can bet he'll be hitting fourth.




I have had this debate about lineups with people going back to the 70s.

Odd are that one of your first 3 guys is going to get on base, so your #4 hitter has a chance at a 2 run homer. I am standing by "Put your most homer guy 4th"

Incidentally, the odds are NOT that one of your first three guys are going to get on base. Let's say you've got three exceptional hitters hitting in front of the #4 guy. I'm going to say .320. That would be, I hope we can all agree, an amazing batting average. So let's go with that.

Those guys don't get on base even 1/3 of the time. How does that mean "Odds are one of them will get on base?"

I know that doesn't use any actual statistical analysis at all. And it's fairly basic. However, if you're going to play the "Odds are" card, don't you have to have a better than 50 percent chance? There's no way that could be the case here.

Actually since we are talking about getting on base the obp would be the measure. That means that since we are assuming that the first 3 guys will have an average obp of .333+ (meaning they are not on my team, lol) the odds are that one of them will get on base.

Also even if we are going hits, and they all bat .275+ the chance of a hit in 3 abs is about .825.

Earl Weaver always said "Play for a 3 run homer".

Get it right. Only about 29.67% of the time will all three guys (OBP = .333) fail to get on base. One or more will reach base about 70.33% of the time.

Quote: Originally posted by swamphawk22 on 12/10/2009Anyone not want this guy batting cleanup??

I wouldn't want that guy batting second cleanup.

Swamp, I' haven't done the checking yet, but I'm willing to bet that there are no other full-time cleanup hitters in Kaline who had fewer than 10 2Bs, fewer than 38BBs, and fewer than 33 runs scored on plays other than HRs. All these are indicative valuable contributions to run-creation at a team level.

The question of 'goodness' is not absolute. It is relative. How good is Greene, relative to the other guys that are employed by your competition to fulfill the same role on their teams? Is he a relatively good clean-up hitter? There is all kinds of sabermetric data indicating that Runs Created is a meaningful indicator of offensive value. Maybe not the best, but it is the only sabremetric-oriented stat that we have readily available in HBD.

Using that metric, I have already established that Greene is probably no better than a 40th percentile producer among all regular players, who play in pitchers parks, like Greene. Given that most clean-up hitters are better than average, it would stand to reason that he's well below the 40th percentile among clean-up hitters.

If you are interested in refuting this conclusion, you should publish the results of your comparative analysis of Greene vs other Kaline clean-up hitters.

If you are playing Home Run Derby. Greene is your guy.

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Quote: Originally posted by swamphawk22 on 12/10/2009Actually since we are talking about getting on base the obp would be the measure. That means that since we are assuming that the first 3 guys will have an average obp of .333+ (meaning they are not on my team, lol) the odds are that one of them will get on base. Also even if we are going hits, and they all bat .275+ the chance of a hit in 3 abs is about .825. Earl Weaver always said "Play for a 3 run homer".

Earl Weaver also had players like Frank Robinson, Boog Powell, and Eddie Murray hitting cleanup for him -- you know, guys who actually knew how to get on base when they weren't hitting three run home runs, thus enabling the other eight guys in the lineup to also have a chance at a three-run shot.

In fact, Earl Weaver would beat the crap out of you for suggesting your inept offensive bullsh!t was in any way related to his concept of how to construct an offense.

Quote: Originally posted by swamphawk22 on 12/09/2009It could be the cheese, but it is probably a poorly executed update.And for everyone out there wondering,
Firemanrob just said a guy who hit 60 HRs is bad!

No I didn't say "a guy," I said YOUR guy. The fact that he hit 60 HRs just shows how flawed the game was pre-update. Oh BTW, most seem to be on my side of the argument.

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I was thinking about what might make some teams do worse and some teams do better under the new update.

I wonder if the change is based around solo shots?

That would make a low obp team like mine get hit worse, and it might explain why some stars are doing worse than others, based on their supporting staff.

Just a thought.

Quote: Originally Posted By snake_p on 12/10/2009
Get it right. Only about 29.67% of the time will all three guys (OBP = .333) fail to get on base. One or more will reach base about 70.33% of the time.

Not to mention tha a .333 OBP is pretty low for your leadoff man. It's usually quite a bit higher than that. For example, my usual top 3 batters in Mattingly have OBPs of .388, .360, & .352.

.401, .369, .378 here...hell, my team average is higher than his leadoff (.337)

FYI, I play in Salt Lake

Quote: Originally Posted By chadw09 on 12/08/2009In our good world (Coop) the leading HR guy is going to be about or under 50. Only one guy is going to hit .330. The developers really screwed this one up

What? They screwed up? The new numbers are realistic. Not many guys hit .330 or 50 HRs in real life anymore.

Someone pointed this player out in world chat. I am not saying that he deserved to hit 81 homers, I am just pointing out the huge difference in power for this ONE PLAYER before and after the change.

Olmedo Cabrera

I think my problem is it seems like players with 85 power have as much home run ability as players with 98 power.