Yes they can! Holy crap. If a pitcher grooves one and a hitter mashes it to the gap - that's on the pitcher. 100%. Nothing to do with defense or "outliers" - it was a bad pitch and the hitter ripped it for a hit. The pitcher could have controled that outcome with a better pitch/location.

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 11:04:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 11:03:00 AM (view original):
Actually, I know what you'd prefer to do.

The pitcher can control how well a ball is it.  Accept that and you'll recognize that FIP doesn't measure the effectiveness of a pitcher.

A pitcher can control how well a ball is hit. They can't control whether or not that ball is caught.

Are all struck balls equally difficult to catch?   Can a pitcher not induce a weak grounder/lazy fly ball or is that all on the batter?

I'm not certain that jrd has watched a complete game of baseball in his entire life.   Maybe not even an extended AB where the batter fouls off 5-6 good pitches in order to get something better to hit. 

Better question - bottom of the ninth, 3-2 game, 2 outs, runners on 1st and 2nd. Pitcher hangs a slider that gets mashed to the LCF gap and ricochets off the wall. He ends up on second, both runs score, game over. After the game, which of the following statements do you think you'll hear from the pitcher (or anyone else for that matter):

1) "Man, that CF really blew it. If only he would have tracked that down, we'd have won this one"

OR

2) "I really missed my spot there and the hitter took advantage. If I make my pitch there, we're out of it and the game is over."

That would have no effect on his FIP.  Unimportant sequence of events.

Posted by tecwrg on 2/23/2012 11:03:00 AM (view original):

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 10:58:00 AM (view original):
A HR isn't a ball in play. I don't understand why you are arguing this point. HR aren't included in BABIP.

Are you saying that there is a substantial difference between a line drive that clears the fence by six inches and one that bangs off the wall six inches below the top?  The pitcher has control of one (because it's a HR and covered by FIP), but absolutely no influence on the other?

Still waiting for an answer to this.

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 11:05:00 AM (view original):

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 11:02:00 AM (view original):
Pitchers have control over their HR rate. They don't have control over what happens to a ball in play.

So they can control the distance and trajectory of a struck ball but nothing else?   And only whether or not it goes over the fence?

Do you even vaguely realize how stupid that sounds? 

"PItchers can control the distance and trajectory of a ball but only if it will travel 400 feet or more.  They control nothing else."

Well, I want an answer to this.

I'm still waiting to hear how a single up the middle or a ball ripped to the gap is the fielder's fault. Perhaps jrd can just write an essay and submit it

He could just resolve it by saying that location, speed, break and previous pitches are key components to any particular AB and that those things are 100% controlled by the pitcher.

OK.  Well I guess you guys must be right.  People that study this stuff for a living are probably just mistaken.  It's obvious that a pitcher can control what happens to a ball in play.  Just take a look at some career BABIP numbers:

Roger Clemens     .286
Randy Johnson     .295
AJ Burnett                293
Javier Vasquez      .299
Felix Hernandex    .299
Tim Stauffer            .291
Pedro Martinez       .282
Greg Maddux          .286
Dice-K                      .292
Barry Zito                 .271
Jeremy Guthrie       .274
Tim Lincecum         .298
Roy Halladay           .295
JOhn Danks            .292

Yep, those guys all look about the same to me.  There is definitely pitcher control over what happens to balls in play. 

Can we claim "outliers" or did you patent it?

In the history of baseball, you chose 14 players to represent your point.    Color me skeptical.    And, with a few exceptions, most of those were considered one of the tops in the game at some point during their career.   With the average BABIP around .300ish, it's not that surprising that they're all below it.

What I have not seen mentioned, and I am surprised no one has brought it up.....   was some pitchers have more grit, determination and heart than others.  And you cant get that from a statistic.

Nolan Ryan walked many batters and allowed many baserunners per 9ip throughout his career (more so in the earlier stages, but still a good number through the 80s and 90-91).  However, when there were less than 2 outs and a runner at 3rd, when he NEEDED the strikeout....   He found a way to get that strikeout.  He also allowed very few balls in play.  But he allowed fewer balls in play than his normal when his opposition needed them the most.  He rose to the occasion.  It has been said by many ex-ballplayers that the pitcher that they wanted to face the least was Nolan Ryan.  Nolan Ryan's statistical accomplishments (other than MLB best K totals) are good.  But not among the best of all time.  However, if I needed one out.  Just one out in a key situation....   I'll take Nolan Ryan.

Stat-nerds don't believe any such thing is possible.   No point in bringing it up.

If a pitcher can only control walks, whiffs and homers, determination has no chance.

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 12:14:00 PM (view original):
Can we claim "outliers" or did you patent it?

In the history of baseball, you chose 14 players to represent your point.    Color me skeptical.    And, with a few exceptions, most of those were considered one of the tops in the game at some point during their career.   With the average BABIP around .300ish, it's not that surprising that they're all below it.

You want more?  I'm literally picking pitchers at random.

Brandon Morrow .303
Ervin Santana      .292
Dan Haren            .292
Kevin Correia       .302
Cory Luebke         .276
Jeff Francis           .314
Justin Masterson  .307
Brandon McCarthy .281
Jair Jurjens             .286
Freddy Garcia          .286
CC Sabathia            .294
Chris Capuano        .305

A few good ones at the top.  A bunch of lesser ones at the bottom.   Are you proving my point?